https://w3id.org/np/RA_BJo6iq63m8ior0jIsjJo5VlJO-h1v9lELY-GzMpXvg
.trig | .trig.txt | .jelly | .jelly.txt | .jsonld | .jsonld.txt | .nq | .nq.txt | .xml | .xml.txt
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@prefix sub: <https://w3id.org/np/RA_BJo6iq63m8ior0jIsjJo5VlJO-h1v9lELY-GzMpXvg/> .
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@prefix dc: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
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sub:Head {
this: a np:Nanopublication;
np:hasAssertion sub:assertion;
np:hasProvenance sub:provenance;
np:hasPublicationInfo sub:pubinfo .
}
sub:assertion {
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-09--claim-test> a <https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment>;
dc:description "The 2023 final-births PDF on www.cdc.gov returned an error, so live births were counted in the 2024 US natality public-use file from ftp.cdc.gov. Each record's obstetric estimate of gestation (user-guide positions 499-500, values 17-47) was assigned to a lunar month by floor(week/4 + 1/2). Shares use births in weeks 26-45. Combined gestation (positions 490-491) and a calendar month of 30.437 days are reported and do not set the verdict. AnAge was opened and has one gestation number per species, so it is not a within-species series. The PanTHERIA and amniote DOIs and the Dryad meerkat pregnancy file did not return a usable table.";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment> "Measured: 0.7689923769954404 share of US live births in completed weeks 26-45 whose obstetric estimate falls in lunar month 10 (weeks 38-41) (n = 3619439, not stated obstetric estimate excluded; counts are the full 2024 US file, not a sample). Interpretation: The sentence has two clauses: every other animal has one fixed term of pregnancy, and humans alone vary across seven, eight, nine and, most commonly, ten months, with a few pregnancies entering the eleventh. The test does not add a modern claim about preterm survival or about why the length varies. The month is the lunar month of 28 days. Ten such months are 280 days, which is 40 weeks, and that is the ordinary term the text calls ten months. Completed obstetric week w is lunar month floor(w/4 + 1/2), so halves round away from zero: weeks 26–29, 30–33, 34–37, 38–41 and 42–45 are months 7 through 11. This map is fixed because 40/4 = 10, not from a gestational-age histogram. A calendar month of 30.437 days, with month floor(w*7/30.437 + 1/2), is computed and does not set the verdict. Births outside weeks 26–45 are counted and do not enter the five shares. 'Most commonly' compares month 10 with months 7, 8, 9 and 11. 'Some few' into the eleventh month requires that class to be present, smaller than the tenth month, and under 15 percent of weeks 26–45.";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "Claim test of aristotle-ha07-09: inconclusive, confidence 0.55";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso> <https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/aristotle-biology/aristotle-ha07-09/result.json>;
prov:wasAttributedTo <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7>;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets> "A public vital-statistics table that states birth counts by completed week of gestation for a defined population, with no login. Prefer the live-birth distribution; if the report gives only one distribution, use that one and name it. For other animals, a public table of individual gestations or an explicit within-species minimum and maximum from at least five pregnancies. One gestation number per species, including a mean with no spread, cannot support or refute the fixed-term clause. Datasets that fail to resolve are dropped.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType> "claim-test/0.1.0";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind> "biological";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation> "Month 10 is not the largest of months 7–11, or one of months 7, 8 or 9 is under 0.5 percent, or the eleventh month is missing, is at least 15 percent, or is at least as large as the tenth. Separately, a non-human species with at least five measured pregnancies whose longest and shortest differ by 28 days or more shows that a fixed term is not true of every other animal.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst> "A modern national registry is not a sample of the animals Aristotle could see. It can test the stated durations. It cannot show that every non-human species has one term unless the within-species series says so.",
"A range under 14 days in a finite species list would not prove the universal 'every other animal'. The support rule requires that measured list to be fixed, and the caveat remains.",
"Lunar month 10 is the most common of months 7 through 11, and months 7, 8, 9 and 11 occur at the pre-registered rates. No within-species gestation series could be read, so the fixed-term clause for other animals was not measured.",
"Month 10 holding in this file does not show that every other animal has one fixed term. That clause was not measured.",
"No gestational-age count, week histogram, or within-species gestation file was opened before this registration. The PDF URL is the NCHS final-births report named in the catalog; only its existence as a report title was known.",
"The calendar-month mode is a sensitivity. It is not the pre-registered reading.",
"The human clause uses one country's 2024 live births and the obstetric estimate. It does not reconstruct how a fourth-century observer counted months.",
"The lunar-month bins are a reading of 'ten months' as 280 days. They are not a claim that Aristotle stated week numbers.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation> "In a public table of human births by completed week, lunar month 10 contains more births than month 7, month 8, month 9 or month 11; months 7, 8 and 9 are each at least 0.5 percent of births in weeks 26–45; month 11 is at least 0.1 percent, under 15 percent, and smaller than month 10. In a within-species gestation series, each non-human species with at least five pregnancies has a range under 14 days.