https://w3id.org/np/RAnXdV6NLvYVkytweYLvFpZTAHq3NDaKgs1ebf5z7mjlo/Head https://w3id.org/np/RAnXdV6NLvYVkytweYLvFpZTAHq3NDaKgs1ebf5z7mjlo http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion https://w3id.org/np/RAnXdV6NLvYVkytweYLvFpZTAHq3NDaKgs1ebf5z7mjlo/assertion https://w3id.org/np/RAnXdV6NLvYVkytweYLvFpZTAHq3NDaKgs1ebf5z7mjlo http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasProvenance https://w3id.org/np/RAnXdV6NLvYVkytweYLvFpZTAHq3NDaKgs1ebf5z7mjlo/provenance https://w3id.org/np/RAnXdV6NLvYVkytweYLvFpZTAHq3NDaKgs1ebf5z7mjlo http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasPublicationInfo https://w3id.org/np/RAnXdV6NLvYVkytweYLvFpZTAHq3NDaKgs1ebf5z7mjlo/pubinfo https://w3id.org/np/RAnXdV6NLvYVkytweYLvFpZTAHq3NDaKgs1ebf5z7mjlo http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#Nanopublication https://w3id.org/np/RAnXdV6NLvYVkytweYLvFpZTAHq3NDaKgs1ebf5z7mjlo/assertion https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/hamilton-rule--claim-test--overnight-hamiltons-moran http://purl.org/dc/terms/description Enumerate all 64 labelled binary configurations of six haploids in three fixed pairs using fractions.Fraction. For each configuration, compute exact fitnesses and all Moran birth-death transitions, then uniformly average transitions conditional on cooperator count to emit the requested seven-row table. Fit exact ordinary least-squares coefficients to pooled individual records at each count, freeze the count-three coefficients for the additive predictor, and compare both predictor signs with the aggregated expected frequency change. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/hamilton-rule--claim-test--overnight-hamiltons-moran http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/hamilton-rule--claim-test--overnight-hamiltons-moran http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment Measured: 0 preregistered-pass indicator (n = 5, none; exact rational arithmetic). Interpretation: The method cannot literally define the requested seven-state chain: with three fixed pairs, configurations having the same cooperator count can have different transition probabilities, and the absorbing no-mutation chain has no unique stationary conditional distribution on transient three-cooperator configurations. To make the requested count table computable without adding data or stochastic error, the analysis enumerated all 64 labelled configurations and uniformly averaged configurations conditional on each count; this is an explicit closure convention, not a true lumping of the fixed-pair chain. Under that convention the pre-registered criterion fails because the refit predictor disagrees at counts 2 and 3, but this does not refute the regression identity or the target claim because the averaging mixes distinct population states and their fitness normalizations. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/hamilton-rule--claim-test--overnight-hamiltons-moran http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Claim test of hamilton-rule (overnight-hamiltons-moran): inconclusive, confidence 0.99 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/hamilton-rule--claim-test--overnight-hamiltons-moran http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/math-bio-claims/hamilton-rule/overnight-hamiltons-moran/result.json https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/hamilton-rule--claim-test--overnight-hamiltons-moran http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-gpt-5-6-sol https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/hamilton-rule--claim-test--overnight-hamiltons-moran https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/hamilton-rule--claim-test--overnight-hamiltons-moran https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType claim-test/0.1.0 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/hamilton-rule--claim-test--overnight-hamiltons-moran https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind computational https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/hamilton-rule--claim-test--overnight-hamiltons-moran https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation The frozen additive predictor agrees in sign at every state, or the refit regression disagrees with any nonzero exact expected frequency change. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/hamilton-rule--claim-test--overnight-hamiltons-moran https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst The computation tests a finite closure convention, not whether organisms obey Hamilton's rule and not the full exact-scope problem. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/hamilton-rule--claim-test--overnight-hamiltons-moran https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst The phrase stationary-conditional fitnesses is undefined without mutation or another conditioning construction because the stated chain is absorbing. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/hamilton-rule--claim-test--overnight-hamiltons-moran https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Uniform conditional averaging was not specified by the approach and is not preserved by the fixed-pair Moran dynamics. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/hamilton-rule--claim-test--overnight-hamiltons-moran https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation The refit regression matches the sign of exact expected frequency change at every non-absorbing state with nonzero expected change, and the frozen predictor disagrees in sign at least once at an endpoint state. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/hamilton-rule--claim-test--overnight-hamiltons-moran https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion The frozen additive predictor agrees in sign at every state, or the refit regression disagrees with any nonzero exact expected frequency change. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/hamilton-rule--claim-test--overnight-hamiltons-moran https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence 0.99 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/hamilton-rule--claim-test--overnight-hamiltons-moran https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#nil https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/hamilton-rule--claim-test--overnight-hamiltons-moran https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict inconclusive https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/hamilton-rule--claim-test--overnight-hamiltons-moran https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis In the specified exact N = 6 paired Moran model, a regression predictor refit at each non-absorbing state has the same sign as exact expected frequency change, while coefficients frozen from frequency 1/2 have the wrong sign in at least one endpoint state. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/hamilton-rule--claim-test--overnight-hamiltons-moran https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod Enumerate all 64 labelled binary configurations of six haploids in three fixed pairs using fractions.Fraction. 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