https://w3id.org/np/RAjXPyYHEnSFVDpXuT1AkaNPH7RfIPIHdVsxM94ArU7eM/Head https://w3id.org/np/RAjXPyYHEnSFVDpXuT1AkaNPH7RfIPIHdVsxM94ArU7eM http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion https://w3id.org/np/RAjXPyYHEnSFVDpXuT1AkaNPH7RfIPIHdVsxM94ArU7eM/assertion https://w3id.org/np/RAjXPyYHEnSFVDpXuT1AkaNPH7RfIPIHdVsxM94ArU7eM http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasProvenance https://w3id.org/np/RAjXPyYHEnSFVDpXuT1AkaNPH7RfIPIHdVsxM94ArU7eM/provenance https://w3id.org/np/RAjXPyYHEnSFVDpXuT1AkaNPH7RfIPIHdVsxM94ArU7eM http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasPublicationInfo https://w3id.org/np/RAjXPyYHEnSFVDpXuT1AkaNPH7RfIPIHdVsxM94ArU7eM/pubinfo https://w3id.org/np/RAjXPyYHEnSFVDpXuT1AkaNPH7RfIPIHdVsxM94ArU7eM http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#Nanopublication https://w3id.org/np/RAjXPyYHEnSFVDpXuT1AkaNPH7RfIPIHdVsxM94ArU7eM/assertion https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test http://purl.org/dc/terms/description Bear: ordinary least-squares regression of litter size on the mother's pedigree inbreeding coefficient over 66 litters (29 mothers), one-sided test for a negative slope; the litter's own inbreeding coefficient and mother-level means are reported as extras. Fly: the DATA sheet of the Dryad workbook was parsed; offspring fecundity ('F eggs per vial') of within-population random crosses (type 1) in the inbred treatments was compared with the outbred control, and inter-population crosses (type 2) were compared with within-population crosses in each population-size x generation cell (relative heterosis), plus a pooled one-sided Mann-Whitney test. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment Measured: -1.2384953568923254 cubs per litter per unit maternal inbreeding coefficient (OLS slope) (n = 66, SE 0.716; one-sided p = 0.0443). Interpretation: Darwin's 'close interbreeding lessens fertility' is read as inbreeding depression in a fertility component (litter size in a wild mammal; fecundity in a laboratory fly), and 'an occasional cross with a distinct individual or variety increases it' as heterosis on crossing distinct inbred populations. The inbreeding coefficient (Wright's F) is a post-Darwinian quantity. The clause attributing the decline of multi-generation hybrids to close interbreeding is not tested; only the general inbreeding-depression and heterosis pattern is. Exact column names and the form of the inbreeding variable were not inspected before pre-registration; the mapping used is stated in 'method'. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Claim test of darwin1859-ch08-02: supports, confidence 0.65 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/darwin-origin/darwin1859-ch08-02/result.json https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets Planned datasets: dryad-auclair2025-pyrenean-brown-bear-inbreeding, dryad-pekkala2014-drosophila-littoralis-inbreeding-heterosis https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType claim-test/0.1.0 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind biological https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation Refuted if the litter-size slope on inbreeding is >= 0 (or not significantly negative) and inbred Drosophila populations are not less fecund than the outbred control. Clause (ii)(b) failing alone (no heterosis) with the others passing gives 'mixed'. If either Dryad archive cannot be downloaded, that dataset is recorded as unavailable and the verdict rests on the other; if neither can be obtained, the verdict is 'inconclusive' with reason 'data-unavailable'. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Bear litter sizes are counts (1-3) observed in the field; detection delay and maternal age are confounders that the simple regression does not model (the source paper fits mixed models with these covariates). https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst In the fly experiment 'distinct variety' is another inbred laboratory population of the same species, not a distinct variety in Darwin's sense; heterosis there reflects complementation of different fixed deleterious alleles. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst The clause attributing the decline of hybrids over generations to close interbreeding is not tested. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst The pre-registered bear test is marginal (one-sided p = 0.044, n = 66 litters); the litter's own inbreeding coefficient gives a clearer signal (p = 0.001). In the fly data the N = 40 treatment was not less fecund than the N = 500 control, so inbreeding depression in fecundity appears only at the two smallest population sizes, although fecundity declines significantly with the estimated inbreeding coefficient overall. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst The pre-registered bear test uses the mother's inbreeding coefficient; the litter's own coefficient (closeness of the parents) is the more literal reading of 'close interbreeding' and is reported as an extra. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Two datasets only (one wild mammal population of a few dozen mothers; one laboratory Drosophila experiment); Darwin's claim is about plants and animals generally. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation Dataset 1 (Auclair et al. 2025, Pyrenean brown bear, Dryad doi:10.5061/dryad.w9ghx3g1s, file litter_size_dt.csv): the slope of litter size on maternal inbreeding coefficient (ordinary least squares, one row per litter; if the file supplies repeated mothers, a mother-level mean is also reported) is negative with one-sided p < 0.05, or, if the coefficient is categorical, mean litter size of the most inbred category is below that of the least inbred with p < 0.05. Dataset 2 (Pekkala et al. 2014, Drosophila littoralis, Dryad doi:10.5061/dryad.10154): (a) mean fecundity of inbred populations is below the outbred control in at least two of the three population-size treatments (N = 2, 10, 40), and (b) mean fecundity of inter-population crosses exceeds that of within-population matings (heterosis > 0) in a majority of population pairs or treatments for which both are reported. Verdict 'supports' if dataset 1 passes and both 2(a) and 2(b) pass; 'mixed' if dataset 1 passes but only one of 2(a)/2(b), or dataset 1 fails while both 2(a) and 2(b) pass; 'refutes' if litter size does not decline with inbreeding and inbred fecundity is not below control. