https://w3id.org/np/RAwx7T8_SpVXJx-jwzQM9v_ifsfTkH3vk6sb2zvPIzDIw/Head https://w3id.org/np/RAwx7T8_SpVXJx-jwzQM9v_ifsfTkH3vk6sb2zvPIzDIw http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion https://w3id.org/np/RAwx7T8_SpVXJx-jwzQM9v_ifsfTkH3vk6sb2zvPIzDIw/assertion https://w3id.org/np/RAwx7T8_SpVXJx-jwzQM9v_ifsfTkH3vk6sb2zvPIzDIw http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasProvenance https://w3id.org/np/RAwx7T8_SpVXJx-jwzQM9v_ifsfTkH3vk6sb2zvPIzDIw/provenance https://w3id.org/np/RAwx7T8_SpVXJx-jwzQM9v_ifsfTkH3vk6sb2zvPIzDIw http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasPublicationInfo https://w3id.org/np/RAwx7T8_SpVXJx-jwzQM9v_ifsfTkH3vk6sb2zvPIzDIw/pubinfo https://w3id.org/np/RAwx7T8_SpVXJx-jwzQM9v_ifsfTkH3vk6sb2zvPIzDIw http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#Nanopublication https://w3id.org/np/RAwx7T8_SpVXJx-jwzQM9v_ifsfTkH3vk6sb2zvPIzDIw/assertion https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-27--claim-test http://purl.org/dc/terms/description Downloaded the AnAge build zip and the PanTHERIA WR05 table. Kept rows whose genus is Elephas or Loxodonta, read gestation in days and litter size, treated negative sentinels as missing, and applied the pre-registered day window and litter bands. Gestation clause: supports. Litter clause: mixed. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-27--claim-test http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-27--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment Measured: 1.41 maximum recorded litter size among elephant rows with a value (n = 4, gestation clause supports; litter clause mixed; gestation days [644.0, 670.0, 634.49, 660.0]). Interpretation: The claim says 'two years' and 'only one young at a time' (uniparous). Two years is read at the resolution of a year: the reported length must be closer to two years than to one or three, using a 365.25-day year. Uniparous is read as a species-typical litter of one. A mean of at most 1.05 still counts as one, because a few twins do not make the typical birth a multiple. A mean of 1.5 or more means more than one is usual. The word 'never' is not in this sentence; a mean of 1 does not prove twins are impossible, and the test does not claim that it does. Scope is elephants, so both living species named Elephas maximus and Loxodonta africana have to be present for a support. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-27--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Claim test of aristotle-ha05-27: mixed, confidence 0.74 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-27--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/aristotle-biology/aristotle-ha05-27/result.json https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-27--claim-test http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-27--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets Open, species-level life-history compilations that record gestation length in days and litter size for mammals, assembled independently of Aristotle's text. Rows must be named to genus Elephas or Loxodonta. A negative or documented sentinel is missing data, not a measurement. A range is scored at its midpoint. Subspecies rows are folded into the species binomial before the test. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-27--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType claim-test/0.1.0 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-27--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind biological https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-27--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation A gestation nearer to one year or to three years than to two, or a species-typical litter of 1.5 or more, in any elephant species the table contains. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-27--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Column names were not inspected in the elephant rows before this file was committed. The script selects the gestation column and the litter-size column by header text. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-27--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Loxodonta cyclotis is in PanTHERIA with both fields missing, so it casts no vote. Elephant shrews and the elephant fish are other genera and were excluded by the pre-registered genus filter. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-27--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst PanTHERIA litter sizes are 1.41 for Elephas maximus and 0.84 for Loxodonta africana. AnAge records 1 for both. This test does not re-derive those means from the papers PanTHERIA cites. The 0.84 value is below one offspring and still fails the pass interval [1.0, 1.05]. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-27--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst The two-year clause passes only under the pre-registered year-resolution window. The four gestation values are 634.49 to 670 days, about 1.74 to 1.83 years, which is nearer two years than one or three and is shorter than 24 months. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-27--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation Species-typical gestation of living elephants sits nearer two years than one or three years, and the recorded litter size is one young. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-27--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion Pre-registered (claim refuted). Gestation outside (547.875, 913.125) days for any Elephas or Loxodonta species, in every database that reports that species, refutes the two-year clause. Litter size >= 1.5 for any such species refutes the uniparous clause. Either failure refutes the claim. If the two databases disagree on whether a species' gestation is inside the window, or one species passes and another fails, the verdict is mixed. Litter size in (1.05, 1.5), with gestation inside the window and no litter >= 1.5, is mixed. If neither database has a gestation for any Elephas or Loxodonta species, the verdict is inconclusive with reason data-unavailable. If gestation is missing for the litter clause entirely while gestation itself passes, the verdict is inconclusive with reason data-unavailable. If only one of Elephas maximus and Loxodonta africana has data and that species passes both clauses, the verdict is inconclusive with reason underpowered. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-27--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence 0.74 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-27--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha05-27--claim-test--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-27--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha05-27--claim-test--dataset-2 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-27--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict mixed https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-27--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis If the female elephant carries her young for two years and bears only one at a time, every living elephant species in the life-history tables has a gestation nearer to two years than to one or three years, and a species-typical litter size of one. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-27--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod Compare each species' gestation with the fixed day window (547.875, 913.125) and each litter size with [1.0, 1.05], (1.05, 1.5) and >= 1.5. Support only if both required species pass both clauses and the databases do not disagree. Refute if any species fails gestation or has litter size >= 1.5. Mixed on disagreement or on a litter size in the intermediate band. No resolvability score is used. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-27--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion Pre-registered (claim supported). In both AnAge and PanTHERIA, wherever a value is present: gestation length for Elephas maximus and for Loxodonta africana falls in the open interval (547.875, 913.125) days, which is nearer to 730.5 days (2 × 365.25) than to 365.25 or to 1095.75 days; and litter size falls in [1.0, 1.05]. Any further species in genus Elephas or Loxodonta that has a value must meet the same two tests. Where both databases report the same species and quantity, they must agree on which side of the threshold the value falls. 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