https://w3id.org/np/RAyCJgZcb6-QmF5TYdotCiBZlOmkLpaZZYdYIbEJG6drk
.trig | .trig.txt | .jelly | .jelly.txt | .jsonld | .jsonld.txt | .nq | .nq.txt | .xml | .xml.txt
@prefix this: <https://w3id.org/np/RAyCJgZcb6-QmF5TYdotCiBZlOmkLpaZZYdYIbEJG6drk> .
@prefix sub: <https://w3id.org/np/RAyCJgZcb6-QmF5TYdotCiBZlOmkLpaZZYdYIbEJG6drk/> .
@prefix np: <http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#> .
@prefix rdf: <http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#> .
@prefix prov: <http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#> .
@prefix npx: <http://purl.org/nanopub/x/> .
@prefix dc: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
sub:Head {
this: a np:Nanopublication;
np:hasAssertion sub:assertion;
np:hasProvenance sub:provenance;
np:hasPublicationInfo sub:pubinfo .
}
sub:assertion {
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch12-10--claim-test> a <https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment>;
dc:description "analysis.py reads the 43 far island units (> 482.8 km from any landmass >= 100,000 km2) and their GBIF filters from ../darwin1859-ch12-09/derived/units.json. For each unit it counts GBIF bird records (survey proxy, threshold 500), then facets Chiroptera records by speciesKey; for each bat species it fetches the global record count (georeferenced-only for bounding-box units, all records for country-code units) and flags endemism at >= 10 records and >= 95 % inside the unit. A surveyed unit has bats if any species has >= 5 records in it. The pre-registered rule compares the occupancy fraction (thresholds 0.80 / 0.50) and the fraction of bat-occupied units with an endemic bat (0.33 / 0.10). Sensitivities: any single record counts as presence; endemism at >= 80 %.";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment> "Measured: 0.625 fraction of surveyed far island units (>= 500 GBIF bird records) with a bat species having >= 5 GBIF records (n = 40, GBIF snapshot counts; endemism rule >= 10 records and >= 95 % inside unit; units are archipelago-level). Interpretation: Darwin's 'almost every island' is read as 'almost every remote oceanic island group that naturalists have actually searched', since he was generalising from the islands then known; the Aves-record threshold is a proxy for survey effort independent of bats. 'Their own species' is operationalised as GBIF endemism at the unit level; subspecies-level endemics (e.g. the Hawaiian hoary bat, treated by GBIF as Lasiurus cinereus or Aeorestes semotus depending on the backbone) are counted only if the backbone treats them as species. 'Remote' uses the ch12-09 distance rule (> 482.8 km from any landmass >= 100,000 km2), so the test is on the same 43 units for which the absence of terrestrial mammals was tested. Units are archipelago-level (country codes or bounding boxes), so a bat endemic to one island within a group counts as endemic to the unit. The threshold of >= 5 records per species is intended to exclude storm-blown vagrants (e.g. North American bats recorded in Iceland or Bermuda) while keeping genuinely resident but poorly recorded species; a sensitivity with >= 1 record is reported.";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "Claim test of darwin1859-ch12-10: mixed, confidence 0.7";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso> <https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/darwin-origin/darwin1859-ch12-10/result.json>;
prov:wasAttributedTo <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1>;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets> "Planned datasets: gbif-occurrence-api-chiroptera, gbif-occurrence-api-aves, gbif-species-api";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType> "claim-test/0.1.0";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind> "biological";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation> "Refutes if < 50 % of surveyed far units have bats, or if < 10 % of the bat-occupied surveyed units have an endemic bat species. Otherwise mixed. The contrast with non-volant mammals is reported descriptively: the number of far units with an endemic bat species is compared with the number having an endemic non-volant terrestrial mammal from the same GBIF endemism rule (1 of 43 in darwin1859-ch12-09).";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst> "Bermuda's seven bat species (24 records) are all North American migrants or vagrants with no resident population; the >= 5 record rule nonetheless counts Bermuda as occupied, which inflates occupancy slightly in Darwin's favour.",
"Endemism: 5 of 25 bat-occupied units (20 %) have an endemic bat by the strict 95 % rule (Azores, Hawaii, Ogasawara, Reunion, Solomon Islands); 5 far units have an endemic bat versus 1 (Galapagos) with an endemic non-volant mammal in darwin1859-ch12-09, which is the contrast Darwin draws.",
"Hawaii's endemic is counted via the GBIF backbone species Aeorestes semotus (Hawaiian hoary bat), which many authorities treat as a subspecies of the hoary bat; Darwin's 'their own species' is sensitive to such taxonomic rank decisions.",
