https://w3id.org/np/RA17GiZ-XvQ_dZO3L2IH_5z8epD_rcjetT7G6jpwsUFHQ/Head
https://w3id.org/np/RA17GiZ-XvQ_dZO3L2IH_5z8epD_rcjetT7G6jpwsUFHQ
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https://w3id.org/np/RA17GiZ-XvQ_dZO3L2IH_5z8epD_rcjetT7G6jpwsUFHQ/assertion
https://w3id.org/np/RA17GiZ-XvQ_dZO3L2IH_5z8epD_rcjetT7G6jpwsUFHQ
http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasProvenance
https://w3id.org/np/RA17GiZ-XvQ_dZO3L2IH_5z8epD_rcjetT7G6jpwsUFHQ/provenance
https://w3id.org/np/RA17GiZ-XvQ_dZO3L2IH_5z8epD_rcjetT7G6jpwsUFHQ
http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasPublicationInfo
https://w3id.org/np/RA17GiZ-XvQ_dZO3L2IH_5z8epD_rcjetT7G6jpwsUFHQ/pubinfo
https://w3id.org/np/RA17GiZ-XvQ_dZO3L2IH_5z8epD_rcjetT7G6jpwsUFHQ
http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#Nanopublication
https://w3id.org/np/RA17GiZ-XvQ_dZO3L2IH_5z8epD_rcjetT7G6jpwsUFHQ/assertion
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test
http://purl.org/dc/terms/description
Downloaded NHANES DEMO and BMX files for the six 2007-2018 cycles, merged on SEQN, kept examined persons under 20 years with a stature measurement (recumbent length below 24 months, standing height from 24 months; n = 23551, boys 12038, girls 11513). For each sex, median stature by completed year of age gave the model-free yearly velocity v(a); a local-linear Gaussian-kernel smoother (SD 0.5 yr; 0.75 and 1.0 yr as sensitivity) on monthly medians gave the smoothed velocity curve on a monthly grid. Bootstrap over individuals (1000 resamples) gave 95% CIs for the infancy velocity, the adolescent excess over childhood velocity and the velocity at 18.5-19.5 yr. The four pre-registered sub-criteria were evaluated on boys and reported for girls.
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test
http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test
http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment
Measured: 3.283333333333333 cm/yr (boys' adolescent peak yearly velocity minus mean childhood velocity, ages 4-10) (n = 12038, 95% bootstrap CI [1.80, 4.42]). Interpretation: Thompson's 'curve of growth for length or stature' and its phases are read as the first derivative (velocity, cm/yr) of median stature against age. NHANES is cross-sectional, so the population-median velocity is a smoothed version of individual velocity: the adolescent spurt is attenuated and widened relative to longitudinal curves, which makes criterion (c) conservative. 'Babyhood' is taken as the first two years, 'early boyhood' as 4-10 years, 'teens' as 10-17, 'full height' as 19-20 years. Birth length is not in NHANES, so infancy velocity is measured from the 0-11 month to the 12-23 month median (midpoints ~0.5 and ~1.5 years).
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test
http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label
Claim test of thompson1917-ch03-05: supports, confidence 0.8
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test
http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso
https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/thompson-growth-form/thompson1917-ch03-05/result.json
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test
http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets
Planned datasets: nhanes-demo-2007-2018, nhanes-bmx-2007-2018
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType
claim-test/0.1.0
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind
biological
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation
Refutes if (c) fails in boys, i.e. the adolescent peak does not exceed childhood velocity (bootstrap CI of the excess includes 0 or the smoothed ratio < 1.0), or if (a) fails (infancy velocity not above childhood velocity). Any other combination of failed sub-criteria (e.g. an irregular childhood plateau or incomplete arrest by 19.5 yr) gives 'mixed'.
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst
Birth length is absent from NHANES, so 'infancy' velocity is measured between the 0-11 and 12-23 month medians (about 14 cm/yr), which understates the true first-year velocity.
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst
Criterion (b) is met at the threshold: the range of boys' yearly velocities between ages 4 and 10 is exactly 2.0 cm/yr (allowed <= 2.0), driven by a pre-pubertal dip to 4.7 cm/yr at 8.5-9.5 yr. Childhood velocity in boys declines slowly (7.6 -> 4.8 cm/yr smoothed, ages 3-9) rather than being flat; 'nearly steady' holds only relative to infancy and adolescence.
