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(20 taxa: 12 teleosts, 5 elasmobranchs, 3 scyphozoan jellyfish), fits log10 W = a + b1 x + b2 x^2 (x = log10 L) by weighted least squares on class means (exact individual-level OLS since all fish in a class share L), tests it against the cube law (b1 = 3, b2 = 0) by F-test, and computes the ratio of fitted k = W/L^3 between its maximum and minimum over the 2.5-97.5 percentile length range; 'variable k' = P < 0.001 and ratio >= 1.10. Within-quarter fits and a fish-only count are reported as sensitivity checks; the plaice k profile by 1-cm class is the pre-registered secondary." } ], "@type": [ "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment" ], "http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment": [ { "@value": "Measured: 0.7 fraction of eligible taxa (14 of 20) in which k = W/L^3 varies by >= 10% across the growing range and the cube law is rejected at P < 0.001 (n = 20, exactly at the pre-registered 70% threshold; fish only (17 taxa, jellyfish excluded): 11/17 = 0.647; within-quarter fits: 21 of 30 variable). Interpretation: The first half of the claim (W = k L^3 for an animal of fixed form and density) is geometry and is not tested. The empirical content is Thompson's expectation that k 'is by no means constant' while growth continues, because form keeps changing; the 10% threshold is the amount of k variation that would be clearly visible on his Fig. 21 (plaice k rises about 15% from small fish to the 30-cm maximum). Changes of k can also come from density, gut fullness or gonad state rather than shape (assessors' caveat); the test cannot separate these, so a supporting result shows that k varies, not that form is the reason. Pooling years and quarters mixes seasonal condition cycles into the k-vs-length relation; the analysis therefore also reports results within each quarter as a robustness check (pre-registered, not part of the verdict). Length conversion: LngtCode '1' means LngtClass in cm; '.' or '0' means mm. A single probe request (NS-IBTS 2019 Q1 CA, HTTP status and first record only) was made before this pre-registration to confirm that the web service is reachable." } ], "http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label": [ { "@value": "Claim test of thompson1917-ch02-01: supports, confidence 0.55" } ], "http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso": [ { "@id": "https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/thompson-growth-form/thompson1917-ch02-01/result.json" } ], "http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1-thinking-high" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets": [ { "@value": "Planned datasets: ices-datras-ns-ibts-ca-hh" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType": [ { "@value": "claim-test/0.1.0" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind": [ { "@value": "biological" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation": [ { "@value": "Pre-registered (claim refuted). At most 30% of eligible species have variable k (k is effectively constant across the growing range in most fishes, contrary to Thompson's expectation). Between 30% and 70% is 'mixed'. If fewer than 10 species are eligible the verdict is 'inconclusive' (data-unavailable)." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst": [ { "@value": "A varying k is consistent with, but does not demonstrate, a change of form: condition, gut fullness, gonad state and ontogenetic changes in density or fat content also change W at fixed L (assessors' caveat). The test therefore addresses Thompson's empirical expectation that k will be found to vary, not his inference about form." }, { "@value": "Eutrigla appears twice (species-level and genus-level records); neither set has variable k (the genus-level set is the only taxon in which the cube law is not even rejected), so merging them would give 14/19 = 0.74." }, { "@value": "Lengths are 1-cm (or coarser) classes, weights are from survey scales at sea (whole-gram or coarser), sexes and years are pooled, and fish are treated as independent; the F-test P-values are therefore nominal. The 10% k-range threshold, not the P-value, is what separates taxa here." }, { "@value": "The result sits exactly on the pre-registered threshold (14/20 = 70.0%), so the verdict is fragile: excluding the three jellyfish taxa (bell diameter is not a fish length, though they are 'other growing animals' within the claim's scope) gives 11/17 = 65% and the verdict would be 'mixed'. The robust findings are weaker than the verdict label: the cube law is rejected statistically in 19 of 20 taxa (huge samples make any departure significant), the median exponent b is 3.07 (range 2.35-3.38), but only 9 of 20 taxa have |b - 3| > 0.1, and k varies by >= 10% across the central 95% of lengths in 14. So k is 'by no means constant' in a