"Occupancy: 25 of 40 surveyed far units (62.5 %) have a bat species with >= 5 records, between the supports (80 %) and refutes (50 %) thresholds; counting any single record gives 32 of 43 units (74 %). Bats are nearly universal on tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean archipelagos but absent from the remotest eastern Polynesian groups (French Polynesia, Pitcairn, Easter Island), from the South Atlantic islands (St Helena, Ascension, Tristan da Cunha, Falklands, South Georgia), from the subantarctic (Kerguelen) and from Iceland, so 'almost every island' is an overstatement for the most isolated islands Darwin did not know well.",
"Several Pacific units are undersurveyed for bats even above the bird threshold: Niue (0 bat records) and Wallis and Futuna (4 records) are both known to hold Pteropus tonganus; Norfolk Island's Chalinolobus gouldii (2 records) is a historical resident. Correcting these three would raise occupancy to 28 of 40 (70 %), still short of 80 %.",
"The 95 % endemism cut-off is too strict for country-code units: well-known single-archipelago endemics such as Pteropus ornatus (94.9 % of records in New Caledonia), Notopteris neocaledonicus (93.3 %), Pteropus anetianus (92.5 %, Vanuatu), Pteropus aldabrensis (89 %, Seychelles) and Mormopterus acetabulosus (85 %, Mauritius) fall just below it because some museum records lack a country code. At >= 80 % the count rises to 9 of 25 bat-occupied units (36 %) and 18 endemic species, which would satisfy the endemism half of the supports rule; the occupancy half would still fail.",
"Units are archipelago-level (country codes or boxes), so 'island' here means island group; bat-free individual islands within occupied groups are not counted against the claim.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation> "Using the 43 pre-registered island units lying > 300 statute miles from any landmass >= 100,000 km2 (the far units of darwin1859-ch12-09, same GBIF filters and representative points), a unit counts as 'surveyed' if GBIF holds >= 500 non-fossil, non-captive bird (class Aves) records for it. A surveyed unit 'has bats' if at least one Chiroptera species has >= 5 non-fossil, non-captive GBIF records inside the unit (single records are treated as possible vagrants). A bat species is 'endemic' to a unit if it has >= 10 records worldwide and >= 95 % of them inside the unit (same rule as ch12-09). Supports if >= 80 % of surveyed far units have bats AND >= 33 % of the surveyed far units with bats have >= 1 endemic bat species.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion> "Refutes if < 50 % of surveyed far units have bats, or if < 10 % of the bat-occupied surveyed units have an endemic bat species. Otherwise mixed. The contrast with non-volant mammals is reported descriptively: the number of far units with an endemic bat species is compared with the number having an endemic non-volant terrestrial mammal from the same GBIF endemism rule (1 of 43 in darwin1859-ch12-09).";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence> "0.7"^^xsd:double;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence> <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch12-10--claim-test--dataset-1>,
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch12-10--claim-test--dataset-2>,
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch12-10--claim-test--dataset-3>;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict> "mixed";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis> "If Darwin is right, bats are recorded on almost every remote oceanic island group that has been reasonably surveyed, and a substantial share of those groups have bat species found nowhere else, in sharp contrast with the near-absence of native non-volant land mammals on the same islands.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod> "analysis.py reads the 43 far island units (> 482.8 km from any landmass >= 100,000 km2) and their GBIF filters from ../darwin1859-ch12-09/derived/units.json. For each unit it counts GBIF bird records (survey proxy, threshold 500), then facets Chiroptera records by speciesKey; for each bat species it fetches the global record count (georeferenced-only for bounding-box units, all records for country-code units) and flags endemism at >= 10 records and >= 95 % inside the unit. A surveyed unit has bats if any species has >= 5 records in it. The pre-registered rule compares the occupancy fraction (thresholds 0.80 / 0.50) and the fraction of bat-occupied units with an endemic bat (0.33 / 0.10). Sensitivities: any single record counts as presence; endemism at >= 80 %.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion> "Using the 43 pre-registered island units lying > 300 statute miles from any landmass >= 100,000 km2 (the far units of darwin1859-ch12-09, same GBIF filters and representative points), a unit counts as 'surveyed' if GBIF holds >= 500 non-fossil, non-captive bird (class Aves) records for it. A surveyed unit 'has bats' if at least one Chiroptera species has >= 5 non-fossil, non-captive GBIF records inside the unit (single records are treated as possible vagrants). A bat species is 'endemic' to a unit if it has >= 10 records worldwide and >= 95 % of them inside the unit (same rule as ch12-09). Supports if >= 80 % of surveyed far units have bats AND >= 33 % of the surveyed far units with bats have >= 1 endemic bat species.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/preregistered> "false"^^xsd:boolean .