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst
Cross-sectional data: population medians attenuate and spread the adolescent spurt; in girls the spurt (peak 10.9 yr) is so attenuated that its excess over childhood velocity (0.9 cm/yr) has a bootstrap CI including 0, so criterion (c) fails for girls even though the pattern is visible. Thompson's sentence is about boys, which is why the verdict is scored on boys.
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst
Deviation from pre-registration: the pre-registered 'weighted smoothing spline' derivative on monthly medians was numerically unstable (adjacent-year smoothed velocities swung between 2.7 and 13.8 cm/yr), so the smoothed velocity uses a fixed-bandwidth (SD 0.5 yr) local-linear Gaussian-kernel smoother on the same monthly medians; thresholds were not changed. Results at bandwidths 0.75 and 1.0 yr are reported and give the same sub-criterion outcomes for boys.
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst
Modern US population (2007-2018), not the 19th-century European boys Thompson drew on; timing of the spurt differs between populations but the sequence of phases is what was tested.
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation
Pre-registered, evaluated on boys (the subject of Thompson's sentence) with girls reported alongside. Velocities come from pooled NHANES 2007-2018 measured stature (recumbent length < 24 months, standing height >= 24 months) using exam age in months. Model-free yearly velocity v(a) = median(height | age in [a+1,a+2) yr) - median(height | age in [a,a+1) yr), a = 0..18; smoothed velocity = derivative of a weighted smoothing spline through monthly medians. All four must hold for boys: (a) infancy: v(0) >= 2 x mean of v(4..9); (b) childhood steadiness: coefficient of variation of the smoothed velocity over ages 4-10 < 0.15 and max-min of v(4..9) <= 2.0 cm/yr; (c) adolescent quickening: max smoothed velocity in ages 10-17 >= 1.2 x the minimum smoothed velocity in ages 6-10, and the largest v(a) for a in 10..16 exceeds mean v(4..9) by >= 1.0 cm/yr with a 95% bootstrap CI (1000 resamples of individuals) excluding 0; (d) arrest: v(18) (18.5 -> 19.5 yr) < 1.5 cm/yr and < one third of mean v(4..9).
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion
Refutes if (c) fails in boys, i.e. the adolescent peak does not exceed childhood velocity (bootstrap CI of the excess includes 0 or the smoothed ratio < 1.0), or if (a) fails (infancy velocity not above childhood velocity). Any other combination of failed sub-criteria (e.g. an irregular childhood plateau or incomplete arrest by 19.5 yr) gives 'mixed'.
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence
0.8
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test--dataset-1
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test--dataset-2
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict
supports
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis
The population median stature-velocity curve from birth to 20 years shows, in order: a very high velocity in infancy, a lower and nearly steady velocity through childhood, a distinct rise (adolescent spurt) in the early-to-mid teens, and a fall toward zero by the end of the teens.
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod
Downloaded NHANES DEMO and BMX files for the six 2007-2018 cycles, merged on SEQN, kept examined persons under 20 years with a stature measurement (recumbent length below 24 months, standing height from 24 months; n = 23551, boys 12038, girls 11513). For each sex, median stature by completed year of age gave the model-free yearly velocity v(a); a local-linear Gaussian-kernel smoother (SD 0.5 yr; 0.75 and 1.0 yr as sensitivity) on monthly medians gave the smoothed velocity curve on a monthly grid. Bootstrap over individuals (1000 resamples) gave 95% CIs for the infancy velocity, the adolescent excess over childhood velocity and the velocity at 18.5-19.5 yr. The four pre-registered sub-criteria were evaluated on boys and reported for girls.
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion
Pre-registered, evaluated on boys (the subject of Thompson's sentence) with girls reported alongside. Velocities come from pooled NHANES 2007-2018 measured stature (recumbent length < 24 months, standing height >= 24 months) using exam age in months. Model-free yearly velocity v(a) = median(height | age in [a+1,a+2) yr) - median(height | age in [a,a+1) yr), a = 0..18; smoothed velocity = derivative of a weighted smoothing spline through monthly medians. All four must hold for boys: (a) infancy: v(0) >= 2 x mean of v(4..9); (b) childhood steadiness: coefficient of variation of the smoothed velocity over ages 4-10 < 0.15 and max-min of v(4..9) <= 2.0 cm/yr; (c) adolescent quickening: max smoothed velocity in ages 10-17 >= 1.2 x the minimum smoothed velocity in ages 6-10, and the largest v(a) for a in 10..16 exceeds mean v(4..9) by >= 1.0 cm/yr with a 95% bootstrap CI (1000 resamples of individuals) excluding 0; (d) arrest: v(18) (18.5 -> 19.5 yr) < 1.5 cm/yr and < one third of mean v(4..9).