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion> "Pre-registered. The verdict is refutes if the human week table can be assigned to these months, the week-26–45 total is at least 100000, and the human clause fails: month 10 is not strictly the largest of months 7–11, or any of months 7, 8 or 9 has share under 0.005, or month 11 has share under 0.001 or at least 0.15 or at least as large as month 10. Animal measurements are reported and do not overturn a failed human clause. The verdict is mixed if the human clause holds and at least one admissible non-human species with at least 5 pregnancies has maximum minus minimum gestation of at least 28 days. The verdict is inconclusive with reason data-unavailable if no public week table can be read, or the table does not distinguish the five week groups 26–29, 30–33, 34–37, 38–41 and 42–45. The verdict is inconclusive with reason underpowered if that total is under 100000, or the human clause holds but every admissible species falls in the unresolved band (range at least 14 and under 28 days, or fewer than 5 pregnancies). The verdict is inconclusive with reason other if the human clause holds and no admissible within-species series is obtained, because the fixed-term clause was then not measured. A one-number-per-species gestation table is not admissible and cannot move the verdict off this rule.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence> "0.55"^^xsd:double;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence> <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-09--claim-test--dataset-1>,
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-09--claim-test--dataset-2>;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict> "inconclusive";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis> "In a national table of human births by completed week, the lunar month with the most births, among months seven through eleven, is the tenth, and months seven, eight, nine and eleven also occur, with the eleventh a small class. Separately, non-human species with several measured pregnancies each have one term, not a spread of a month or more.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod> "Assign each completed week w to lunar month floor(w/4 + 1/2). Shares use the sum of births in weeks 26–45 as the denominator. Apply pass_criterion and fail_criterion in that order: a failed human clause with at least 100000 such births is refutes; a held human clause plus one non-human species with range at least 28 days and n at least 5 is mixed; a held human clause plus at least 10 species each with n at least 5 and range under 14 days is supports; otherwise inconclusive with the reason named in fail_criterion. The calendar-month mode is reported and does not change the verdict. Confidence, fixed before the counts: 0.55 if inconclusive; 0.85 if refutes and month 10's share trails the leader, or leads, by at least 0.05 of the denominator, else 0.70 if refutes; 0.75 if mixed; 0.60 if supports. Cap 0.90.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion> "Pre-registered (supports). Both clauses hold. Human clause: among live births, or all births if the table does not separate them, in completed weeks 26 through 45, lunar month 10 (weeks 38–41) has a strictly larger count than each of months 7 (weeks 26–29), 8 (weeks 30–33), 9 (weeks 34–37) and 11 (weeks 42–45); months 7, 8 and 9 each have a share of at least 0.005 of births in weeks 26–45; month 11 has a share of at least 0.001, strictly below month 10, and below 0.15. The week-26–45 total is at least 100000. Animal clause: an admissible within-species series covers at least 10 non-human species with at least 5 pregnancies each, and every such species has maximum minus minimum gestation under 14 days.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/preregistered> "false"^^xsd:boolean .
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/claim/aristotle-ha07-09> <https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasAssessment>
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-09--claim-test> .
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-09--claim-test--dataset-1>
a <https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem>;
dc:description "live births by completed week, obstetric estimate at positions 499-500";
dc:license "US government public-use vital statistics file";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "Dataset: NCHS Natality public-use file, United States, 2024";
prov:atLocation <https://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/Datasets/DVS/natality/Nat2024us.zip>;
prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/Datasets/DVS/natality/>;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasChecksum> "sha256:8ce1c61bc055b3327311985f918db5387ea6a1ed7d34b367afe30f468b92225a" .
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-09--claim-test--dataset-2>
a <https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem>;
dc:description "checked and dropped: one gestation number per species, not a within-species series";
dc:license "AnAge terms on genomics.senescence.info; one row per species";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "Dataset: AnAge build 15";
prov:atLocation <https://genomics.senescence.info/species/dataset.zip>;
prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://genomics.senescence.info/species/>;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasChecksum> "sha256:e3ddb66e32e973a79932859ba53013e8f60d957c6ec01c6eb573e3ea3018d630" .
}
sub:provenance {
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7> a prov:SoftwareAgent;
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "delphisci claim tester (Grok 4.7; cursor/aristotle-claim-tests-3f12)";
prov:actedOnBehalfOf <https://orcid.org/0009-0007-4948-9192>;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/usesModel> <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/model/grok-4-7> .
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/model/grok-4-7> a <https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/LanguageModel>;
dc:identifier "Grok 4.7" .
sub:assertion prov:wasAttributedTo <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7>;
prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/aristotle-biology/aristotle-ha07-09/result.json>;
prov:wasGeneratedBy sub:test .
sub:plan prov:hadPlan <https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/README.md> .
sub:test a prov:Activity;
prov:qualifiedAssociation sub:plan;
prov:wasAssociatedWith <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7> .
}
sub:pubinfo {
this: dc:created "2026-11-08T16:24:31.776Z"^^xsd:dateTime;
dc:creator <https://orcid.org/0009-0007-4948-9192>;
dc:license <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/>;
npx:hasNanopubType <https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment>;
npx:introduces <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-09--claim-test>;
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "Claim test of aristotle-ha07-09: inconclusive, confidence 0.55";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/domain> <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/domain/aristotle-biology> .
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