https://w3id.org/np/RAz-LkaUq8kGK_iVqmXb-72nCVHxKJgR8DjS8Cj6aqlgs/Head https://w3id.org/np/RAz-LkaUq8kGK_iVqmXb-72nCVHxKJgR8DjS8Cj6aqlgs http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion https://w3id.org/np/RAz-LkaUq8kGK_iVqmXb-72nCVHxKJgR8DjS8Cj6aqlgs/assertion https://w3id.org/np/RAz-LkaUq8kGK_iVqmXb-72nCVHxKJgR8DjS8Cj6aqlgs http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasProvenance https://w3id.org/np/RAz-LkaUq8kGK_iVqmXb-72nCVHxKJgR8DjS8Cj6aqlgs/provenance https://w3id.org/np/RAz-LkaUq8kGK_iVqmXb-72nCVHxKJgR8DjS8Cj6aqlgs http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasPublicationInfo https://w3id.org/np/RAz-LkaUq8kGK_iVqmXb-72nCVHxKJgR8DjS8Cj6aqlgs/pubinfo https://w3id.org/np/RAz-LkaUq8kGK_iVqmXb-72nCVHxKJgR8DjS8Cj6aqlgs http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#Nanopublication https://w3id.org/np/RAz-LkaUq8kGK_iVqmXb-72nCVHxKJgR8DjS8Cj6aqlgs/assertion https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test http://purl.org/dc/terms/description analysis.py reads the WCVP distribution table for accepted species, defines Europe as TDWG level-1 region 1, La Plata as level-3 units AGE (Argentina Northeast) + URU (Uruguay), and Australia as level-2 region 50. A_LP is the number of species native in Europe, not native in La Plata, and flagged introduced in La Plata; B_LP is the number native in La Plata, not native in Europe, and flagged introduced in any European unit; A_AU and B_AU likewise for Australia. The pre-registered rule compares A/B ratios with thresholds 5 (supports) and 2 (refutes). Two sensitivity analyses are reported but do not enter the verdict: a wider La Plata (AGE, AGW, AGS, URU, PAR) and a restriction of each source pool to species whose entire native range lies in one TDWG continent (Europe, South America, Australasia). https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment Measured: 1.364 ratio of European plant species naturalised in La Plata to La Plata species naturalised in Europe (WCVP) (n = 806, exact counts from WCVP status flags; depends on completeness of introduced-status coding). Interpretation: Darwin's 'productions' is tested for vascular plants, the group for which native and introduced status is coded worldwide at consistent regional units; his La Plata examples (cardoon, thistles, fennel) are plants. 'Naturalised' is mapped to WCVP's 'introduced' flag, which records established alien occurrences in a unit (casual records and cultivated plants are excluded by WCVP's criteria). 'Europe' is TDWG level-1 region 1 (Iceland to the Urals, including the Mediterranean islands and European Russia; Macaronesia is in Africa in TDWG). 'La Plata' is the Rio de la Plata basin lowlands, mapped to Argentina Northeast (which includes Buenos Aires and Entre Rios provinces) plus Uruguay. Species native to both source and recipient regions are excluded. Counts are reported raw (Darwin's 'very many' versus 'extremely few') and as a fraction of each source flora. The claim is about the pattern, not its cause; propagule pressure is discussed in caveats only. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Claim test of darwin1859-ch11-16: refutes, confidence 0.7 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/darwin-origin/darwin1859-ch11-16/result.json https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets Planned datasets: wcvp-world-checklist-vascular-plants https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType claim-test/0.1.0 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind biological https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation Refutes if A_LP < 2 * B_LP or A_AU < 2 * B_AU (no strong asymmetry, or reversed). Otherwise mixed. The secondary clause 'in a lesser degree in Australia' is evaluated as A_LP > A_AU and reported, but is not part of the verdict rule because absolute counts now depend on two centuries of differing colonisation history. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Conversely, the South-American-to-Europe list includes pantropical or widespread weeds (Amaranthus, Alternanthera, Bidens pilosa) that are native in La Plata but may have reached Europe from elsewhere. The continent-confined sensitivity removes these and gives ratios of 0.09 (La Plata) and 0.43 (Australia), but that restriction is biased against Europe, whose natives are mostly shared with Asia or North Africa (only 15 Europe-confined species are naturalised in La Plata), so it is a lower bound on the asymmetry, not a preferred estimate. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Darwin's observation dates from the 1830s; naturalisation counts now reflect two centuries of horticultural, agricultural and wool-trade propagule pressure in both directions, which Darwin could not have anticipated. The test addresses the present-day pattern, not whether Darwin's 1859 reading of it was reasonable. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Only vascular plants are tested; Darwin's 'productions' could include animals, for which no comparably coded global native/introduced checklist exists at regional resolution. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Per source species the pattern is reversed for La Plata: 58 of every 1000 La Plata natives are naturalised in Europe, versus 17 of every 1000 European natives naturalised in La Plata, because the European native pool (27,000 species) is far larger than that of AGE+URU (5,832). https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Primary result: A_LP = 465 European species naturalised in La Plata versus B_LP = 341 La Plata species naturalised in Europe (ratio 1.36, below the refute threshold of 2); A_AU = 837 versus B_AU = 274 (ratio 3.06, between the thresholds). Darwin's direction of asymmetry holds for both regions, but its magnitude ('very many' versus 'extremely few') does not: hundreds of South American and Australian species are coded as introduced in Europe. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst The secondary clause 'in a lesser degree in Australia' is not borne out: more European species are coded introduced in Australia (837) than in AGE+URU (465), in part because Australia is a continent-sized recipient with seven level-3 units and an intensive alien-flora census, whereas La Plata here is two units. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst WCVP's 'introduced' flag mixes long-established invaders with regionally established aliens whose European foothold may be small; many Australian species recorded as introduced in Europe (Atriplex, Austrostipa, Calotis, Acacia) were historically wool or garden aliens, and some may now be casual or extinct. WCVP intends to exclude casuals, but its coding leans on regional floras of varying strictness, so B counts may be inflated relative to Darwin's 'naturalised'. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation Using World Checklist of Vascular Plants native and introduced distribution records by TDWG level-3 unit: A_LP = number of species native in Europe (TDWG level-1 region 1) and not native in La Plata that are recorded as introduced in La Plata (units AGE Argentina Northeast and URU Uruguay); B_LP = number of species native in La Plata and not native in Europe that are recorded as introduced in any European unit; likewise A_AU and B_AU for Australia (TDWG level-2 region 50: WAU, NTA, SOA, QLD, NSW, VIC, TAS). Supports if A_LP >= 5 * B_LP and A_AU >= 5 * B_AU. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion Refutes if A_LP < 2 * B_LP or A_AU < 2 * B_AU (no strong asymmetry, or reversed). Otherwise mixed. The secondary clause 'in a lesser degree in Australia' is evaluated as A_LP > A_AU and reported, but is not part of the verdict rule because absolute counts now depend on two centuries of differing colonisation history. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence 0.7 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict refutes https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis If Darwin is right, many more European species have become naturalised in La Plata (and, to a lesser degree, in Australia) than species from those southern regions have become naturalised anywhere in Europe: the Europe-to-south naturalisation count should exceed the south-to-Europe count several-fold for each region. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod analysis.py reads the WCVP distribution table for accepted species, defines Europe as TDWG level-1 region 1, La Plata as level-3 units AGE (Argentina Northeast) + URU (Uruguay), and Australia as level-2 region 50. A_LP is the number of species native in Europe, not native in La Plata, and flagged introduced in La Plata; B_LP is the number native in La Plata, not native in Europe, and flagged introduced in any European unit; A_AU and B_AU likewise for Australia. The pre-registered rule compares A/B ratios with thresholds 5 (supports) and 2 (refutes). Two sensitivity analyses are reported but do not enter the verdict: a wider La Plata (AGE, AGW, AGS, URU, PAR) and a restriction of each source pool to species whose entire native range lies in one TDWG continent (Europe, South America, Australasia). https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion Using World Checklist of Vascular Plants native and introduced distribution records by TDWG level-3 unit: A_LP = number of species native in Europe (TDWG level-1 region 1) and not native in La Plata that are recorded as introduced in La Plata (units AGE Argentina Northeast and URU Uruguay); B_LP = number of species native in La Plata and not native in Europe that are recorded as introduced in any European unit; likewise A_AU and B_AU for Australia (TDWG level-2 region 50: WAU, NTA, SOA, QLD, NSW, VIC, TAS). Supports if A_LP >= 5 * B_LP and A_AU >= 5 * B_AU. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/preregistered false https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/claim/darwin1859-ch11-16 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasAssessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test--dataset-1 http://purl.org/dc/terms/description accepted species with native and introduced status per TDWG level-3 unit (records flagged extinct or doubtful are dropped) https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test--dataset-1 http://purl.org/dc/terms/license CC BY 4.0 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Dataset: World Checklist of Vascular Plants (WCVP), Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew: wcvp_names.csv and wcvp_distribution.csv in wcvp.zip https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation https://sftp.kew.org/pub/data-repositories/WCVP/wcvp.zip https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasDerivedFrom https://powo.science.kew.org/about-wcvp https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch11-16--claim-test--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasChecksum sha256:d32ea2b3a85e489b14e83bcc9eae7274532e1d113753f7be290d4b2dfde573fa https://w3id.org/np/RAz-LkaUq8kGK_iVqmXb-72nCVHxKJgR8DjS8Cj6aqlgs/provenance https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#SoftwareAgent https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label delphisci claim tester (claude-fable-5.1; 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