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Interpretation: Fisher\'s principle concerns investment up to the end of parental care, not numbers at birth; the birth sex ratio is the only primary-allocation quantity available for a large set of human populations, and the test treats sons and daughters as equally costly, which is the case the claim\'s statement singles out (\'1:1 when the two cost the same\'). WPP 1950-1979 values are UN estimates reconstructed from censuses and vital registration, not raw counts, and are not independent across years within a country. This is a weak test of a strong claim: it can detect gross departures from equality and strong between-population variation, not fine deviations." } } } rows { name { value: "label" } } rows { quad { p_iri { } o_literal { lex: "Claim test of fisher-sex-ratio: mixed, confidence 0.85" } } } rows { name { value: "seeAlso" } } rows { prefix { value: "https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/math-bio-claims/fisher-sex-ratio/" } } rows { name { value: "result.json" } } rows { quad { p_iri { } o_iri { prefix_id: 12 } } } rows { name { value: "wasAttributedTo" } } rows { prefix { value: "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/" } } rows { name { value: "delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1" } } rows { quad { p_iri { prefix_id: 5 } o_iri { prefix_id: 13 } } } rows { name { value: "admissibleDatasets" } } rows { quad { p_iri { prefix_id: 10 } o_literal { lex: "Planned datasets: un-wpp-2024-demographic-indicators-medium" } } } rows { name { value: "assessmentType" } } rows { quad { p_iri { } o_literal { lex: "claim-test/0.1.0" } } } rows { name { value: "dataKind" } } rows { quad { p_iri { } o_literal { lex: "biological" } } } rows { name { value: "disconfirmingObservation" } } rows { quad { p_iri { } o_literal { lex: "Pre-registered. REFUTES if the median SRB lies outside [90, 110] OR fewer than 80% of qualifying country-years lie in [90, 110]. MIXED otherwise (for example a consistent small excess of one sex between 5% and 10%, with B holding). INCONCLUSIVE (data-unavailable) if the file cannot be downloaded or has no SRB column." } } } rows { name { value: "evidenceAgainst" } } rows { quad { p_iri { } o_literal { lex: "Only humans were tested, and only the \'equal cost\' case; Fisher\'s principle predicts equal investment, which the birth ratio measures only approximately." } } } rows { quad { o_literal { lex: "The standard Fisherian reading of the 5% male excess is that boys die more often before the end of parental investment, so investment is nearer equality than births are; this test did not measure sex-specific child mortality and so cannot confirm that reconciliation." } } } rows { quad { o_literal { lex: "Verdict is \'mixed\' by the pre-registered rule: every one of 4222 country-years lies within 10% of equality (criterion B, the strong-constraint prediction, holds with no exceptions), but the median is 105.2, just outside the 5% band of criterion A, and the excess of male births is systematic (minimum country mean 101.0)." } } } rows { quad { o_literal { lex: "WPP values are UN estimates reconstructed from censuses and registration systems, smoothed and not independent across years within a country; the effective sample size is far below 4222." } } } rows { name { value: "expectedObservation" } } rows { quad { p_iri { } o_literal { lex: "Pre-registered. Data: United Nations World Population Prospects 2024, Demographic Indicators, medium variant CSV (WPP2024_Demographic_Indicators_Medium.csv.gz), variable SRB (sex ratio at birth, males per 100 female births), rows with LocTypeName == \'Country/Area\', years 1950 to 1979 inclusive (before prenatal sex determination was widely available, so the ratio reflects biology rather than sex-selective abortion), country-years with total mid-year population >= 1 million. Criterion A (equality): the median SRB across qualifying country-years lies in [95, 105] (within 5% of equal numbers). Criterion B (uniform near-equality): at least 95% of qualifying country-years lie in [90, 110]. SUPPORTS if A and B both hold." } } } rows { name { value: "failCriterion" } } rows { quad { p_iri { } o_literal { lex: "Pre-registered. REFUTES if the median SRB lies outside [90, 110] OR fewer than 80% of qualifying country-years lie in [90, 110]. MIXED otherwise (for example a consistent small excess of one sex between 5% and 10%, with B