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/preregistered
false
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/claim/thompson1917-ch03-05
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasAssessment
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test--dataset-1
http://purl.org/dc/terms/description
sex, age in months at exam (RIDEXAGM; RIDAGEMN for 2007-2010)
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test--dataset-1
http://purl.org/dc/terms/license
US Government public domain
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test--dataset-1
http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test--dataset-1
http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label
Dataset: NHANES Demographic Variables and Sample Weights (DEMO), cycles 2007-2008 to 2017-2018
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test--dataset-1
http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation
https://wwwn.cdc.gov/Nchs/Data/Nhanes/Public/2007/DataFiles/DEMO_E.xpt
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test--dataset-1
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https://wwwn.cdc.gov/Nchs/Data/Nhanes/Public/2009/DataFiles/DEMO_F.xpt
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https://wwwn.cdc.gov/Nchs/Data/Nhanes/Public/2011/DataFiles/DEMO_G.xpt
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https://wwwn.cdc.gov/Nchs/Data/Nhanes/Public/2013/DataFiles/DEMO_H.xpt
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https://wwwn.cdc.gov/Nchs/Data/Nhanes/Public/2015/DataFiles/DEMO_I.xpt
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https://wwwn.cdc.gov/Nchs/Data/Nhanes/Public/2017/DataFiles/DEMO_J.xpt
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http://purl.org/dc/terms/description
measured standing height (BMXHT), recumbent length (BMXRECUM) and weight (BMXWT)
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test--dataset-2
http://purl.org/dc/terms/license
US Government public domain
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test--dataset-2
http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test--dataset-2
http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label
Dataset: NHANES Body Measures (BMX), cycles 2007-2008 to 2017-2018
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test--dataset-2
http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation
https://wwwn.cdc.gov/Nchs/Data/Nhanes/Public/2007/DataFiles/BMX_E.xpt
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https://wwwn.cdc.gov/Nchs/Data/Nhanes/Public/2009/DataFiles/BMX_F.xpt
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https://wwwn.cdc.gov/Nchs/Data/Nhanes/Public/2011/DataFiles/BMX_G.xpt
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http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation
https://wwwn.cdc.gov/Nchs/Data/Nhanes/Public/2013/DataFiles/BMX_H.xpt
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https://wwwn.cdc.gov/Nchs/Data/Nhanes/Public/2015/DataFiles/BMX_I.xpt
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https://wwwn.cdc.gov/Nchs/Data/Nhanes/Public/2017/DataFiles/BMX_J.xpt
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http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#SoftwareAgent
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1
http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label
delphisci claim tester (claude-fable-5.1; cursor/claim-tests-thompson-efb7)
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1
http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#actedOnBehalfOf
https://orcid.org/0009-0007-4948-9192
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/usesModel
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/model/claude-fable-5-1
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/model/claude-fable-5-1
http://purl.org/dc/terms/identifier
