https://w3id.org/np/RADaw0AFltfW3DK06YvJ0aDSaQYrduxzaKo3Qv58coDGc/Head https://w3id.org/np/RADaw0AFltfW3DK06YvJ0aDSaQYrduxzaKo3Qv58coDGc http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion https://w3id.org/np/RADaw0AFltfW3DK06YvJ0aDSaQYrduxzaKo3Qv58coDGc/assertion https://w3id.org/np/RADaw0AFltfW3DK06YvJ0aDSaQYrduxzaKo3Qv58coDGc http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasProvenance https://w3id.org/np/RADaw0AFltfW3DK06YvJ0aDSaQYrduxzaKo3Qv58coDGc/provenance https://w3id.org/np/RADaw0AFltfW3DK06YvJ0aDSaQYrduxzaKo3Qv58coDGc http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasPublicationInfo https://w3id.org/np/RADaw0AFltfW3DK06YvJ0aDSaQYrduxzaKo3Qv58coDGc/pubinfo https://w3id.org/np/RADaw0AFltfW3DK06YvJ0aDSaQYrduxzaKo3Qv58coDGc http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#Nanopublication https://w3id.org/np/RADaw0AFltfW3DK06YvJ0aDSaQYrduxzaKo3Qv58coDGc/assertion https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha08-27--claim-test--pr-169 http://purl.org/dc/terms/description Resolved each pre-registered scientific name in the GBIF species match API and summed human-observation counts by month for 1990-2025. Greece was the region. The five-country fallback was used only if Greece left fewer than six species scorable. Sub-Saharan winter counts use the pre-registered polygon. Classes and the verdict follow decision_rule. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha08-27--claim-test--pr-169 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha08-27--claim-test--pr-169 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment Measured: 2 named species classified as long-distance migrants (n = 9). Interpretation: The names follow Thompson's translation of the Greek list: barn swallow, black kite, white stork, blackbird for owzel, European turtle-dove, Eurasian skylark, song thrush, common starling, and little owl. The kite is Milvus migrans, the common kite of Greece. Hiding in holes without feathers is not observable in occurrence counts; the test asks only whether the birds spend the winter in a warmer country rather than in the region where they breed. A high African winter count is positive evidence of migration. A low Greek winter count alone is not, because a hidden bird would also be missed. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha08-27--claim-test--pr-169 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Claim test of aristotle-ha08-27 (pr-169): mixed, confidence 0.6 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha08-27--claim-test--pr-169 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/aristotle-biology/aristotle-ha08-27/pr-169/result.json https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha08-27--claim-test--pr-169 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha08-27--claim-test--pr-169 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets A public, queryable occurrence index with species, country, month and year, restricted to human observations from 1990 through 2025 with coordinates and no geospatial issue. Counts are not a tracking dataset and cannot show that an undetected bird was torpid in a hole. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha08-27--claim-test--pr-169 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType claim-test/0.1.0 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha08-27--claim-test--pr-169 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind biological https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha08-27--claim-test--pr-169 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation At least five of the named species have large winter counts in sub-Saharan Africa and almost no winter counts in the breeding region. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha08-27--claim-test--pr-169 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst A bird hidden in a hole would not be recorded, so a low winter count in Greece does not by itself prove migration. The migrant class also requires a large African winter count. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha08-27--claim-test--pr-169 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Featherless torpor in holes is not measured. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha08-27--claim-test--pr-169 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst GBIF human observations are denser in Europe than in Africa. A large African winter count is therefore conservative evidence of migration; a small one is not evidence of absence. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha08-27--claim-test--pr-169 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst The little owl and the skylark can be resident. The claim lists them with the migrants as birds that hide, so they are in the same count. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha08-27--claim-test--pr-169 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation Most of the named species are at least a quarter as often recorded in the regional winter as in the regional summer, and are not numerous in sub-Saharan Africa in winter. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha08-27--claim-test--pr-169 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion Pre-registered. The claim is refuted if at least 5 of the 9 species are migrants by the rule above. If fewer than 6 species are scorable in Greece, the same rules are applied to the pre-registered fallback countries and that use is recorded as a deviation; it does not change the thresholds. If the fallback is also below 6 scorable species, the verdict is inconclusive with reason underpowered. If both migrant and local patterns are present and neither the pass nor the refute count is met, the verdict is mixed. Occurrence counts cannot show featherless torpor in holes; that anecdote is not part of the verdict. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha08-27--claim-test--pr-169 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence 0.6 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha08-27--claim-test--pr-169 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha08-27--claim-test--pr-169--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha08-27--claim-test--pr-169 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict mixed https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha08-27--claim-test--pr-169 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis If the named birds hide where they are in winter instead of migrating to a warmer country, they are recorded in winter in the breeding region and are not recorded in large numbers in sub-Saharan Africa in winter. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha08-27--claim-test--pr-169 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod Resolve each scientific name to a taxon key. Sum month-specific occurrence counts for summer and winter in the region and for winter inside the pre-registered African polygon. Classify each scorable species as migrant, local or neither using the fractions in decision_rule, then apply the count thresholds. Greece first; the five-country fallback only if Greece leaves fewer than 6 species scorable. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha08-27--claim-test--pr-169 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion Pre-registered. Using GBIF occurrence counts as defined in decision_rule, at least 6 of the 9 named species are scorable (summer count in the region at least 30). The claim is supported if at least 6 species are local in winter and at most 1 species is a long-distance migrant. A species is local if its winter count in the region is at least 25 percent of its summer count and its sub-Saharan winter count is below 25 percent of its regional winter count. 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