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https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/wolfram2002-ch09-17--claim-test
http://purl.org/dc/terms/description
analysis.py enumerates all 2305 one- and two-rule systems over {A,B} with lhs length 1-3 and strictly shorter rhs, classifies each syntactically as non-overlapping (37 systems; lhs sets {A}, {B}, {A,B}, {AB}, {BA}, {AAB}, {ABB}, {BAA}, {BBA}) or overlapping (2268), and for each of the 62 initial strings of length 1-5 generates every complete evolution by depth-first search over all possible replacement choices, tracking element identities so that each event is identified by (rule, consumed elements) and the causal network by its identity-labelled edges. Networks from different orders are compared first for identity and then, if they differ, up to isomorphism by brute force over event permutations. A supplementary (not pre-registered) run covers all 127 non-overlapping systems with lhs length up to 4 (which includes genuinely non-overlapping pairs such as {AAB, BBBA} and {AABB, BBAA}) from all 126 initial strings of length 1-6. Run time about 3 s.
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/wolfram2002-ch09-17--claim-test
http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/wolfram2002-ch09-17--claim-test
http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment
Measured: 1 fraction of non-overlapping (rule set, initial string) pairs with >= 2 complete evolutions whose causal networks all coincide (n = 186, exact (exhaustive within the family)). Interpretation: Wolfram's generalized substitution systems (NKS pp. 497-503) replace one occurrence of a left-hand block at a time; which occurrence, and when, is the free choice of 'order'. A causal network has one node per replacement event and an edge from event P to event E whenever E's matched block contains an element that P produced; the initial condition is represented by a node 0 that 'produces' the initial elements. Two orders give 'the same causal network' if the networks are isomorphic as node-labelled directed graphs (labels = rule applied, node 0 fixed). Non-overlap is the syntactic condition of p. 503: no non-empty proper suffix of any block equals a prefix of any block (including the block itself), and no block is a substring of another. To compare complete histories across orders, the enumeration is restricted to systems whose every rule strictly shortens the string (|rhs| < |lhs|), so every evolution terminates after finitely many events; all complete evolutions (all choices at every step) from every initial string of length <= 5 over {A, B} are generated exhaustively. Wolfram's weaker condition (no overlap among strings actually generated) is not tested.
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/wolfram2002-ch09-17--claim-test
http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label
Claim test of wolfram2002-ch09-17: supports, confidence 0.93
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/wolfram2002-ch09-17--claim-test
http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso
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https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/wolfram2002-ch09-17--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets
Planned datasets: shrinking-substitution-systems-2-letters-exhaustive
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/wolfram2002-ch09-17--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType
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https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/wolfram2002-ch09-17--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind
computational
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/wolfram2002-ch09-17--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation
Pre-registered: at least one non-overlapping (rule set, initial string) pair whose complete evolutions produce two or more non-isomorphic causal networks.
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/wolfram2002-ch09-17--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst
The enumeration is restricted to terminating (strictly shrinking) systems so that complete histories can be compared; for non-terminating systems the statement concerns infinite causal networks and was not tested. Within the family the result is exhaustive: all 186 (primary) and 524 (supplementary) non-overlapping cases with a genuine choice of order gave identical, not merely isomorphic, causal networks and identical final strings, while 96.6% of overlapping rule sets showed order-dependent networks for some initial string, so the non-overlap condition is doing real work.
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/wolfram2002-ch09-17--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst
Within the pre-registered family (lhs length <= 3) every non-overlapping rule set has a single multi-letter block or only single-letter blocks; non-overlapping pairs of multi-letter blocks appear only in the supplementary run with blocks of length 4, which was added after the primary run and is reported separately.
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/wolfram2002-ch09-17--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst
Wolfram's weaker condition (no overlaps among the strings actually generated) and his extension to network rewriting systems were not tested; the causal-network definition (edge from the event that produced an element to the event that consumes it, with an 'init' node for the initial condition) follows pp. 497-503 but the book gives it only pictorially.
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/wolfram2002-ch09-17--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation
Pre-registered: among all enumerated (rule set, initial string) pairs whose rule set is syntactically non-overlapping and which admit at least two distinct complete evolutions, 100% have exactly one causal-network isomorphism class (and one final string) over all complete evolutions; and at least 10% of the overlapping rule sets exhibit at least two non-isomorphic causal networks for some initial string (otherwise the test has no discriminating power and the verdict is 'inconclusive', reason 'not-operationalizable').
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/wolfram2002-ch09-17--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion
Pre-registered: at least one non-overlapping (rule set, initial string) pair whose complete evolutions produce two or more non-isomorphic causal networks.
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/wolfram2002-ch09-17--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence
0.93
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/wolfram2002-ch09-17--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/wolfram2002-ch09-17--claim-test--dataset-1
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supports
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/wolfram2002-ch09-17--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis
For every string substitution system whose left-hand-side blocks can never overlap themselves or each other, every possible order of performing replacements from a given initial string yields the same causal network (up to isomorphism), whereas systems with overlapping blocks can yield different causal networks for different orders.
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/wolfram2002-ch09-17--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod
analysis.py enumerates all 2305 one- and two-rule systems over {A,B} with lhs length 1-3 and strictly shorter rhs, classifies each syntactically as non-overlapping (37 systems; lhs sets {A}, {B}, {A,B}, {AB}, {BA}, {AAB}, {ABB}, {BAA}, {BBA}) or overlapping (2268), and for each of the 62 initial strings of length 1-5 generates every complete evolution by depth-first search over all possible replacement choices, tracking element identities so that each event is identified by (rule, consumed elements) and the causal network by its identity-labelled edges. Networks from different orders are compared first for identity and then, if they differ, up to isomorphism by brute force over event permutations. A supplementary (not pre-registered) run covers all 127 non-overlapping systems with lhs length up to 4 (which includes genuinely non-overlapping pairs such as {AAB, BBBA} and {AABB, BBAA}) from all 126 initial strings of length 1-6. Run time about 3 s.
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/wolfram2002-ch09-17--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion
Pre-registered: among all enumerated (rule set, initial string) pairs whose rule set is syntactically non-overlapping and which admit at least two distinct complete evolutions, 100% have exactly one causal-network isomorphism class (and one final string) over all complete evolutions; and at least 10% of the overlapping rule sets exhibit at least two non-isomorphic causal networks for some initial string (otherwise the test has no discriminating power and the verdict is 'inconclusive', reason 'not-operationalizable').
https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/wolfram2002-ch09-17--claim-test
https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/preregistered
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http://purl.org/dc/terms/description
exhaustive finite family; non-overlapping systems are the test set, overlapping ones the control
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https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/wolfram2002-ch09-17--claim-test--dataset-1
http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label
Dataset: All one- and two-rule string substitution systems over {A,B} with left-hand blocks of length 1-3 and strictly shorter right-hand sides, all initial strings of length 1-5, all complete evolutions (generated by analysis.py)
https://w3id.org/np/RApmDBBdvhmqwZCWp4bWMlxy6BFnZivZP2Mr8DNZ_3srI/provenance
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