https://w3id.org/np/RAnXdV6NLvYVkytweYLvFpZTAHq3NDaKgs1ebf5z7mjlo
.trig | .trig.txt | .jelly | .jelly.txt | .jsonld | .jsonld.txt | .nq | .nq.txt | .xml | .xml.txt
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sub:assertion {
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/hamilton-rule--claim-test--overnight-hamiltons-moran>
a <https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment>;
dc:description "Enumerate all 64 labelled binary configurations of six haploids in three fixed pairs using fractions.Fraction. For each configuration, compute exact fitnesses and all Moran birth-death transitions, then uniformly average transitions conditional on cooperator count to emit the requested seven-row table. Fit exact ordinary least-squares coefficients to pooled individual records at each count, freeze the count-three coefficients for the additive predictor, and compare both predictor signs with the aggregated expected frequency change.";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment> "Measured: 0 preregistered-pass indicator (n = 5, none; exact rational arithmetic). Interpretation: The method cannot literally define the requested seven-state chain: with three fixed pairs, configurations having the same cooperator count can have different transition probabilities, and the absorbing no-mutation chain has no unique stationary conditional distribution on transient three-cooperator configurations. To make the requested count table computable without adding data or stochastic error, the analysis enumerated all 64 labelled configurations and uniformly averaged configurations conditional on each count; this is an explicit closure convention, not a true lumping of the fixed-pair chain. Under that convention the pre-registered criterion fails because the refit predictor disagrees at counts 2 and 3, but this does not refute the regression identity or the target claim because the averaging mixes distinct population states and their fitness normalizations.";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "Claim test of hamilton-rule (overnight-hamiltons-moran): inconclusive, confidence 0.99";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso> <https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/math-bio-claims/hamilton-rule/overnight-hamiltons-moran/result.json>;
prov:wasAttributedTo <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-gpt-5-6-sol>;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets> "";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType> "claim-test/0.1.0";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind> "computational";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation> "The frozen additive predictor agrees in sign at every state, or the refit regression disagrees with any nonzero exact expected frequency change.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst> "The computation tests a finite closure convention, not whether organisms obey Hamilton's rule and not the full exact-scope problem.",
"The phrase stationary-conditional fitnesses is undefined without mutation or another conditioning construction because the stated chain is absorbing.",
"Uniform conditional averaging was not specified by the approach and is not preserved by the fixed-pair Moran dynamics.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation> "The refit regression matches the sign of exact expected frequency change at every non-absorbing state with nonzero expected change, and the frozen predictor disagrees in sign at least once at an endpoint state.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion> "The frozen additive predictor agrees in sign at every state, or the refit regression disagrees with any nonzero exact expected frequency change.";
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<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence> rdf:nil;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict> "inconclusive";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis> "In the specified exact N = 6 paired Moran model, a regression predictor refit at each non-absorbing state has the same sign as exact expected frequency change, while coefficients frozen from frequency 1/2 have the wrong sign in at least one endpoint state.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod> "Enumerate all 64 labelled binary configurations of six haploids in three fixed pairs using fractions.Fraction. For each configuration, compute exact fitnesses and all Moran birth-death transitions, then uniformly average transitions conditional on cooperator count to emit the requested seven-row table. Fit exact ordinary least-squares coefficients to pooled individual records at each count, freeze the count-three coefficients for the additive predictor, and compare both predictor signs with the aggregated expected frequency change.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion> "The refit regression matches the sign of exact expected frequency change at every non-absorbing state with nonzero expected change, and the frozen predictor disagrees in sign at least once at an endpoint state.";
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<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/hamilton-rule--claim-test--overnight-hamiltons-moran> .
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<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "Claim test of hamilton-rule (overnight-hamiltons-moran): inconclusive, confidence 0.99";
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