majority, but in a sizeable minority of fishes (plaice, dab, grey gurnard, starry ray, starry smooth-hound) it is constant to within 5-10% across a 3-fold length range." }, { "@value": "Thompson's specific plaice observation (k rising to a maximum near 30 cm and then declining) is not reproduced: in 54,375 North Sea plaice k is lowest at 5-10 cm (0.90) and at 20-25 cm (0.91) and rises monotonically to 1.01 at 45-50 cm, with no decline at large sizes; the overall exponent is 3.02 and k varies by only 5% between 13.5 and 40.5 cm. His 1909 data were from one locality and season; the pooled survey sample mixes seasons (Q1 spawning condition is about 10% lower than Q3, see claim ch03-18) and areas, which could flatten or shift a peak. Within-quarter fits were still 'variable k' in 21 of 30 species-quarter combinations." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation": [ { "@value": "Pre-registered (claim supported). In ICES NS-IBTS CA records (Q1 and Q3, 2015-2024, individual weights, CANoAtLngt = 1), for every species with at least 500 weighed fish whose 97.5th-percentile length is at least 3 times its 2.5th-percentile length, fit log10 W = a + b1 log10 L + b2 (log10 L)^2 after dropping fish with |residual| > 0.5 log10 units from a preliminary linear fit (pre-registered cleaning). A species has 'variable k' if (i) an F-test rejects the cube law (model with b1 = 3, b2 = 0) at P < 0.001 and (ii) the fitted k = W / L^3 varies by at least 10% (max/min >= 1.10) across the species' 2.5th-97.5th percentile length range. The claim is supported if at least 70% of eligible species have variable k. Secondary, descriptive: in plaice, the 1-cm-bin mean of k is maximal somewhere between 20 and 40 cm and is lower at both smaller and larger lengths." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion": [ { "@value": "Pre-registered (claim refuted). At most 30% of eligible species have variable k (k is effectively constant across the growing range in most fishes, contrary to Thompson's expectation). Between 30% and 70% is 'mixed'. If fewer than 10 species are eligible the verdict is 'inconclusive' (data-unavailable)." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence": [ { "@value": "0.55", "@type": "http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#double" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch02-01--claim-test--dataset-1" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict": [ { "@value": "supports" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis": [ { "@value": "Weight scales as the cube of length (W = k L^3) only while form and density are unchanged, and Thompson expects form to keep changing as long as growth continues; so in real growing fishes k = W / L^3 should NOT be constant across the size range: it should vary systematically with length in most species (in plaice, by his Fig. 21, rising to a maximum near 30 cm and then declining)." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod": [ { "@value": "The download and derivation are shared with claim ch03-18 (../thompson1917-ch03-18/fetch.py; fetch.py here delegates to it): per species a preliminary OLS of log10 W on log10 L drops 258 fish with |residual| > 0.5 (pre-registered), then fish are binned per species x quarter x 1-cm length class with n, sum and sum of squares of log10 W (derived/ns_ibts_lw_bins.csv). analysis.py keeps taxa with >= 500 fish and a 97.5th/2.5th percentile length ratio >= 3 (20 taxa: 12 teleosts, 5 elasmobranchs, 3 scyphozoan jellyfish), fits log10 W = a + b1 x + b2 x^2 (x = log10 L) by weighted least squares on class means (exact individual-level OLS since all fish in a class share L), tests it against the cube law (b1 = 3, b2 = 0) by F-test, and computes the ratio of fitted k = W/L^3 between its maximum and minimum over the 2.5-97.5 percentile length range; 'variable k' = P < 0.001 and ratio >= 1.10. Within-quarter fits and a fish-only count are reported as sensitivity checks; the plaice k profile by 1-cm class is the pre-registered secondary." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion": [ { "@value": "Pre-registered (claim supported). In ICES NS-IBTS CA records (Q1 and Q3, 2015-2024, individual weights, CANoAtLngt = 1), for every species with at least 500 weighed fish whose 97.5th-percentile length is at least 3 times its 2.5th-percentile length, fit log10 W = a + b1 log10 L + b2 (log10 L)^2 after dropping fish with |residual| > 0.5 log10 units from a preliminary linear fit (pre-registered cleaning). A species has 'variable k' if (i) an F-test rejects the cube law (model with b1 = 3, b2 = 0) at P < 0.001 and (ii) the fitted k = W / L^3 varies by at least 10% (max/min >= 1.10) across the species' 2.5th-97.5th percentile length range. The claim is supported if at least 70% of eligible species have variable k. 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