https://w3id.org/np/RADaw0AFltfW3DK06YvJ0aDSaQYrduxzaKo3Qv58coDGc
.trig | .trig.txt | .jelly | .jelly.txt | .jsonld | .jsonld.txt | .nq | .nq.txt | .xml | .xml.txt
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@prefix dc: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
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sub:Head {
this: a np:Nanopublication;
np:hasAssertion sub:assertion;
np:hasProvenance sub:provenance;
np:hasPublicationInfo sub:pubinfo .
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sub:assertion {
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha08-27--claim-test--pr-169>
a <https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment>;
dc:description "Resolved each pre-registered scientific name in the GBIF species match API and summed human-observation counts by month for 1990-2025. Greece was the region. The five-country fallback was used only if Greece left fewer than six species scorable. Sub-Saharan winter counts use the pre-registered polygon. Classes and the verdict follow decision_rule.";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment> "Measured: 2 named species classified as long-distance migrants (n = 9). Interpretation: The names follow Thompson's translation of the Greek list: barn swallow, black kite, white stork, blackbird for owzel, European turtle-dove, Eurasian skylark, song thrush, common starling, and little owl. The kite is Milvus migrans, the common kite of Greece. Hiding in holes without feathers is not observable in occurrence counts; the test asks only whether the birds spend the winter in a warmer country rather than in the region where they breed. A high African winter count is positive evidence of migration. A low Greek winter count alone is not, because a hidden bird would also be missed.";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "Claim test of aristotle-ha08-27 (pr-169): mixed, confidence 0.6";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso> <https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/aristotle-biology/aristotle-ha08-27/pr-169/result.json>;
prov:wasAttributedTo <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7>;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets> "A public, queryable occurrence index with species, country, month and year, restricted to human observations from 1990 through 2025 with coordinates and no geospatial issue. Counts are not a tracking dataset and cannot show that an undetected bird was torpid in a hole.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType> "claim-test/0.1.0";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind> "biological";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation> "At least five of the named species have large winter counts in sub-Saharan Africa and almost no winter counts in the breeding region.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst> "A bird hidden in a hole would not be recorded, so a low winter count in Greece does not by itself prove migration. The migrant class also requires a large African winter count.",
"Featherless torpor in holes is not measured.", "GBIF human observations are denser in Europe than in Africa. A large African winter count is therefore conservative evidence of migration; a small one is not evidence of absence.",
"The little owl and the skylark can be resident. The claim lists them with the migrants as birds that hide, so they are in the same count.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation> "Most of the named species are at least a quarter as often recorded in the regional winter as in the regional summer, and are not numerous in sub-Saharan Africa in winter.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion> "Pre-registered. The claim is refuted if at least 5 of the 9 species are migrants by the rule above. If fewer than 6 species are scorable in Greece, the same rules are applied to the pre-registered fallback countries and that use is recorded as a deviation; it does not change the thresholds. If the fallback is also below 6 scorable species, the verdict is inconclusive with reason underpowered. If both migrant and local patterns are present and neither the pass nor the refute count is met, the verdict is mixed. Occurrence counts cannot show featherless torpor in holes; that anecdote is not part of the verdict.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence> "0.6"^^xsd:double;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence> <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha08-27--claim-test--pr-169--dataset-1>;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict> "mixed";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis> "If the named birds hide where they are in winter instead of migrating to a warmer country, they are recorded in winter in the breeding region and are not recorded in large numbers in sub-Saharan Africa in winter.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod> "Resolve each scientific name to a taxon key. Sum month-specific occurrence counts for summer and winter in the region and for winter inside the pre-registered African polygon. Classify each scorable species as migrant, local or neither using the fractions in decision_rule, then apply the count thresholds. Greece first; the five-country fallback only if Greece leaves fewer than 6 species scorable.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion> "Pre-registered. Using GBIF occurrence counts as defined in decision_rule, at least 6 of the 9 named species are scorable (summer count in the region at least 30). The claim is supported if at least 6 species are local in winter and at most 1 species is a long-distance migrant. A species is local if its winter count in the region is at least 25 percent of its summer count and its sub-Saharan winter count is below 25 percent of its regional winter count. A species is a migrant if its sub-Saharan winter count is at least 100 and at least as large as its regional summer count, and its regional winter count is below 10 percent of its regional summer count.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/preregistered> "false"^^xsd:boolean .
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/claim/aristotle-ha08-27> <https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasAssessment>
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha08-27--claim-test--pr-169> .
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha08-27--claim-test--pr-169--dataset-1>
a <https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem>;
dc:description "summer and winter occurrence counts for the nine named birds";
dc:license "Counts from the GBIF occurrence index. Individual records keep the licences of their publishers; no occurrence records were copied into the repository.";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "Dataset: GBIF occurrence index, count queries only";
prov:atLocation <https://api.gbif.org/v1/occurrence/search>;
prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://www.gbif.org/>;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasChecksum> "sha256:76bd38a232142a92114cfb26e9d28c569b2efe75edb08e450f3a5583ba0a1568" .
}
sub:provenance {
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<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "delphisci claim tester (grok-4.7; bc-166d9fe0-2255-4b46-9201-716b347078dc)";
prov:actedOnBehalfOf <https://orcid.org/0009-0007-4948-9192>;
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dc:identifier "grok-4.7" .
sub:assertion prov:wasAttributedTo <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7>;
prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/aristotle-biology/aristotle-ha08-27/pr-169/result.json>;
prov:wasGeneratedBy sub:test .
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sub:test a prov:Activity;
prov:qualifiedAssociation sub:plan;
prov:wasAssociatedWith <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7> .
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sub:pubinfo {
this: dc:created "2026-11-08T16:24:31.781Z"^^xsd:dateTime;
dc:creator <https://orcid.org/0009-0007-4948-9192>;
dc:license <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/>;
npx:hasNanopubType <https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment>;
npx:introduces <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha08-27--claim-test--pr-169>;
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "Claim test of aristotle-ha08-27 (pr-169): mixed, confidence 0.6";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/domain> <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/domain/aristotle-biology> .
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