holding). INCONCLUSIVE (data-unavailable) if the file cannot be downloaded or has no SRB column." } } } rows { name { value: "hasConfidence" } } rows { datatype { value: "http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#double" } } rows { quad { p_iri { } o_literal { lex: "0.85" datatype: 1 } } } rows { name { value: "hasEvidence" } } rows { prefix { value: "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/" } } rows { name { value: "fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test--dataset-1" } } rows { quad { p_iri { } o_iri { prefix_id: 14 } } } rows { name { value: "hasVerdict" } } rows { quad { p_iri { prefix_id: 10 } o_literal { lex: "mixed" } } } rows { name { value: "hypothesis" } } rows { quad { p_iri { } o_literal { lex: "If parents are selected to invest equally in sons and daughters and a son costs the same as a daughter, then the primary (birth) sex ratio of human populations should be close to one male per female and should not vary widely between populations." } } } rows { name { value: "inferenceMethod" } } rows { quad { p_iri { } o_literal { lex: "fetch.py downloads the gzipped CSV (16.6 MB). analysis.py keeps rows of type Country/Area for 1950-1979 with mid-year population >= 1 million and a non-missing SRB, and computes the median, mean, SD, 5th and 95th percentiles of SRB over country-years, the fractions inside [95,105] and [90,110], and per-country means; the pre-registered rule is applied." } } } rows { name { value: "passCriterion" } } rows { quad { p_iri { } o_literal { lex: "Pre-registered. Data: United Nations World Population Prospects 2024, Demographic Indicators, medium variant CSV (WPP2024_Demographic_Indicators_Medium.csv.gz), variable SRB (sex ratio at birth, males per 100 female births), rows with LocTypeName == \'Country/Area\', years 1950 to 1979 inclusive (before prenatal sex determination was widely available, so the ratio reflects biology rather than sex-selective abortion), country-years with total mid-year population >= 1 million. Criterion A (equality): the median SRB across qualifying country-years lies in [95, 105] (within 5% of equal numbers). Criterion B (uniform near-equality): at least 95% of qualifying country-years lie in [90, 110]. SUPPORTS if A and B both hold." } } } rows { name { value: "preregistered" } } rows { datatype { value: "http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#boolean" } } rows { quad { p_iri { } o_literal { lex: "false" datatype: 2 } } } rows { prefix { value: "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/claim/" } } rows { name { value: "fisher-sex-ratio" } } rows { name { value: "hasAssessment" } } rows { quad { s_iri { prefix_id: 15 } p_iri { prefix_id: 10 } o_iri { prefix_id: 9 name_id: 12 } } } rows { quad { s_iri { prefix_id: 14 name_id: 30 } p_iri { prefix_id: 7 name_id: 13 } o_literal { lex: "sex ratio at birth (SRB, males per 100 female births) and mid-year population by country and year" } } } rows { name { value: "license" } } rows { quad { p_iri { name_id: 38 } o_literal { lex: "CC BY 3.0 IGO" } } } rows { name { value: "EvidenceItem" } } rows { quad { p_iri { prefix_id: 4 name_id: 10 } o_iri { prefix_id: 10 name_id: 39 } } } rows { quad { p_iri { prefix_id: 11 name_id: 16 } o_literal { lex: "Dataset: United Nations World Population Prospects 2024, Demographic Indicators, medium variant (CSV)" } } } rows { name { value: "atLocation" } } rows { prefix { value: "https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/" } } rows { name { value: "WPP2024_Demographic_Indicators_Medium.csv.gz" } } rows { quad { p_iri { prefix_id: 5 name_id: 40 } o_iri { prefix_id: 16 } } } rows { name { value: "wasDerivedFrom" } } rows { prefix { id: 6 value: "https://population.un.org/wpp/" } } rows { quad { p_iri { prefix_id: 5 } o_iri { prefix_id: 6 name_id: 2 } } } rows { name { value: "hasChecksum" } } rows { quad { p_iri { prefix_id: 10 name_id: 43 } o_literal { lex: "sha256:286ac36bb1415e2e1ade03acfef0a29f0e4c087e2f78e38c48f50c5df89082bc" } } } rows { name { value: "SoftwareAgent" } } rows { quad { s_iri { prefix_id: 13 name_id: 20 } p_iri { prefix_id: 4 name_id: 10 } o_iri { prefix_id: 5 name_id: 44 } g_iri { prefix_id: 2 name_id: 7 } } } rows { quad { p_iri { prefix_id: 11 name_id: 16 } o_literal { lex: "delphisci claim tester (claude-fable-5-1; scienceclaw-c4 (claims thread, ScienceClaw hack))" } } } rows { name { value: "actedOnBehalfOf" } } rows { prefix { id: 8 