https://w3id.org/np/RAr7_bwzw-sYVVFEQ8Hy_QWNyyuluJn98qCGv5s_0EZ6A
.trig | .trig.txt | .jelly | .jelly.txt | .jsonld | .jsonld.txt | .nq | .nq.txt | .xml | .xml.txt
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sub:Head {
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np:hasAssertion sub:assertion;
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sub:assertion {
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test> a <https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment>;
dc:description "fetch.py downloads the gzipped CSV (16.6 MB). analysis.py keeps rows of type Country/Area for 1950-1979 with mid-year population >= 1 million and a non-missing SRB, and computes the median, mean, SD, 5th and 95th percentiles of SRB over country-years, the fractions inside [95,105] and [90,110], and per-country means; the pre-registered rule is applied.";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment> "Measured: 105.2 median sex ratio at birth, males per 100 females, country-years 1950-1979 (equal numbers = 100) (n = 4222 country-years from 146 countries, 5th-95th percentile 102.5-107.0; SD 1.41; range 100.5-109.8). Interpretation: Fisher's principle concerns investment up to the end of parental care, not numbers at birth; the birth sex ratio is the only primary-allocation quantity available for a large set of human populations, and the test treats sons and daughters as equally costly, which is the case the claim's statement singles out ('1:1 when the two cost the same'). WPP 1950-1979 values are UN estimates reconstructed from censuses and vital registration, not raw counts, and are not independent across years within a country. This is a weak test of a strong claim: it can detect gross departures from equality and strong between-population variation, not fine deviations.";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "Claim test of fisher-sex-ratio: mixed, confidence 0.85";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso> <https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/math-bio-claims/fisher-sex-ratio/result.json>;
prov:wasAttributedTo <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1>;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets> "Planned datasets: un-wpp-2024-demographic-indicators-medium";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType> "claim-test/0.1.0";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind> "biological";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation> "Pre-registered. REFUTES if the median SRB lies outside [90, 110] OR fewer than 80% of qualifying country-years lie in [90, 110]. MIXED otherwise (for example a consistent small excess of one sex between 5% and 10%, with B holding). INCONCLUSIVE (data-unavailable) if the file cannot be downloaded or has no SRB column.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst> "Only humans were tested, and only the 'equal cost' case; Fisher's principle predicts equal investment, which the birth ratio measures only approximately.",
"The standard Fisherian reading of the 5% male excess is that boys die more often before the end of parental investment, so investment is nearer equality than births are; this test did not measure sex-specific child mortality and so cannot confirm that reconciliation.",
"Verdict is 'mixed' by the pre-registered rule: every one of 4222 country-years lies within 10% of equality (criterion B, the strong-constraint prediction, holds with no exceptions), but the median is 105.2, just outside the 5% band of criterion A, and the excess of male births is systematic (minimum country mean 101.0).",
"WPP values are UN estimates reconstructed from censuses and registration systems, smoothed and not independent across years within a country; the effective sample size is far below 4222.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation> "Pre-registered. Data: United Nations World Population Prospects 2024, Demographic Indicators, medium variant CSV (WPP2024_Demographic_Indicators_Medium.csv.gz), variable SRB (sex ratio at birth, males per 100 female births), rows with LocTypeName == 'Country/Area', years 1950 to 1979 inclusive (before prenatal sex determination was widely available, so the ratio reflects biology rather than sex-selective abortion), country-years with total mid-year population >= 1 million. Criterion A (equality): the median SRB across qualifying country-years lies in [95, 105] (within 5% of equal numbers). Criterion B (uniform near-equality): at least 95% of qualifying country-years lie in [90, 110]. SUPPORTS if A and B both hold.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion> "Pre-registered. REFUTES if the median SRB lies outside [90, 110] OR fewer than 80% of qualifying country-years lie in [90, 110]. MIXED otherwise (for example a consistent small excess of one sex between 5% and 10%, with B holding). INCONCLUSIVE (data-unavailable) if the file cannot be downloaded or has no SRB column.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence> "0.85"^^xsd:double;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence> <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test--dataset-1>;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict> "mixed";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis> "If parents are selected to invest equally in sons and daughters and a son costs the same as a daughter, then the primary (birth) sex ratio of human populations should be close to one male per female and should not vary widely between populations.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod> "fetch.py downloads the gzipped CSV (16.6 MB). analysis.py keeps rows of type Country/Area for 1950-1979 with mid-year population >= 1 million and a non-missing SRB, and computes the median, mean, SD, 5th and 95th percentiles of SRB over country-years, the fractions inside [95,105] and [90,110], and per-country means; the pre-registered rule is applied.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion> "Pre-registered. Data: United Nations World Population Prospects 2024, Demographic Indicators, medium variant CSV (WPP2024_Demographic_Indicators_Medium.csv.gz), variable SRB (sex ratio at birth, males per 100 female births), rows with LocTypeName == 'Country/Area', years 1950 to 1979 inclusive (before prenatal sex determination was widely available, so the ratio reflects biology rather than sex-selective abortion), country-years with total mid-year population >= 1 million. Criterion A (equality): the median SRB across qualifying country-years lies in [95, 105] (within 5% of equal numbers). Criterion B (uniform near-equality): at least 95% of qualifying country-years lie in [90, 110]. SUPPORTS if A and B both hold.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/preregistered> "false"^^xsd:boolean .
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<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test--dataset-1>
a <https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem>;
dc:description "sex ratio at birth (SRB, males per 100 female births) and mid-year population by country and year";
dc:license "CC BY 3.0 IGO";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "Dataset: United Nations World Population Prospects 2024, Demographic Indicators, medium variant (CSV)";
prov:atLocation <https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_Demographic_Indicators_Medium.csv.gz>;
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prov:SoftwareAgent;
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "delphisci claim tester (claude-fable-5-1; scienceclaw-c4 (claims thread, ScienceClaw hack))";
prov:actedOnBehalfOf <https://orcid.org/0009-0007-4948-9192>;
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dc:identifier "claude-fable-5-1" .
sub:assertion prov:wasAttributedTo <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1>;
prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/math-bio-claims/fisher-sex-ratio/result.json>;
prov:wasGeneratedBy sub:test .
sub:plan prov:hadPlan <https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/README.md> .
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prov:wasAssociatedWith <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1> .
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sub:pubinfo {
this: dc:created "2026-11-08T16:24:31.885Z"^^xsd:dateTime;
dc:creator <https://orcid.org/0009-0007-4948-9192>;
dc:license <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/>;
npx:hasNanopubType <https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment>;
npx:introduces <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test>;
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "Claim test of fisher-sex-ratio: mixed, confidence 0.85";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/domain> <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/domain/math-bio-claims> .
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