https://w3id.org/np/RAwgS6kfSYkyFIFWPOQLt-3Moa3qDqDSVzj-HHvc2BObs/Head https://w3id.org/np/RAwgS6kfSYkyFIFWPOQLt-3Moa3qDqDSVzj-HHvc2BObs http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion https://w3id.org/np/RAwgS6kfSYkyFIFWPOQLt-3Moa3qDqDSVzj-HHvc2BObs/assertion https://w3id.org/np/RAwgS6kfSYkyFIFWPOQLt-3Moa3qDqDSVzj-HHvc2BObs http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasProvenance https://w3id.org/np/RAwgS6kfSYkyFIFWPOQLt-3Moa3qDqDSVzj-HHvc2BObs/provenance https://w3id.org/np/RAwgS6kfSYkyFIFWPOQLt-3Moa3qDqDSVzj-HHvc2BObs http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasPublicationInfo https://w3id.org/np/RAwgS6kfSYkyFIFWPOQLt-3Moa3qDqDSVzj-HHvc2BObs/pubinfo https://w3id.org/np/RAwgS6kfSYkyFIFWPOQLt-3Moa3qDqDSVzj-HHvc2BObs http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#Nanopublication https://w3id.org/np/RAwgS6kfSYkyFIFWPOQLt-3Moa3qDqDSVzj-HHvc2BObs/assertion https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-25--claim-test--pr-101 http://purl.org/dc/terms/description Downloaded Eurostat demo_frate filtered to EU27_2020 and the NCHS 2024 US natality public-use zip. Female age-specific rates in completed years were read for the latest year; a10 is the youngest age at or above 30 below 10 percent of the peak rate at ages 15-49, and age 50 is compared with 1 percent of that peak. Father's combined age (bytes 147-148) was counted the same way, excluding code 99, on records of 1345 characters plus CRLF. The conjunction follows the pre-registered rule. The record-length gate is the deviation recorded in this file: the user guide says 1330 and the shipped file is 1345. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-25--claim-test--pr-101 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-25--claim-test--pr-101 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment Measured: 43 female a10, youngest age at or above 30 below 10 percent of peak fertility (n = 3638436). Interpretation: Aristotle's 'as a rule ... up to' is read as the age at which childbearing has become uncommon (under a tenth of the peak), not as the modal age of parents. 'At most ... and these are rare' is read as under a hundredth of the peak at 50 for women and at 70 for men. Female rates are births per woman. Male figures are birth counts by father's age: an observed birth shows that a man of that age was generative, but the count is not an age-specific rate and is shaped by who has a child in a given year. Mother's age in the US file collapses 50 and over into one code, so the EU rate series is the female measurement. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-25--claim-test--pr-101 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Claim test of aristotle-ha05-25 (pr-101): refutes, confidence 0.7 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-25--claim-test--pr-101 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/aristotle-biology/aristotle-ha05-25/pr-101/result.json https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-25--claim-test--pr-101 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-25--claim-test--pr-101 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets A national or multi-country vital-statistics series of female age-specific fertility rates, and a national birth register with single-year age of father, both public, both independent of Aristotle's text, covering a recent complete year. Counts are used for fathers because the public-use file has no male population denominator. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-25--claim-test--pr-101 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType claim-test/0.1.0 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-25--claim-test--pr-101 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind biological https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-25--claim-test--pr-101 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation Fertility or fatherhood is still at least a hundredth of its peak at the stated maximum (50 for women, 70 for men), or the age at which it falls below a tenth of the peak is more than about five years away from 45 or 65 in the direction the fail_criterion states. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-25--claim-test--pr-101 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst At registration https://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/Datasets/DVS/natality/Nat2024us.zip answered HTTP 200 with content-length 231829759 and the zip was not downloaded. The completed run hashed Nat2024us.zip and counted FAGECOMB on the streamed member. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-25--claim-test--pr-101 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst At registration the Eurostat statistics API answered HTTP 200 to a header request and the body was not downloaded. The completed run downloaded demo_frate.json; the female rates are from that body. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-25--claim-test--pr-101 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Before registration the 2024 user guide was read for record length (1330) and for the positions and value labels of MAGER and FAGECOMB. No birth record was read and no rate was retrieved. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-25--claim-test--pr-101 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst MAGER code 50 means 50 years and over, so the US file cannot separate 50 from later maternal ages. It is the fallback only. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-25--claim-test--pr-101 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Modern contraception and partnership patterns move the observed schedule earlier than biological capacity, especially for men. A male refutation on birth counts is a statement about ages at recorded fatherhood, not a semen analysis. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-25--claim-test--pr-101 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation Female age-specific fertility in the EU falls below a tenth of its peak between ages 42 and 48, is still positive at 45, and is under a hundredth of the peak at 50. In a complete US birth year, fatherhood falls below a tenth of its peak single-year count between 60 and 70, still occurs at 65, and the count at 70 is under a hundredth of the peak. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-25--claim-test--pr-101 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion Pre-registered (claim refuted). The claim is refuted if either sex refutes. Women refute if the age-50 rate is at least 0.01*p, or a10 is 50 or older, or a10 is 40 or younger. Men refute if the count at 70 is at least 0.01*p, or a10 is 75 or older, or a10 is 55 or younger. If neither sex refutes and they do not both support, the verdict is mixed. If Eurostat cannot be retrieved, the same female thresholds are applied to US birth counts (MAGER, positions 75-76; code 50 is the pooled 50-and-over bin and is compared with the peak single year). If a required file cannot be retrieved and the sex that was retrieved does not refute, the verdict is inconclusive with reason data-unavailable. Fewer than 1,000,000 parsed US birth records, or a record length other than 1330 after stripping the line ending, is inconclusive with reason data-unavailable. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-25--claim-test--pr-101 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence 0.7 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-25--claim-test--pr-101 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha05-25--claim-test--pr-101--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-25--claim-test--pr-101 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha05-25--claim-test--pr-101--dataset-2 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-25--claim-test--pr-101 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict refutes https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-25--claim-test--pr-101 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis If men are as a rule generative to about sixty-five and women capable of conception to about forty-five, with seventy and fifty only as rare outer limits, then the age at which fertility or births fall below a tenth of their peak is near those rule-ages, and the rate or count at the stated maxima is under a hundredth of the peak. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-25--claim-test--pr-101 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod Compare each single-year rate or count with the peak at ages of childbearing. a10 is the first age, at or above 30 for women and 40 for men, below 10 percent of that peak. The stated maximum is rare when it is below 1 percent of the peak. The claim is a conjunction of the two sexes. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha05-25--claim-test--pr-101 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion Pre-registered (claim supported). Both sexes support. Women, from Eurostat demo_frate age-specific fertility rates for EU27_2020 (code EU27_2020), age in completed years, latest year with single-year rates for ages 15 through 49: let p be the maximum rate at ages 15-49, and let a10 be the youngest age at or above 30 whose rate is below 0.10*p. Women support if a10 is between 42 and 48 inclusive, the rate at 45 is positive, and the rate at 50 (single year if present, otherwise the open-ended 50+ class, otherwise 0 when ages 47-49 are present and the series stops at 49) is below 0.01*p. Men, from the NCHS 2024 natality public-use file, father's combined age FAGECOMB (positions 147-148; 99 unknown excluded; ages 15-80): let p be the maximum single-year count and a10 the youngest age at or above 40 whose count is below 0.10*p. 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