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion Refuted if the litter-size slope on inbreeding is >= 0 (or not significantly negative) and inbred Drosophila populations are not less fecund than the outbred control. Clause (ii)(b) failing alone (no heterosis) with the others passing gives 'mixed'. If either Dryad archive cannot be downloaded, that dataset is recorded as unavailable and the verdict rests on the other; if neither can be obtained, the verdict is 'inconclusive' with reason 'data-unavailable'. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence 0.65 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test--dataset-2 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict supports https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis If close interbreeding lessens fertility and an occasional cross with a distinct stock increases it, then (i) in a pedigreed wild mammal population, litter size should decline with the mother's inbreeding coefficient, and (ii) in experimentally inbred Drosophila populations, fecundity should be lower than in the outbred control and should rise again when individuals from different inbred populations are crossed (heterosis). https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod Bear: ordinary least-squares regression of litter size on the mother's pedigree inbreeding coefficient over 66 litters (29 mothers), one-sided test for a negative slope; the litter's own inbreeding coefficient and mother-level means are reported as extras. Fly: the DATA sheet of the Dryad workbook was parsed; offspring fecundity ('F eggs per vial') of within-population random crosses (type 1) in the inbred treatments was compared with the outbred control, and inter-population crosses (type 2) were compared with within-population crosses in each population-size x generation cell (relative heterosis), plus a pooled one-sided Mann-Whitney test. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion Dataset 1 (Auclair et al. 2025, Pyrenean brown bear, Dryad doi:10.5061/dryad.w9ghx3g1s, file litter_size_dt.csv): the slope of litter size on maternal inbreeding coefficient (ordinary least squares, one row per litter; if the file supplies repeated mothers, a mother-level mean is also reported) is negative with one-sided p < 0.05, or, if the coefficient is categorical, mean litter size of the most inbred category is below that of the least inbred with p < 0.05. Dataset 2 (Pekkala et al. 2014, Drosophila littoralis, Dryad doi:10.5061/dryad.10154): (a) mean fecundity of inbred populations is below the outbred control in at least two of the three population-size treatments (N = 2, 10, 40), and (b) mean fecundity of inter-population crosses exceeds that of within-population matings (heterosis > 0) in a majority of population pairs or treatments for which both are reported. Verdict 'supports' if dataset 1 passes and both 2(a) and 2(b) pass; 'mixed' if dataset 1 passes but only one of 2(a)/2(b), or dataset 1 fails while both 2(a) and 2(b) pass; 'refutes' if litter size does not decline with inbreeding and inbred fecundity is not below control. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/preregistered false https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/claim/darwin1859-ch08-02 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasAssessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test--dataset-1 http://purl.org/dc/terms/description litter size and pedigree inbreeding coefficients of mother and litter https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test--dataset-1 http://purl.org/dc/terms/license CC0 1.0 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Dataset: Data from: Inbreeding depression across multiple life history traits in a long-lived mammal (Pyrenean brown bear), file litter_size_dt.csv https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation https://datadryad.org/api/v2/versions/402719/download https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasDerivedFrom https://datadryad.org/dataset/doi:10.5061/dryad.w9ghx3g1s https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasChecksum sha256:790af2d98ca5956b64ca446fb1009840a2d8d0baaa3a0d9ec7e7ccd9c0e70fdd https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test--dataset-2 http://purl.org/dc/terms/description offspring fecundity for within-population, inter-population and full-sib crosses at three population sizes https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test--dataset-2 http://purl.org/dc/terms/license CC0 1.0 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test--dataset-2 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test--dataset-2 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Dataset: Data from: The effect of inbreeding rate on fitness, inbreeding depression and heterosis over a range of inbreeding coefficients (Drosophila littoralis) https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test--dataset-2 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation https://datadryad.org/api/v2/versions/6545/download https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test--dataset-2 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasDerivedFrom https://datadryad.org/dataset/doi:10.5061/dryad.10154 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch08-02--claim-test--dataset-2 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasChecksum sha256:9a2d5e912742fdd6e8180f9ab3fad2cbc8a92fa7ae5660e49d8fe0c5bf99c183 https://w3id.org/np/RAjXPyYHEnSFVDpXuT1AkaNPH7RfIPIHdVsxM94ArU7eM/provenance https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#SoftwareAgent https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label delphisci claim tester (claude-fable-5.1; 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