https://w3id.org/np/RAvo4ddtBovXP5PsvI0z9tI0HkdYlYVlo5UVU5Gd-xlLk/Head https://w3id.org/np/RAvo4ddtBovXP5PsvI0z9tI0HkdYlYVlo5UVU5Gd-xlLk http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion https://w3id.org/np/RAvo4ddtBovXP5PsvI0z9tI0HkdYlYVlo5UVU5Gd-xlLk/assertion https://w3id.org/np/RAvo4ddtBovXP5PsvI0z9tI0HkdYlYVlo5UVU5Gd-xlLk http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasProvenance https://w3id.org/np/RAvo4ddtBovXP5PsvI0z9tI0HkdYlYVlo5UVU5Gd-xlLk/provenance https://w3id.org/np/RAvo4ddtBovXP5PsvI0z9tI0HkdYlYVlo5UVU5Gd-xlLk http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasPublicationInfo https://w3id.org/np/RAvo4ddtBovXP5PsvI0z9tI0HkdYlYVlo5UVU5Gd-xlLk/pubinfo https://w3id.org/np/RAvo4ddtBovXP5PsvI0z9tI0HkdYlYVlo5UVU5Gd-xlLk http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#Nanopublication https://w3id.org/np/RAvo4ddtBovXP5PsvI0z9tI0HkdYlYVlo5UVU5Gd-xlLk/assertion https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test http://purl.org/dc/terms/description For each of 9 higher taxa the accepted extinct families with occurrences were listed from PBDB taxa/list. For every family whose recorded span was >= 5 Myr, occs/diversity (count=genera, time_reso=stage) gave per-stage counts; range-through richness R = X_bt + X_Ft + X_bL + X_FL was taken from the first to the last stage with R > 0, and the number of genera = sum(X_Ft + X_FL). Families with >= 10 genera and >= 6 stage bins qualified (n = 313). Each trajectory was scored for low start (R_first <= 0.5 max), low end (R_last <= 0.5 max) and a single peak (bins with R > 0.5 max contiguous); the fraction scoring all three was compared with the pre-registered thresholds (>= 0.667 supports, < 0.5 refutes), with a Clopper-Pearson 95% CI. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment Measured: 0.5847 fraction of qualifying extinct families with low start, low end and a single peak (n = 313, 95% Clopper-Pearson CI [0.528, 0.640]). Interpretation: Darwin's 'group' is read as a family and 'number of species' as number of genera per stage (the level with usable fossil coverage, as both assessors note). 'Gradual increase to a maximum, then gradual decrease' is operationalised as the three shape conditions (a)-(c): low start, low end, single peak. The sampled higher taxa are fixed in advance: Trilobita, Brachiopoda, Cephalopoda, Bivalvia, Gastropoda, Crinoidea, Anthozoa, Echinoidea, Bryozoa. Only extinct families are used because the decline-to-extinction half of the claim is only observable for them. Counts are raw range-through counts from the Paleobiology Database diversity endpoint at stage resolution; no sampling standardisation is applied, which is recorded as a caveat. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Claim test of darwin1859-ch10-06: mixed, confidence 0.7 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/darwin-origin/darwin1859-ch10-06/result.json https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets Planned datasets: paleobiodb-data1.2-api https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType claim-test/0.1.0 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind biological https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation Pre-registered: REFUTED if fewer than half (< 0.5) of qualifying families are Darwinian. A fraction in [0.5, 0.667) is MIXED. If fewer than 50 families qualify the result is inconclusive (underpowered). https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst 59 of 313 families have at least one interior stage with no genus recorded or ranging through (Lazarus gaps); they were kept as pre-registered (the criterion did not provide for dropping them) and are less often single-peaked (49% vs 61%). https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Bivalvia (0.33, n=27) and Crinoidea (0.45, n=20) fall below 0.5; Brachiopoda, Trilobita, Cephalopoda, Anthozoa and Bryozoa are all between 0.61 and 0.69. Echinoidea contributed no qualifying extinct family. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Only extinct families were used, so the result says nothing about families still at or before their maximum. 'Group' was read as family and 'number of species' as number of genera; species-within-genus counts were not tested. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Range-through counting at stage resolution structurally favours low first and last bins (a family's first bin can only contain genera that originate in it), so the start/end components are partly a counting artefact; peak position (median 0.43 of the way through the family's duration) and the medians of 6 bins of rise and 8 bins of fall are more informative. