https://w3id.org/np/RA17GiZ-XvQ_dZO3L2IH_5z8epD_rcjetT7G6jpwsUFHQ
.trig | .trig.txt | .jelly | .jelly.txt | .jsonld | .jsonld.txt | .nq | .nq.txt | .xml | .xml.txt
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<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test> a <https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment>;
dc:description "Downloaded NHANES DEMO and BMX files for the six 2007-2018 cycles, merged on SEQN, kept examined persons under 20 years with a stature measurement (recumbent length below 24 months, standing height from 24 months; n = 23551, boys 12038, girls 11513). For each sex, median stature by completed year of age gave the model-free yearly velocity v(a); a local-linear Gaussian-kernel smoother (SD 0.5 yr; 0.75 and 1.0 yr as sensitivity) on monthly medians gave the smoothed velocity curve on a monthly grid. Bootstrap over individuals (1000 resamples) gave 95% CIs for the infancy velocity, the adolescent excess over childhood velocity and the velocity at 18.5-19.5 yr. The four pre-registered sub-criteria were evaluated on boys and reported for girls.";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment> "Measured: 3.283333333333333 cm/yr (boys' adolescent peak yearly velocity minus mean childhood velocity, ages 4-10) (n = 12038, 95% bootstrap CI [1.80, 4.42]). Interpretation: Thompson's 'curve of growth for length or stature' and its phases are read as the first derivative (velocity, cm/yr) of median stature against age. NHANES is cross-sectional, so the population-median velocity is a smoothed version of individual velocity: the adolescent spurt is attenuated and widened relative to longitudinal curves, which makes criterion (c) conservative. 'Babyhood' is taken as the first two years, 'early boyhood' as 4-10 years, 'teens' as 10-17, 'full height' as 19-20 years. Birth length is not in NHANES, so infancy velocity is measured from the 0-11 month to the 12-23 month median (midpoints ~0.5 and ~1.5 years).";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "Claim test of thompson1917-ch03-05: supports, confidence 0.8";
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<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets> "Planned datasets: nhanes-demo-2007-2018, nhanes-bmx-2007-2018";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType> "claim-test/0.1.0";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind> "biological";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation> "Refutes if (c) fails in boys, i.e. the adolescent peak does not exceed childhood velocity (bootstrap CI of the excess includes 0 or the smoothed ratio < 1.0), or if (a) fails (infancy velocity not above childhood velocity). Any other combination of failed sub-criteria (e.g. an irregular childhood plateau or incomplete arrest by 19.5 yr) gives 'mixed'.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst> "Birth length is absent from NHANES, so 'infancy' velocity is measured between the 0-11 and 12-23 month medians (about 14 cm/yr), which understates the true first-year velocity.",
"Criterion (b) is met at the threshold: the range of boys' yearly velocities between ages 4 and 10 is exactly 2.0 cm/yr (allowed <= 2.0), driven by a pre-pubertal dip to 4.7 cm/yr at 8.5-9.5 yr. Childhood velocity in boys declines slowly (7.6 -> 4.8 cm/yr smoothed, ages 3-9) rather than being flat; 'nearly steady' holds only relative to infancy and adolescence.",
"Cross-sectional data: population medians attenuate and spread the adolescent spurt; in girls the spurt (peak 10.9 yr) is so attenuated that its excess over childhood velocity (0.9 cm/yr) has a bootstrap CI including 0, so criterion (c) fails for girls even though the pattern is visible. Thompson's sentence is about boys, which is why the verdict is scored on boys.",
"Deviation from pre-registration: the pre-registered 'weighted smoothing spline' derivative on monthly medians was numerically unstable (adjacent-year smoothed velocities swung between 2.7 and 13.8 cm/yr), so the smoothed velocity uses a fixed-bandwidth (SD 0.5 yr) local-linear Gaussian-kernel smoother on the same monthly medians; thresholds were not changed. Results at bandwidths 0.75 and 1.0 yr are reported and give the same sub-criterion outcomes for boys.",
