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n = 23551, boys 12038, girls 11513). For each sex, median stature by completed year of age gave the model-free yearly velocity v(a); a local-linear Gaussian-kernel smoother (SD 0.5 yr; 0.75 and 1.0 yr as sensitivity) on monthly medians gave the smoothed velocity curve on a monthly grid. Bootstrap over individuals (1000 resamples) gave 95% CIs for the infancy velocity, the adolescent excess over childhood velocity and the velocity at 18.5-19.5 yr. The four pre-registered sub-criteria were evaluated on boys and reported for girls." } ], "@type": [ "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment" ], "http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment": [ { "@value": "Measured: 3.283333333333333 cm/yr (boys' adolescent peak yearly velocity minus mean childhood velocity, ages 4-10) (n = 12038, 95% bootstrap CI [1.80, 4.42]). Interpretation: Thompson's 'curve of growth for length or stature' and its phases are read as the first derivative (velocity, cm/yr) of median stature against age. 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Birth length is not in NHANES, so infancy velocity is measured from the 0-11 month to the 12-23 month median (midpoints ~0.5 and ~1.5 years)." } ], "http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label": [ { "@value": "Claim test of thompson1917-ch03-05: supports, confidence 0.8" } ], "http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso": [ { "@id": "https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/thompson-growth-form/thompson1917-ch03-05/result.json" } ], "http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets": [ { "@value": "Planned datasets: nhanes-demo-2007-2018, nhanes-bmx-2007-2018" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType": [ { "@value": "claim-test/0.1.0" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind": [ { "@value": "biological" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation": [ { "@value": "Refutes if (c) fails in boys, i.e. the adolescent peak does not exceed childhood velocity (bootstrap CI of the excess includes 0 or the smoothed ratio < 1.0), or if (a) fails (infancy velocity not above childhood velocity). Any other combination of failed sub-criteria (e.g. an irregular childhood plateau or incomplete arrest by 19.5 yr) gives 'mixed'." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst": [ { "@value": "Birth length is absent from NHANES, so 'infancy' velocity is measured between the 0-11 and 12-23 month medians (about 14 cm/yr), which understates the true first-year velocity." }, { "@value": "Criterion (b) is met at the threshold: the range of boys' yearly velocities between ages 4 and 10 is exactly 2.0 cm/yr (allowed <= 2.0), driven by a pre-pubertal dip to 4.7 cm/yr at 8.5-9.5 yr. Childhood velocity in boys declines slowly (7.6 -> 4.8 cm/yr smoothed, ages 3-9) rather than being flat; 'nearly steady' holds only relative to infancy and adolescence." }, { "@value": "Cross-sectional data: population medians attenuate and spread the adolescent spurt; in girls the spurt (peak 10.9 yr) is so attenuated that its excess over childhood velocity (0.9 cm/yr) has a bootstrap CI including 0, so criterion (c) fails for girls even though the pattern is visible. Thompson's sentence is about boys, which is why the verdict is scored on boys." }, { "@value": "Deviation from pre-registration: the pre-registered 'weighted smoothing spline' derivative on monthly medians was numerically unstable (adjacent-year smoothed velocities swung between 2.7 and 13.8 cm/yr), so the smoothed velocity uses a fixed-bandwidth (SD 0.5 yr) local-linear Gaussian-kernel smoother on the same monthly medians; thresholds were not changed. Results at bandwidths 0.75 and 1.0 yr are reported and give the same sub-criterion outcomes for boys." }, { "@value": "Modern US population (2007-2018), not the 19th-century European boys Thompson drew on; timing of the spurt differs between populations but the sequence of phases is what was tested." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation": [ { "@value": "Pre-registered, evaluated on boys (the subject of Thompson's sentence) with girls reported alongside. Velocities come from pooled NHANES 2007-2018 measured stature (recumbent length < 24 months, standing height >= 24 months) using exam age in months. Model-free yearly velocity v(a) = median(height | age in [a+1,a+2) yr) - median(height | age in [a,a+1) yr), a = 0..18; smoothed velocity = derivative of a weighted smoothing spline through monthly medians. All four must hold for boys: (a) infancy: v(0) >= 2 x mean of v(4..9); (b) childhood steadiness: coefficient of variation of the smoothed velocity over ages 4-10 < 0.15 and max-min of v(4..9) <= 2.0 cm/yr; (c) adolescent quickening: max smoothed velocity in ages 10-17 >= 1.2 x the minimum smoothed velocity in ages 6-10, and the largest v(a) for a in 10..16 exceeds mean v(4..9) by >= 1.0 cm/yr with a 95% bootstrap CI (1000 resamples of individuals) excluding 0; (d) arrest: v(18) (18.5 -> 19.5 yr) < 1.5 cm/yr and < one third of mean v(4..9)." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion": [ { "@value": "Refutes if (c) fails in boys, i.e. the adolescent peak does not exceed childhood velocity (bootstrap CI of the excess includes 0 or the smoothed ratio < 1.0), or if (a) fails (infancy velocity not above childhood velocity). Any other combination of failed sub-criteria (e.g. an irregular childhood plateau or incomplete arrest by 19.5 yr) gives 'mixed'." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence": [ { "@value": "0.8", "@type": "http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#double" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test--dataset-1" }, { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test--dataset-2" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict": [ { "@value": "supports" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis": [ { "@value": "The population median stature-velocity curve from birth to 20 years shows, in order: a very high velocity in infancy, a lower and nearly steady velocity through childhood, a distinct rise (adolescent spurt) in the early-to-mid teens, and a fall toward zero by the end of the teens." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod": [ { "@value": "Downloaded NHANES DEMO and BMX files for the six 2007-2018 cycles, merged on SEQN, kept examined persons under 20 years with a stature measurement (recumbent length below 24 months, standing height from 24 months; n = 23551, boys 12038, girls 11513). For each sex, median stature by completed year of age gave the model-free yearly velocity v(a); a local-linear Gaussian-kernel smoother (SD 0.5 yr; 0.75 and 1.0 yr as sensitivity) on monthly medians gave the smoothed velocity curve on a monthly grid. Bootstrap over individuals (1000 resamples) gave 95% CIs for the infancy velocity, the adolescent excess over childhood velocity and the velocity at 18.5-19.5 yr. The four pre-registered sub-criteria were evaluated on boys and reported for girls." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion": [ { "@value": "Pre-registered, evaluated on boys (the subject of Thompson's sentence) with girls reported alongside. Velocities come from pooled NHANES 2007-2018 measured stature (recumbent length < 24 months, standing height >= 24 months) using exam age in months. Model-free yearly velocity v(a) = median(height | age in [a+1,a+2) yr) - median(height | age in [a,a+1) yr), a = 0..18; smoothed velocity = derivative of a weighted smoothing spline through monthly medians. 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