claude-fable-5.1
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/model/claude-fable-5-1
http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/LanguageModel
https://w3id.org/np/RA17GiZ-XvQ_dZO3L2IH_5z8epD_rcjetT7G6jpwsUFHQ/assertion
http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1
https://w3id.org/np/RA17GiZ-XvQ_dZO3L2IH_5z8epD_rcjetT7G6jpwsUFHQ/assertion
http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasDerivedFrom
https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/thompson-growth-form/thompson1917-ch03-05/result.json
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http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasGeneratedBy
https://w3id.org/np/RA17GiZ-XvQ_dZO3L2IH_5z8epD_rcjetT7G6jpwsUFHQ/test
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https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/README.md
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https://w3id.org/np/RA17GiZ-XvQ_dZO3L2IH_5z8epD_rcjetT7G6jpwsUFHQ/test
http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAssociatedWith
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1
https://w3id.org/np/RA17GiZ-XvQ_dZO3L2IH_5z8epD_rcjetT7G6jpwsUFHQ/pubinfo
https://w3id.org/np/RA17GiZ-XvQ_dZO3L2IH_5z8epD_rcjetT7G6jpwsUFHQ
http://purl.org/dc/terms/created
2026-11-08T16:24:31.891Z
https://w3id.org/np/RA17GiZ-XvQ_dZO3L2IH_5z8epD_rcjetT7G6jpwsUFHQ
http://purl.org/dc/terms/creator
https://orcid.org/0009-0007-4948-9192
https://w3id.org/np/RA17GiZ-XvQ_dZO3L2IH_5z8epD_rcjetT7G6jpwsUFHQ
http://purl.org/dc/terms/license
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
https://w3id.org/np/RA17GiZ-XvQ_dZO3L2IH_5z8epD_rcjetT7G6jpwsUFHQ
http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasNanopubType
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment
https://w3id.org/np/RA17GiZ-XvQ_dZO3L2IH_5z8epD_rcjetT7G6jpwsUFHQ
http://purl.org/nanopub/x/introduces
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-05--claim-test
https://w3id.org/np/RA17GiZ-XvQ_dZO3L2IH_5z8epD_rcjetT7G6jpwsUFHQ
http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label
Claim test of thompson1917-ch03-05: supports, confidence 0.8
https://w3id.org/np/RA17GiZ-XvQ_dZO3L2IH_5z8epD_rcjetT7G6jpwsUFHQ
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/domain
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/domain/thompson-growth-form-1917
https://w3id.org/np/RA17GiZ-XvQ_dZO3L2IH_5z8epD_rcjetT7G6jpwsUFHQ/sig
http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasAlgorithm
RSA
https://w3id.org/np/RA17GiZ-XvQ_dZO3L2IH_5z8epD_rcjetT7G6jpwsUFHQ/sig
http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasPublicKey
MIIBIjANBgkqhkiG9w0BAQEFAAOCAQ8AMIIBCgKCAQEAyFHtPB6p0mCjDozxlOY9CmO3nBm7Te3jFbXyLmM+G1tGe47Da0jYIbhkl9Oo1ZjxmCa3LCwlEqK8gj6hEIcL4ahW30JXh9HycfKVk1bugkzMEV15tJdTzAU3sGMFnbNsn43xY2LFLy45tApkRm5byEiM7oRRrooIdwoQKnP4Wzq/bfAoJ9qvW+MGkelyOTd1jbSt+KfmT7xKmDfWzAHddUlWwMX2QJOLxDaffOteTop6ZRgPiNmPJKA/S62Gac9XtSYT3oDkZ6/nr5cxxNLpOyxTf5FPISiCe11xYO/unYjY+mwnOfA8yhJIyx1l0O9I0vpOpn+E5TvyHJV+oSTrvwIDAQAB
https://w3id.org/np/RA17GiZ-XvQ_dZO3L2IH_5z8epD_rcjetT7G6jpwsUFHQ/sig
http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasSignature
reTqSziKmRlTyUJWskVTFtjjLHF17zfAVEwVyw7dF+iaQkfrNbmNu6AWmLdpFyFAvtEKLkKhLL4Gx8yy7rksmgfsynqNUWH9KLw7oFM0gta/7UTRtItfDNQTO3wHjuMzKsCFEfkAce5uqcWOCUgZXzu8qmYikZXMApOpo3tU+jfe80uVsZ2o0KJXOvLyv8Oi2RImzku17J0aCbLfFR1Cnv7lbPbrM6NX+1oVtRbra0wB5dw0vbpuI8k9i/fJLdtLbTOxN1+esJayGrzHLLQjuTO5tNNCBOz8vT3A4xJ8m808tuIEhdX4iscCJBmUcpjENL3mfni5X+6RMp4GLwcFfA==
https://w3id.org/np/RA17GiZ-XvQ_dZO3L2IH_5z8epD_rcjetT7G6jpwsUFHQ/sig
http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasSignatureTarget
https://w3id.org/np/RA17GiZ-XvQ_dZO3L2IH_5z8epD_rcjetT7G6jpwsUFHQ
https://w3id.org/np/RA17GiZ-XvQ_dZO3L2IH_5z8epD_rcjetT7G6jpwsUFHQ/sig
http://purl.org/nanopub/x/signedBy
https://orcid.org/0009-0007-4948-9192