https://w3id.org/np/RAr7_bwzw-sYVVFEQ8Hy_QWNyyuluJn98qCGv5s_0EZ6A/Head https://w3id.org/np/RAr7_bwzw-sYVVFEQ8Hy_QWNyyuluJn98qCGv5s_0EZ6A http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion https://w3id.org/np/RAr7_bwzw-sYVVFEQ8Hy_QWNyyuluJn98qCGv5s_0EZ6A/assertion https://w3id.org/np/RAr7_bwzw-sYVVFEQ8Hy_QWNyyuluJn98qCGv5s_0EZ6A http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasProvenance https://w3id.org/np/RAr7_bwzw-sYVVFEQ8Hy_QWNyyuluJn98qCGv5s_0EZ6A/provenance https://w3id.org/np/RAr7_bwzw-sYVVFEQ8Hy_QWNyyuluJn98qCGv5s_0EZ6A http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasPublicationInfo https://w3id.org/np/RAr7_bwzw-sYVVFEQ8Hy_QWNyyuluJn98qCGv5s_0EZ6A/pubinfo https://w3id.org/np/RAr7_bwzw-sYVVFEQ8Hy_QWNyyuluJn98qCGv5s_0EZ6A http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#Nanopublication https://w3id.org/np/RAr7_bwzw-sYVVFEQ8Hy_QWNyyuluJn98qCGv5s_0EZ6A/assertion https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test http://purl.org/dc/terms/description fetch.py downloads the gzipped CSV (16.6 MB). analysis.py keeps rows of type Country/Area for 1950-1979 with mid-year population >= 1 million and a non-missing SRB, and computes the median, mean, SD, 5th and 95th percentiles of SRB over country-years, the fractions inside [95,105] and [90,110], and per-country means; the pre-registered rule is applied. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment Measured: 105.2 median sex ratio at birth, males per 100 females, country-years 1950-1979 (equal numbers = 100) (n = 4222 country-years from 146 countries, 5th-95th percentile 102.5-107.0; SD 1.41; range 100.5-109.8). Interpretation: Fisher's principle concerns investment up to the end of parental care, not numbers at birth; the birth sex ratio is the only primary-allocation quantity available for a large set of human populations, and the test treats sons and daughters as equally costly, which is the case the claim's statement singles out ('1:1 when the two cost the same'). WPP 1950-1979 values are UN estimates reconstructed from censuses and vital registration, not raw counts, and are not independent across years within a country. This is a weak test of a strong claim: it can detect gross departures from equality and strong between-population variation, not fine deviations. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Claim test of fisher-sex-ratio: mixed, confidence 0.85 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/math-bio-claims/fisher-sex-ratio/result.json https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets Planned datasets: un-wpp-2024-demographic-indicators-medium https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType claim-test/0.1.0 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind biological https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation Pre-registered. REFUTES if the median SRB lies outside [90, 110] OR fewer than 80% of qualifying country-years lie in [90, 110]. MIXED otherwise (for example a consistent small excess of one sex between 5% and 10%, with B holding). INCONCLUSIVE (data-unavailable) if the file cannot be downloaded or has no SRB column. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Only humans were tested, and only the 'equal cost' case; Fisher's principle predicts equal investment, which the birth ratio measures only approximately. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst The standard Fisherian reading of the 5% male excess is that boys die more often before the end of parental investment, so investment is nearer equality than births are; this test did not measure sex-specific child mortality and so cannot confirm that reconciliation. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Verdict is 'mixed' by the pre-registered rule: every one of 4222 country-years lies within 10% of equality (criterion B, the strong-constraint prediction, holds with no exceptions), but the median is 105.2, just outside the 5% band of criterion A, and the excess of male births is systematic (minimum country mean 101.0). https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst WPP values are UN estimates reconstructed from censuses and registration systems, smoothed and not independent across years within a country; the effective sample size is far below 4222. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation Pre-registered. Data: United Nations World Population Prospects 2024, Demographic Indicators, medium variant CSV (WPP2024_Demographic_Indicators_Medium.csv.gz), variable SRB (sex ratio at birth, males per 100 female births), rows with LocTypeName == 'Country/Area', years 1950 to 1979 inclusive (before prenatal sex determination was widely available, so the ratio reflects biology rather than sex-selective abortion), country-years with total mid-year population >= 1 million. Criterion A (equality): the median SRB across qualifying country-years lies in [95, 105] (within 5% of equal numbers). Criterion B (uniform near-equality): at least 95% of qualifying country-years lie in [90, 110]. SUPPORTS if A and B both hold. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion Pre-registered. REFUTES if the median SRB lies outside [90, 110] OR fewer than 80% of qualifying country-years lie in [90, 110]. MIXED otherwise (for example a consistent small excess of one sex between 5% and 10%, with B holding). INCONCLUSIVE (data-unavailable) if the file cannot be downloaded or has no SRB column. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence 0.85 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict mixed https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis If parents are selected to invest equally in sons and daughters and a son costs the same as a daughter, then the primary (birth) sex ratio of human populations should be close to one male per female and should not vary widely between populations. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod fetch.py downloads the gzipped CSV (16.6 MB). analysis.py keeps rows of type Country/Area for 1950-1979 with mid-year population >= 1 million and a non-missing SRB, and computes the median, mean, SD, 5th and 95th percentiles of SRB over country-years, the fractions inside [95,105] and [90,110], and per-country means; the pre-registered rule is applied. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion Pre-registered. Data: United Nations World Population Prospects 2024, Demographic Indicators, medium variant CSV (WPP2024_Demographic_Indicators_Medium.csv.gz), variable SRB (sex ratio at birth, males per 100 female births), rows with LocTypeName == 'Country/Area', years 1950 to 1979 inclusive (before prenatal sex determination was widely available, so the ratio reflects biology rather than sex-selective abortion), country-years with total mid-year population >= 1 million. Criterion A (equality): the median SRB across qualifying country-years lies in [95, 105] (within 5% of equal numbers). Criterion B (uniform near-equality): at least 95% of qualifying country-years lie in [90, 110]. SUPPORTS if A and B both hold. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/preregistered false https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/claim/fisher-sex-ratio https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasAssessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test--dataset-1 http://purl.org/dc/terms/description sex ratio at birth (SRB, males per 100 female births) and mid-year population by country and year https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test--dataset-1 http://purl.org/dc/terms/license CC BY 3.0 IGO https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Dataset: United Nations World Population Prospects 2024, Demographic Indicators, medium variant (CSV) https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2024_Demographic_Indicators_Medium.csv.gz https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasDerivedFrom https://population.un.org/wpp/ https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/fisher-sex-ratio--claim-test--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasChecksum sha256:286ac36bb1415e2e1ade03acfef0a29f0e4c087e2f78e38c48f50c5df89082bc https://w3id.org/np/RAr7_bwzw-sYVVFEQ8Hy_QWNyyuluJn98qCGv5s_0EZ6A/provenance https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#SoftwareAgent https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label delphisci claim tester (claude-fable-5-1; 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