value: "https://orcid.org/" } } rows { name { value: "0009-0007-4948-9192" } } rows { quad { p_iri { prefix_id: 5 name_id: 45 } o_iri { prefix_id: 8 } } } rows { name { value: "usesModel" } } rows { prefix { id: 1 value: "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/model/" } } rows { name { value: "claude-fable-5-1" } } rows { quad { p_iri { prefix_id: 10 } o_iri { prefix_id: 1 } } } rows { name { value: "identifier" } } rows { quad { s_iri { name_id: 48 } p_iri { prefix_id: 7 } o_literal { lex: "claude-fable-5-1" } } } rows { name { value: "LanguageModel" } } rows { quad { p_iri { prefix_id: 4 name_id: 10 } o_iri { prefix_id: 10 name_id: 50 } } } rows { quad { s_iri { prefix_id: 2 name_id: 4 } p_iri { prefix_id: 5 name_id: 19 } o_iri { prefix_id: 13 } } } rows { quad { p_iri { prefix_id: 5 name_id: 42 } o_iri { prefix_id: 12 name_id: 18 } } } rows { name { value: "wasGeneratedBy" } } rows { name { value: "test" } } rows { quad { p_iri { prefix_id: 5 name_id: 51 } o_iri { prefix_id: 2 } } } rows { name { value: "plan" } } rows { name { value: "hadPlan" } } rows { prefix { id: 3 value: "https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/" } } rows { name { value: "README.md" } } rows { quad { s_iri { } p_iri { prefix_id: 5 } o_iri { prefix_id: 3 } } } rows { name { value: "Activity" } } rows { quad { s_iri { prefix_id: 2 name_id: 52 } p_iri { prefix_id: 4 name_id: 10 } o_iri { prefix_id: 5 name_id: 56 } } } rows { name { value: "qualifiedAssociation" } } rows { quad { p_iri { } o_iri { prefix_id: 2 name_id: 53 } } } rows { name { value: "wasAssociatedWith" } } rows { quad { p_iri { prefix_id: 5 name_id: 58 } o_iri { prefix_id: 13 name_id: 20 } } } rows { prefix { id: 15 value: "https://w3id.org/np/" } } rows { name { value: "created" } } rows { datatype { value: "http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#dateTime" } } rows { quad { s_iri { prefix_id: 15 name_id: 1 } p_iri { prefix_id: 7 name_id: 59 } o_literal { lex: "2026-11-08T16:24:31.885Z" datatype: 3 } g_iri { prefix_id: 2 name_id: 9 } } } rows { name { value: "creator" } } rows { quad { p_iri { prefix_id: 7 name_id: 60 } o_iri { prefix_id: 8 name_id: 46 } } } rows { prefix { id: 9 value: "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" } } rows { quad { p_iri { prefix_id: 7 name_id: 38 } o_iri { prefix_id: 9 name_id: 2 } } } rows { prefix { id: 14 value: "http://purl.org/nanopub/x/" } } rows { name { value: "hasNanopubType" } } rows { quad { p_iri { prefix_id: 14 name_id: 61 } o_iri { prefix_id: 10 name_id: 14 } } } rows { name { value: "introduces" } } rows { prefix { id: 16 value: "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/" } } rows { quad { p_iri { prefix_id: 14 name_id: 62 } o_iri { prefix_id: 16 name_id: 12 } } } rows { quad { p_iri { prefix_id: 11 name_id: 16 } o_literal { lex: "Claim test of fisher-sex-ratio: mixed, confidence 0.85" } } } rows { name { value: "domain" } } rows { prefix { id: 6 value: "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/domain/" } } rows { name { value: "math-bio-claims" } } rows { quad { p_iri { prefix_id: 10 name_id: 63 } o_iri { prefix_id: 6 } } } rows { name { value: "sig" } } rows { name { value: "hasAlgorithm" } } rows { quad { s_iri { prefix_id: 2 } p_iri { prefix_id: 14 } o_literal { lex: "RSA" } } } rows { name { value: "hasPublicKey" } } rows { quad { p_iri { } o_literal { lex: "MIIBIjANBgkqhkiG9w0BAQEFAAOCAQ8AMIIBCgKCAQEAyFHtPB6p0mCjDozxlOY9CmO3nBm7Te3jFbXyLmM+G1tGe47Da0jYIbhkl9Oo1ZjxmCa3LCwlEqK8gj6hEIcL4ahW30JXh9HycfKVk1bugkzMEV15tJdTzAU3sGMFnbNsn43xY2LFLy45tApkRm5byEiM7oRRrooIdwoQKnP4Wzq/bfAoJ9qvW+MGkelyOTd1jbSt+KfmT7xKmDfWzAHddUlWwMX2QJOLxDaffOteTop6ZRgPiNmPJKA/S62Gac9XtSYT3oDkZ6/nr5cxxNLpOyxTf5FPISiCe11xYO/unYjY+mwnOfA8yhJIyx1l0O9I0vpOpn+E5TvyHJV+oSTrvwIDAQAB" } } } rows { name { value: "hasSignature" } } rows { quad { p_iri { } o_literal { lex: "LkkCByXhtLyQSvlinFThXVAZgfZL1nWD5VzFDAs+vi7rQy4/l/K9+g+uRKcIJVdUPg+1lVrhrzvtTzyxxPHGiEOjo7/FX3ZbgVFsLv82bY0iBZXyflJ8ULnQXZ8zz01O0VEsj3MrYlVruDMuNZu1INk0eHg/l+pr4guyL136HHMySjy2EqMm0KwIg39Z2crrCSW2i3fGj42t2pihDG2J2g+kjSV8fanF0FDmXo42/ZMP9eF5G7K/llzNGmdtOgAGYNumutBsKCj8ztRmRfzVl2wvAPyQkyo5PVNIfOLUz9jyfnxhLzPbQnKaQVrzu0ZJ41MAyeOBEiRFkTYbLv8cBA==" } } } rows { name { value: "hasSignatureTarget" } } rows { quad { p_iri { } o_iri { prefix_id: 15 name_id: 1 } } } rows { name { value: "signedBy" } } rows { quad { p_iri { prefix_id: 14 name_id: 70 } o_iri { prefix_id: 8 name_id: 46 } } }