https://w3id.org/np/RA3l61UkyvvavsIukDmN-9Nq1EzhyOk-03kRkiqBqZLao/Head https://w3id.org/np/RA3l61UkyvvavsIukDmN-9Nq1EzhyOk-03kRkiqBqZLao http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion https://w3id.org/np/RA3l61UkyvvavsIukDmN-9Nq1EzhyOk-03kRkiqBqZLao/assertion https://w3id.org/np/RA3l61UkyvvavsIukDmN-9Nq1EzhyOk-03kRkiqBqZLao http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasProvenance https://w3id.org/np/RA3l61UkyvvavsIukDmN-9Nq1EzhyOk-03kRkiqBqZLao/provenance https://w3id.org/np/RA3l61UkyvvavsIukDmN-9Nq1EzhyOk-03kRkiqBqZLao http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasPublicationInfo https://w3id.org/np/RA3l61UkyvvavsIukDmN-9Nq1EzhyOk-03kRkiqBqZLao/pubinfo https://w3id.org/np/RA3l61UkyvvavsIukDmN-9Nq1EzhyOk-03kRkiqBqZLao http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#Nanopublication https://w3id.org/np/RA3l61UkyvvavsIukDmN-9Nq1EzhyOk-03kRkiqBqZLao/assertion https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition--claim-test http://purl.org/dc/terms/description fetch.py requested the file(s) by their Dryad file-stream URLs with a plain HTTP client and received HTTP 403 with a proof-of-work challenge page (the Dryad API download endpoint requires an account token). Per BEST_PRACTICES.md, sites that block automated requests are not circumvented, so no data were inspected and no analysis was run. fetch.py accepts a manually downloaded copy placed in data/ and records its checksum; the pre-registered analysis can then be run without changing the criteria. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition--claim-test http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment Measured: null not measured (n = 0). Interpretation: The ESS of the symmetric war of attrition with cost linear in time is an exponential persistence time with mean equal to the resource value V; observed contest duration is the minimum of two such draws and so is exponential with mean V/2. Resource value is not varied in this dataset, so only the distributional prediction is tested, not the scaling of the mean with V. Durations are presumably recorded from the start of display with some time resolution, which can produce a floor; this is examined as a caveat if the data are obtained. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Claim test of maynardsmith-war-of-attrition: inconclusive, confidence 1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/math-bio-claims/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition/result.json https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition--claim-test http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets Planned datasets: spider-contest-display-durations-dryad-bg79cnpjg https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType claim-test/0.1.0 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind none https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation Pre-registered. REFUTES if the bootstrap-calibrated test gives p < 0.01 AND the coefficient of variation lies outside [0.5, 1.5]. MIXED otherwise. INCONCLUSIVE (underpowered) if n < 20. INCONCLUSIVE (data-unavailable) if Dryad keeps blocking automated download (as of 2026-10-31 it serves a JavaScript proof-of-work challenge to scripted requests, which this project does not circumvent) and no manually downloaded copy with a recorded checksum is supplied. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Dryad's metadata API (which does not require a token) confirmed the file names and sizes; nothing about the data values was seen. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst The dataset exists and is public (CC0) but could not be fetched by script; a person with a browser can download it in seconds, after which this test is runnable as pre-registered. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation Pre-registered. Data: 'Vibrating aggression: spider males perform an unusual assessment strategy during contest displays', Dryad doi:10.5061/dryad.bg79cnpjg, file fight.csv (male-male contests of the orb-web spider Trichonephila clavipes), restricted to contests recorded as not escalating to physical contact, using the contest duration column as given. SUPPORTS if n >= 20 AND a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test of exponentiality with the rate estimated from the data (p-value calibrated by 10,000 parametric bootstrap replicates, i.e. a Lilliefors-type test) gives p > 0.05 AND the coefficient of variation of the durations lies in [0.7, 1.3]. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion Pre-registered. REFUTES if the bootstrap-calibrated test gives p < 0.01 AND the coefficient of variation lies outside [0.5, 1.5]. MIXED otherwise. INCONCLUSIVE (underpowered) if n < 20. INCONCLUSIVE (data-unavailable) if Dryad keeps blocking automated download (as of 2026-10-31 it serves a JavaScript proof-of-work challenge to scripted requests, which this project does not circumvent) and no manually downloaded copy with a recorded checksum is supplied. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence 1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition--claim-test--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict inconclusive https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis If display contests are wars of attrition in which each contestant draws a persistence time from an exponential distribution, then the durations of contests that end without escalation (the shorter of two independent exponential draws, which is itself exponential) should follow an exponential distribution. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod fetch.py requested the file(s) by their Dryad file-stream URLs with a plain HTTP client and received HTTP 403 with a proof-of-work challenge page (the Dryad API download endpoint requires an account token). Per BEST_PRACTICES.md, sites that block automated requests are not circumvented, so no data were inspected and no analysis was run. fetch.py accepts a manually downloaded copy placed in data/ and records its checksum; the pre-registered analysis can then be run without changing the criteria. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/maynardsmith-war-of-attrition--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion Pre-registered. Data: 'Vibrating aggression: spider males perform an unusual assessment strategy during contest displays', Dryad doi:10.5061/dryad.bg79cnpjg, file fight.csv (male-male contests of the orb-web spider Trichonephila clavipes), restricted to contests recorded as not escalating to physical contact, using the contest duration column as given. 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