https://w3id.org/np/RA3l61UkyvvavsIukDmN-9Nq1EzhyOk-03kRkiqBqZLao
.trig | .trig.txt | .jelly | .jelly.txt | .jsonld | .jsonld.txt | .nq | .nq.txt | .xml | .xml.txt
@prefix this: <https://w3id.org/np/RA3l61UkyvvavsIukDmN-9Nq1EzhyOk-03kRkiqBqZLao> .
@prefix sub: <https://w3id.org/np/RA3l61UkyvvavsIukDmN-9Nq1EzhyOk-03kRkiqBqZLao/> .
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sub:Head {
this: a np:Nanopublication;
np:hasAssertion sub:assertion;
np:hasProvenance sub:provenance;
np:hasPublicationInfo sub:pubinfo .
}
sub:assertion {
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition--claim-test>
a <https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment>;
dc:description "fetch.py requested the file(s) by their Dryad file-stream URLs with a plain HTTP client and received HTTP 403 with a proof-of-work challenge page (the Dryad API download endpoint requires an account token). Per BEST_PRACTICES.md, sites that block automated requests are not circumvented, so no data were inspected and no analysis was run. fetch.py accepts a manually downloaded copy placed in data/ and records its checksum; the pre-registered analysis can then be run without changing the criteria.";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment> "Measured: null not measured (n = 0). Interpretation: The ESS of the symmetric war of attrition with cost linear in time is an exponential persistence time with mean equal to the resource value V; observed contest duration is the minimum of two such draws and so is exponential with mean V/2. Resource value is not varied in this dataset, so only the distributional prediction is tested, not the scaling of the mean with V. Durations are presumably recorded from the start of display with some time resolution, which can produce a floor; this is examined as a caveat if the data are obtained.";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "Claim test of maynardsmith-war-of-attrition: inconclusive, confidence 1";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso> <https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/math-bio-claims/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition/result.json>;
prov:wasAttributedTo <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1>;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets> "Planned datasets: spider-contest-display-durations-dryad-bg79cnpjg";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType> "claim-test/0.1.0";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind> "none";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation> "Pre-registered. REFUTES if the bootstrap-calibrated test gives p < 0.01 AND the coefficient of variation lies outside [0.5, 1.5]. MIXED otherwise. INCONCLUSIVE (underpowered) if n < 20. INCONCLUSIVE (data-unavailable) if Dryad keeps blocking automated download (as of 2026-10-31 it serves a JavaScript proof-of-work challenge to scripted requests, which this project does not circumvent) and no manually downloaded copy with a recorded checksum is supplied.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst> "Dryad's metadata API (which does not require a token) confirmed the file names and sizes; nothing about the data values was seen.",
"The dataset exists and is public (CC0) but could not be fetched by script; a person with a browser can download it in seconds, after which this test is runnable as pre-registered.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation> "Pre-registered. Data: 'Vibrating aggression: spider males perform an unusual assessment strategy during contest displays', Dryad doi:10.5061/dryad.bg79cnpjg, file fight.csv (male-male contests of the orb-web spider Trichonephila clavipes), restricted to contests recorded as not escalating to physical contact, using the contest duration column as given. SUPPORTS if n >= 20 AND a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test of exponentiality with the rate estimated from the data (p-value calibrated by 10,000 parametric bootstrap replicates, i.e. a Lilliefors-type test) gives p > 0.05 AND the coefficient of variation of the durations lies in [0.7, 1.3].";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion> "Pre-registered. REFUTES if the bootstrap-calibrated test gives p < 0.01 AND the coefficient of variation lies outside [0.5, 1.5]. MIXED otherwise. INCONCLUSIVE (underpowered) if n < 20. INCONCLUSIVE (data-unavailable) if Dryad keeps blocking automated download (as of 2026-10-31 it serves a JavaScript proof-of-work challenge to scripted requests, which this project does not circumvent) and no manually downloaded copy with a recorded checksum is supplied.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence> "1"^^xsd:double;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence> <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition--claim-test--dataset-1>;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict> "inconclusive";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis> "If display contests are wars of attrition in which each contestant draws a persistence time from an exponential distribution, then the durations of contests that end without escalation (the shorter of two independent exponential draws, which is itself exponential) should follow an exponential distribution.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod> "fetch.py requested the file(s) by their Dryad file-stream URLs with a plain HTTP client and received HTTP 403 with a proof-of-work challenge page (the Dryad API download endpoint requires an account token). Per BEST_PRACTICES.md, sites that block automated requests are not circumvented, so no data were inspected and no analysis was run. fetch.py accepts a manually downloaded copy placed in data/ and records its checksum; the pre-registered analysis can then be run without changing the criteria.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion> "Pre-registered. Data: 'Vibrating aggression: spider males perform an unusual assessment strategy during contest displays', Dryad doi:10.5061/dryad.bg79cnpjg, file fight.csv (male-male contests of the orb-web spider Trichonephila clavipes), restricted to contests recorded as not escalating to physical contact, using the contest duration column as given. SUPPORTS if n >= 20 AND a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test of exponentiality with the rate estimated from the data (p-value calibrated by 10,000 parametric bootstrap replicates, i.e. a Lilliefors-type test) gives p > 0.05 AND the coefficient of variation of the durations lies in [0.7, 1.3].";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/preregistered> "false"^^xsd:boolean .
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/claim/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition> <https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasAssessment>
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition--claim-test> .
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition--claim-test--dataset-1>
a <https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem>;
dc:description "not obtained: Dryad answered the scripted download with HTTP 403 and an Anubis JavaScript proof-of-work challenge page";
dc:license "CC0 (Dryad)";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "Dataset: 'Vibrating aggression: spider males perform an unusual assessment strategy during contest displays', Dryad data (fight.csv 2.7 KB, README.md 6.3 KB)";
prov:atLocation <https://datadryad.org/stash/downloads/file_stream/3037112>, <https://datadryad.org/stash/downloads/file_stream/3037114>;
prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://datadryad.org/dataset/doi:10.5061/dryad.bg79cnpjg> .
}
sub:provenance {
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prov:SoftwareAgent;
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "delphisci claim tester (claude-fable-5-1; scienceclaw-c4 (claims thread, ScienceClaw hack))";
prov:actedOnBehalfOf <https://orcid.org/0009-0007-4948-9192>;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/usesModel> <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/model/claude-fable-5-1> .
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/model/claude-fable-5-1> a <https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/LanguageModel>;
dc:identifier "claude-fable-5-1" .
sub:assertion prov:wasAttributedTo <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1>;
prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/math-bio-claims/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition/result.json>;
prov:wasGeneratedBy sub:test .
sub:plan prov:hadPlan <https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/README.md> .
sub:test a prov:Activity;
prov:qualifiedAssociation sub:plan;
prov:wasAssociatedWith <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1> .
}
sub:pubinfo {
this: dc:created "2026-11-08T16:24:31.886Z"^^xsd:dateTime;
dc:creator <https://orcid.org/0009-0007-4948-9192>;
dc:license <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/>;
npx:hasNanopubType <https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment>;
npx:introduces <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition--claim-test>;
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "Claim test of maynardsmith-war-of-attrition: inconclusive, confidence 1";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/domain> <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/domain/math-bio-claims> .
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