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/claim/darwin1859-ch12-10> <https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasAssessment>
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch12-10--claim-test> .
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch12-10--claim-test--dataset-1>
a <https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem>;
dc:description "bat species recorded per unit with record counts; per-species global counts (one call per species, listed in derived/requests.json) give the fraction inside the unit";
dc:license "per-dataset CC0 / CC BY / CC BY-NC (GBIF aggregate terms)";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "Dataset: GBIF occurrence search API (order Chiroptera, non-fossil, non-captive records), faceted by species per island unit";
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"sha256:2f6c96ba580d49879e969b4bdb55e39ee117f85f797bd111c8a125dea36b5efc", "sha256:2f9323612c253bf02b3c17fdef1a1cba4da20f8b3b1924b6102df51e284b7a60",
"sha256:32a9db6d9009d995bd326d41687479afc4ad2971873af3d7a671d214c05c3ce7", "sha256:34e40f3db0f336bd2af33c30789785c55a15208118bfada28827c5e94e44bba8",
"sha256:3901a04917b1931494a78673e20d7105708ed4efcf13e24c734d888a6d272927", "sha256:3a766b752b0e5dac20e1d94e1aa612411e2a56b264326d5ab0f308e7eddc4908",
"sha256:3ac6c34687a17053e57fd3e4aecdc8498edbaa9d1b3cf4ec5593d5e5c49d9285", "sha256:412367928c06c7954010805865dc3a87b0b82af0d3492f5cea75c850ae563598",
"sha256:54e37c078e6ddc08c81a72b31488fbe933cb9e6b6a3e162d0c1a4e13d322a930", "sha256:5ddca37294fee9f88cf9fe476150a8585c0428c5f54b322401c01951942ce743",
"sha256:5ea4ad8dadf7c634a64969a1abf7c4dbe8892418464cf6313a0a90f702444e70", "sha256:6859c327a9e602f2c4cb779078e71a4df6f55ef6d39e13a91d5ee051bcb04cd4",
"sha256:6f619976008193d1f9e39be7d387b52c002d69468ee30e2dc24172ea06f0fec2", "sha256:775c215a36f6783cf6ba8bd4f0367b66618e7e1645fbddbc71fe3e559bbbfb2b",
"sha256:79326b5235ed03ebff5ddbe06e75be02c3b1535e5cc41d10dba1b4486cb1d1d9", "sha256:7d218b15afb78eeaef8d0d7193963dc6d33ac7b7e9bbf2ffdeb43ee37d2f165c",
"sha256:7e12344358dcd0183ac0c9e282ba70c6976bf3c0b3a5827de4a78f20a96ae70b", "sha256:7e9ca36d8ca4cc68bdeafb40a8dd46855aa7093d8c4a04ca752ec03ee6039e7d",
"sha256:818bd7f9f39c312a73694b8c36e9f40f99c528bbfe04d7fdb244cbb399648f1e", "sha256:8563a17866321c4a554c6484dfe7221cee6bc205b7376b44eadb5fea84bfe8f1",
"sha256:9d33c259be17729b304f3151fe6dbe4be37240241237a9ed23136b8ae854bbc0", "sha256:a9b59c32011c5d49bc0db5301381811548a7682864a4177062c484b069132862",
"sha256:ae3ffe3da7beeadf41e266ac4b2ca912e87c1564e2691518b139dba936942fcd", "sha256:b28a450a978e94dfe1bc30eaa3787eea858382c82baaed7180486c7260873687",
"sha256:b87c8fb0a55d01c877b0da0e44731139ca906b091b81e720f800a9d59ea6ede7", "sha256:c71860352cebc6ebbeefa36a02f565107dee71a52429c3f123bf69edc907c643",
"sha256:ccd6d4f55827ac1b4595ba7ab35d9f0f1b17cdfc05332fdc15f3ff74dfe61922", "sha256:cdc137f9b4d718930b8c622307f4154361b4ba69a9a22372d57e114347e9c7d8",
"sha256:d17d270b674225442c4d4737a703a5b115b6fac61166d85b425316074282e8ee", "sha256:d310dac43bb4b67d73601bb7a319a23278a8cbf3829a9ecfe7061f1ebd57f5bc",
"sha256:eaad2809df4a3f1630e0e5d62b26f9c7342ffba24282f6408c21b9cb3a0ec9fb", "sha256:ef6965a075f7ade858558a6ac1eb7b225e7623efbc17929d63b54d17521e5b8e",
"sha256:f9b6b3183bb31f88eb8e477f364ef310cfd2e2116225515a182e8d66ae4bc10d", "sha256:fe3b71750bccd46ad98e3710a88255c1506490cf2a1551b49d25f93ffa6d8602" .
