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the pre-registered rule is applied." } ], "@type": [ "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment" ], "http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment": [ { "@value": "Measured: 105.2 median sex ratio at birth, males per 100 females, country-years 1950-1979 (equal numbers = 100) (n = 4222 country-years from 146 countries, 5th-95th percentile 102.5-107.0; SD 1.41; range 100.5-109.8). Interpretation: Fisher's principle concerns investment up to the end of parental care, not numbers at birth; the birth sex ratio is the only primary-allocation quantity available for a large set of human populations, and the test treats sons and daughters as equally costly, which is the case the claim's statement singles out ('1:1 when the two cost the same'). WPP 1950-1979 values are UN estimates reconstructed from censuses and vital registration, not raw counts, and are not independent across years within a country. This is a weak test of a strong claim: it can detect gross departures from equality and strong between-population variation, not fine deviations." } ], "http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label": [ { "@value": "Claim test of fisher-sex-ratio: mixed, confidence 0.85" } ], "http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso": [ { "@id": "https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/math-bio-claims/fisher-sex-ratio/result.json" } ], "http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets": [ { "@value": "Planned datasets: un-wpp-2024-demographic-indicators-medium" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType": [ { "@value": "claim-test/0.1.0" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind": [ { "@value": "biological" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation": [ { "@value": "Pre-registered. REFUTES if the median SRB lies outside [90, 110] OR fewer than 80% of qualifying country-years lie in [90, 110]. MIXED otherwise (for example a consistent small excess of one sex between 5% and 10%, with B holding). INCONCLUSIVE (data-unavailable) if the file cannot be downloaded or has no SRB column." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst": [ { "@value": "Only humans were tested, and only the 'equal cost' case; Fisher's principle predicts equal investment, which the birth ratio measures only approximately." }, { "@value": "The standard Fisherian reading of the 5% male excess is that boys die more often before the end of parental investment, so investment is nearer equality than births are; this test did not measure sex-specific child mortality and so cannot confirm that reconciliation." }, { "@value": "Verdict is 'mixed' by the pre-registered rule: every one of 4222 country-years lies within 10% of equality (criterion B, the strong-constraint prediction, holds with no exceptions), but the median is 105.2, just outside the 5% band of criterion A, and the excess of male births is systematic (minimum country mean 101.0)." }, { "@value": "WPP values are UN estimates reconstructed from censuses and registration systems, smoothed and not independent across years within a country; the effective sample size is far below 4222." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation": [ { "@value": "Pre-registered. Data: United Nations World Population Prospects 2024, Demographic Indicators, medium variant CSV (WPP2024_Demographic_Indicators_Medium.csv.gz), variable SRB (sex ratio at birth, males per 100 female births), rows with LocTypeName == 'Country/Area', years 1950 to 1979 inclusive (before prenatal sex determination was widely available, so the ratio reflects biology rather than sex-selective abortion), country-years with total mid-year population >= 1 million. Criterion A (equality): the median SRB across qualifying country-years lies in [95, 105] (within 5% of equal numbers). Criterion B (uniform near-equality): at least 95% of qualifying country-years lie in [90, 110]. SUPPORTS if A and B both hold." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion": [ { "@value": "Pre-registered. REFUTES if the median SRB lies outside [90, 110] OR fewer than 80% of qualifying country-years lie in [90, 110]. MIXED otherwise (for example a consistent small excess of one sex between 5% and 10%, with B holding). INCONCLUSIVE (data-unavailable) if the file cannot be downloaded or has no SRB column." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence": [ { "@value": "0.85", "@type": "http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#double" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test--dataset-1" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict": [ { "@value": "mixed" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis": [ { "@value": "If parents are selected to invest equally in sons and daughters and a son costs the same as a daughter, then the primary (birth) sex ratio of human populations should be close to one male per female and should not vary widely between populations." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod": [ { "@value": "fetch.py downloads the gzipped CSV (16.6 MB). analysis.py keeps rows of type Country/Area for 1950-1979 with mid-year population >= 1 million and a non-missing SRB, and computes the median, mean, SD, 5th and 95th percentiles of SRB over country-years, the fractions inside [95,105] and [90,110], and per-country means; the pre-registered rule is applied." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion": [ { "@value": "Pre-registered. Data: United Nations World Population Prospects 2024, Demographic Indicators, medium variant CSV (WPP2024_Demographic_Indicators_Medium.csv.gz), variable SRB (sex ratio at birth, males per 100 female births), rows with LocTypeName == 'Country/Area', years 1950 to 1979 inclusive (before prenatal sex determination was widely available, so the ratio reflects biology rather than sex-selective abortion), country-years with total mid-year population >= 1 million. Criterion A (equality): the median SRB across qualifying country-years lies in [95, 105] (within 5% of equal numbers). Criterion B (uniform near-equality): at least 95% of qualifying country-years lie in [90, 110]. SUPPORTS if A and B both hold." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/preregistered": [ { "@value": "false", "@type": "http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#boolean" } ] }, { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test--dataset-1", "http://purl.org/dc/terms/description": [ { "@value": "sex ratio at birth (SRB, males per 100 female births) and mid-year population by country and year" } ], "http://purl.org/dc/terms/license": [ { "@value": "CC BY 3.0 IGO" } ], "@type": [ "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem" ], "http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label": [ { "@value": "Dataset: United Nations World Population Prospects 2024, Demographic Indicators, medium variant (CSV)" } ], "http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation": [ { "@id": "https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_Demographic_Indicators_Medium.csv.gz" } ], "http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasDerivedFrom": [ { "@id": "https://population.un.org/wpp/" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasChecksum": [ { "@value": "sha256:286ac36bb1415e2e1ade03acfef0a29f0e4c087e2f78e38c48f50c5df89082bc" } ] }, { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/claim/fisher-sex-ratio", "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasAssessment": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test" } ] } ] } ]