"Modern US population (2007-2018), not the 19th-century European boys Thompson drew on; timing of the spurt differs between populations but the sequence of phases is what was tested.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation> "Pre-registered, evaluated on boys (the subject of Thompson's sentence) with girls reported alongside. Velocities come from pooled NHANES 2007-2018 measured stature (recumbent length < 24 months, standing height >= 24 months) using exam age in months. Model-free yearly velocity v(a) = median(height | age in [a+1,a+2) yr) - median(height | age in [a,a+1) yr), a = 0..18; smoothed velocity = derivative of a weighted smoothing spline through monthly medians. All four must hold for boys: (a) infancy: v(0) >= 2 x mean of v(4..9); (b) childhood steadiness: coefficient of variation of the smoothed velocity over ages 4-10 < 0.15 and max-min of v(4..9) <= 2.0 cm/yr; (c) adolescent quickening: max smoothed velocity in ages 10-17 >= 1.2 x the minimum smoothed velocity in ages 6-10, and the largest v(a) for a in 10..16 exceeds mean v(4..9) by >= 1.0 cm/yr with a 95% bootstrap CI (1000 resamples of individuals) excluding 0; (d) arrest: v(18) (18.5 -> 19.5 yr) < 1.5 cm/yr and < one third of mean v(4..9).";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion> "Refutes if (c) fails in boys, i.e. the adolescent peak does not exceed childhood velocity (bootstrap CI of the excess includes 0 or the smoothed ratio < 1.0), or if (a) fails (infancy velocity not above childhood velocity). Any other combination of failed sub-criteria (e.g. an irregular childhood plateau or incomplete arrest by 19.5 yr) gives 'mixed'.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence> "0.8"^^xsd:double;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence> <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test--dataset-1>,
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test--dataset-2>;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict> "supports";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis> "The population median stature-velocity curve from birth to 20 years shows, in order: a very high velocity in infancy, a lower and nearly steady velocity through childhood, a distinct rise (adolescent spurt) in the early-to-mid teens, and a fall toward zero by the end of the teens.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod> "Downloaded NHANES DEMO and BMX files for the six 2007-2018 cycles, merged on SEQN, kept examined persons under 20 years with a stature measurement (recumbent length below 24 months, standing height from 24 months; n = 23551, boys 12038, girls 11513). For each sex, median stature by completed year of age gave the model-free yearly velocity v(a); a local-linear Gaussian-kernel smoother (SD 0.5 yr; 0.75 and 1.0 yr as sensitivity) on monthly medians gave the smoothed velocity curve on a monthly grid. Bootstrap over individuals (1000 resamples) gave 95% CIs for the infancy velocity, the adolescent excess over childhood velocity and the velocity at 18.5-19.5 yr. The four pre-registered sub-criteria were evaluated on boys and reported for girls.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion> "Pre-registered, evaluated on boys (the subject of Thompson's sentence) with girls reported alongside. Velocities come from pooled NHANES 2007-2018 measured stature (recumbent length < 24 months, standing height >= 24 months) using exam age in months. Model-free yearly velocity v(a) = median(height | age in [a+1,a+2) yr) - median(height | age in [a,a+1) yr), a = 0..18; smoothed velocity = derivative of a weighted smoothing spline through monthly medians. All four must hold for boys: (a) infancy: v(0) >= 2 x mean of v(4..9); (b) childhood steadiness: coefficient of variation of the smoothed velocity over ages 4-10 < 0.15 and max-min of v(4..9) <= 2.0 cm/yr; (c) adolescent quickening: max smoothed velocity in ages 10-17 >= 1.2 x the minimum smoothed velocity in ages 6-10, and the largest v(a) for a in 10..16 exceeds mean v(4..9) by >= 1.0 cm/yr with a 95% bootstrap CI (1000 resamples of individuals) excluding 0; (d) arrest: v(18) (18.5 -> 19.5 yr) < 1.5 cm/yr and < one third of mean v(4..9).";
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dc:license "US Government public domain";
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