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Raw PBDB counts were used without sampling standardisation; uneven rock record and research effort produce spurious secondary peaks and troughs, which bias against the single-peak condition. Stage bins vary in length (about 2-15 Myr). https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst The PBDB is a live resource; re-running reproduces the method but counts drift as occurrences are added. Response checksums at retrieval time are in derived/fetch_log.csv.gz. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst The two 'gradual' components of the claim are strongly supported: 93% of families start and 95% end at <= half their maximum genus richness, and only 2.6% peak in their first and 1.0% in their last stage. What fails is the single-maximum component: 34% of families have two or more separate peaks above half-maximum, so the overall fraction (0.58) falls in the pre-registered MIXED band. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation Pre-registered: a family's trajectory is scored 'Darwinian' when, with R_i = range-through genus richness in stage bin i (from the family's first to last bin) and M = max R_i: (a) R_first <= 0.5 M, (b) R_last <= 0.5 M, and (c) the set of bins with R_i > 0.5 M is contiguous (a single peak). The claim is SUPPORTED if at least two thirds (>= 0.667) of qualifying families are Darwinian, where qualifying = extinct family within the sampled higher taxa with >= 10 genera having occurrences and a duration spanning >= 6 stage bins. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion Pre-registered: REFUTED if fewer than half (< 0.5) of qualifying families are Darwinian. A fraction in [0.5, 0.667) is MIXED. If fewer than 50 families qualify the result is inconclusive (underpowered). https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence 0.7 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict mixed https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis For extinct marine-invertebrate families, the number of genera recorded per geological stage rises from a low value at the family's first appearance to an interior maximum and then declines to a low value at its last appearance, rather than appearing or disappearing at or near maximal diversity or showing several separate peaks. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod For each of 9 higher taxa the accepted extinct families with occurrences were listed from PBDB taxa/list. For every family whose recorded span was >= 5 Myr, occs/diversity (count=genera, time_reso=stage) gave per-stage counts; range-through richness R = X_bt + X_Ft + X_bL + X_FL was taken from the first to the last stage with R > 0, and the number of genera = sum(X_Ft + X_FL). Families with >= 10 genera and >= 6 stage bins qualified (n = 313). Each trajectory was scored for low start (R_first <= 0.5 max), low end (R_last <= 0.5 max) and a single peak (bins with R > 0.5 max contiguous); the fraction scoring all three was compared with the pre-registered thresholds (>= 0.667 supports, < 0.5 refutes), with a Clopper-Pearson 95% CI. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion Pre-registered: a family's trajectory is scored 'Darwinian' when, with R_i = range-through genus richness in stage bin i (from the family's first to last bin) and M = max R_i: (a) R_first <= 0.5 M, (b) R_last <= 0.5 M, and (c) the set of bins with R_i > 0.5 M is contiguous (a single peak). The claim is SUPPORTED if at least two thirds (>= 0.667) of qualifying families are Darwinian, where qualifying = extinct family within the sampled higher taxa with >= 10 genera having occurrences and a duration spanning >= 6 stage bins. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/preregistered false https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/claim/darwin1859-ch10-06 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasAssessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test--dataset-1 http://purl.org/dc/terms/description extinct families of nine marine invertebrate higher taxa and their genus richness per stage https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test--dataset-1 http://purl.org/dc/terms/license CC BY 4.0 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch10-06--claim-test--dataset-1 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