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch12-10--claim-test--dataset-3>
a <https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem>;
dc:description "canonical name and family for each speciesKey (109 calls, URLs and checksums in derived/requests.json)";
dc:license "CC BY 4.0";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "Dataset: GBIF species API (backbone taxonomy)";
prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://api.gbif.org/v1/species/> .
}
sub:provenance {
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1> a
prov:SoftwareAgent;
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "delphisci claim tester (claude-fable-5.1; cursor/claim-tests-darwin-batch-6221)";
prov:actedOnBehalfOf <https://orcid.org/0009-0007-4948-9192>;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/usesModel> <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/model/claude-fable-5-1> .
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/model/claude-fable-5-1> a <https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/LanguageModel>;
dc:identifier "claude-fable-5.1" .
sub:assertion prov:wasAttributedTo <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1>;
prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/darwin-origin/darwin1859-ch12-10/result.json>;
prov:wasGeneratedBy sub:test .
sub:plan prov:hadPlan <https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/README.md> .
sub:test a prov:Activity;
prov:qualifiedAssociation sub:plan;
prov:wasAssociatedWith <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1> .
}
sub:pubinfo {
this: dc:created "2026-11-08T16:24:31.855Z"^^xsd:dateTime;
dc:creator <https://orcid.org/0009-0007-4948-9192>;
dc:license <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/>;
npx:hasNanopubType <https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment>;
npx:introduces <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch12-10--claim-test>;
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "Claim test of darwin1859-ch12-10: mixed, confidence 0.7";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/domain> <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/domain/darwin-origin-1859> .
sub:sig npx:hasAlgorithm "RSA";
npx:hasPublicKey "MIIBIjANBgkqhkiG9w0BAQEFAAOCAQ8AMIIBCgKCAQEAyFHtPB6p0mCjDozxlOY9CmO3nBm7Te3jFbXyLmM+G1tGe47Da0jYIbhkl9Oo1ZjxmCa3LCwlEqK8gj6hEIcL4ahW30JXh9HycfKVk1bugkzMEV15tJdTzAU3sGMFnbNsn43xY2LFLy45tApkRm5byEiM7oRRrooIdwoQKnP4Wzq/bfAoJ9qvW+MGkelyOTd1jbSt+KfmT7xKmDfWzAHddUlWwMX2QJOLxDaffOteTop6ZRgPiNmPJKA/S62Gac9XtSYT3oDkZ6/nr5cxxNLpOyxTf5FPISiCe11xYO/unYjY+mwnOfA8yhJIyx1l0O9I0vpOpn+E5TvyHJV+oSTrvwIDAQAB";
npx:hasSignature "Wb5qQ2eJO+o1sMlI0QsXbEAHIJMjfwc1mcGOrZM2c0ii6sE3lSzb+hmeVIhJreP6NJWD6KBorgmZI82WS/H2f6mG4u46EcFApTqo2am5A8JOV4lebRVnYvzkLKyiLSslTkDdKOfY8MB2028z04XtMlifhARNkIuK25h0LbmblEvjnFBkv3VJDdYm6xdfhYxgr1X5XFj0rZq8Kqz86wgabs2icIlizNboGmXNRD2Nd2CRlAJbaUfU3afOGgURVT1B7f6+oSVAJ3j906wdw8IVAQantIFpVPBuZCqCjBmlpTgv6yFh2x/RQnpQ4f0vQtbVL+0i85T98SCx5R9rlVUqSw==";
npx:hasSignatureTarget this:;
npx:signedBy <https://orcid.org/0009-0007-4948-9192> .
}