https://w3id.org/np/RA_Um5_4IyXzGK3t8jWKcYfv4_w7LTQfyUCsAhmSRahBU
.trig | .trig.txt | .jelly | .jelly.txt | .jsonld | .jsonld.txt | .nq | .nq.txt | .xml | .xml.txt
@prefix this: <https://w3id.org/np/RA_Um5_4IyXzGK3t8jWKcYfv4_w7LTQfyUCsAhmSRahBU> .
@prefix sub: <https://w3id.org/np/RA_Um5_4IyXzGK3t8jWKcYfv4_w7LTQfyUCsAhmSRahBU/> .
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@prefix dc: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
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sub:Head {
this: a np:Nanopublication;
np:hasAssertion sub:assertion;
np:hasProvenance sub:provenance;
np:hasPublicationInfo sub:pubinfo .
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sub:assertion {
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha08-21--claim-test> a <https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment>;
dc:description "analysis.py resolves Grus grus through the GBIF species match, then requests occurrence counts with limit 0, hasCoordinate true, and the pre-registered month and coordinate ranges. Fossil specimens are counted separately with basisOfRecord FOSSIL_SPECIMEN and subtracted. A country facet on the Blue Nile winter query is recorded and is not part of the pass rule.";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment> "Measured: 12149 winter occurrences in the two Nile-source boxes combined (n = 2557022). Interpretation: Aristotle's cranes that leave the Scythian steppes for the marshlands south of Egypt, where the Nile has its source, are the common crane Grus grus. The pygmy story in the same passage is not part of this claim. Scythia is the steppe north of the Black Sea, fixed here as the box above rather than a modern country. The Nile source is the White Nile and Blue Nile headwaters, not the Egyptian Nile and not the valley merely south of Egypt. Breeding and winter are the months above. An occurrence is presence, not a tracked migration path.";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "Claim test of aristotle-ha08-21: supports, confidence 0.58";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso> <https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/aristotle-biology/aristotle-ha08-21/result.json>;
prov:wasAttributedTo <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7>;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets> "GBIF occurrence counts for Grus grus with coordinates, excluding fossil specimens. The species key is taken from the GBIF match response. Country checklists and Wikipedia maps do not count. Boxes are not moved after the counts are seen.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType> "claim-test/0.1.0";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind> "biological";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation> "No breeding-month records in the Scythian box while at least 100 breeding records exist elsewhere, or fewer than 5 winter records in both source boxes while at least 100 winter records exist elsewhere.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst> "109 georeferenced records were FOSSIL_SPECIMEN and were subtracted from the total of 2557131. The count response does not state a license. The pygmy story in the same passage was not tested.",
"A country facet on the Blue Nile winter query returned 12147 for ET and no other country. The facet is not part of the pass threshold. Occurrences are records, not tracked birds, so a hotspot can contribute many rows.",
"Both pre-registered clauses pass. May–July records in the Scythian box are 5815. Winter records in the two source boxes combined are 12149, of which 12147 are in the Blue Nile box and 2 are in the White Nile box.",
"The valley south of Egypt has 1092 winter records, fewer than the source boxes, so the pre-registered mixed case (valley rather than source) does not apply. 610960 breeding-month records fall outside the Scythian box; the claim does not say cranes breed only there.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation> "At least 30 georeferenced Grus grus in the Scythian box in May to July, and at least 30 in the two Nile-source boxes combined in November to February.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion> "Pre-registered. Breeding fails if the Scythian box has zero breeding-month records and at least 100 breeding-month records exist outside it. Winter-at-source fails if the two source boxes combined have fewer than 5 winter records and at least 100 winter records exist outside them. Both failed clauses refute the claim. If breeding passes and winter-at-source fails, the claim is mixed, including when the Nile-valley box south of Egypt (latitude 10 to 22, longitude 30 to 36) holds the winter records: that box is south of Egypt and is not the source. If the total of georeferenced non-fossil Grus grus records is under 30, the verdict is inconclusive with reason underpowered. If the API does not return counts, reason data-unavailable. A count between the pass and fail lines leaves that clause unscored, and one pass with an unscored clause is mixed.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence> "0.58"^^xsd:double;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence> <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha08-21--claim-test--dataset-1>;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict> "supports";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis> "If the claim holds, georeferenced common cranes occur on the Scythian steppe in the breeding months and in the marshes at the Nile source in the winter months.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod> "Each box is a GBIF occurrence search with limit 0, so the count field is the measurement. Supports requires both passes. Both fails refute. Breeding supported and source winter not supported is mixed. Fewer than 30 georeferenced records in total is inconclusive, underpowered.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion> "Pre-registered. Species is Grus grus, resolved at runtime from GBIF species match, not a hardcoded key. Records must have hasCoordinate true and basisOfRecord other than FOSSIL_SPECIMEN. Breeding months are May, June and July. Winter months are November, December, January and February. Scythian steppe is latitude 45 to 53 and longitude 28 to 60. Nile-source boxes are the White Nile, Sudd and Lake Victoria, latitude -3 to 10 and longitude 29 to 36, and the Blue Nile and Lake Tana, latitude 10.5 to 13.5 and longitude 36.5 to 38.5. The claim passes only if the Scythian box has at least 30 records in the breeding months and the two source boxes combined have at least 30 records in the winter months.";
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dc:description "Georeferenced occurrence counts inside the pre-registered boxes. Count responses are small; raw occurrence records were not downloaded.";
dc:license "not stated on the occurrence count response";
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<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "delphisci claim tester (grok-4.7; cursor/aristotle-anatomy-a-3db5)";
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sub:pubinfo {
this: dc:created "2026-11-08T16:24:31.781Z"^^xsd:dateTime;
dc:creator <https://orcid.org/0009-0007-4948-9192>;
dc:license <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/>;
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