https://w3id.org/np/RA_6qbflOFrWthd5GyeoY7Lsd11nV8A5Uerl-LrnV8jhI/Head https://w3id.org/np/RA_6qbflOFrWthd5GyeoY7Lsd11nV8A5Uerl-LrnV8jhI http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion https://w3id.org/np/RA_6qbflOFrWthd5GyeoY7Lsd11nV8A5Uerl-LrnV8jhI/assertion https://w3id.org/np/RA_6qbflOFrWthd5GyeoY7Lsd11nV8A5Uerl-LrnV8jhI http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasProvenance https://w3id.org/np/RA_6qbflOFrWthd5GyeoY7Lsd11nV8A5Uerl-LrnV8jhI/provenance https://w3id.org/np/RA_6qbflOFrWthd5GyeoY7Lsd11nV8A5Uerl-LrnV8jhI http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasPublicationInfo https://w3id.org/np/RA_6qbflOFrWthd5GyeoY7Lsd11nV8A5Uerl-LrnV8jhI/pubinfo https://w3id.org/np/RA_6qbflOFrWthd5GyeoY7Lsd11nV8A5Uerl-LrnV8jhI http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#Nanopublication https://w3id.org/np/RA_6qbflOFrWthd5GyeoY7Lsd11nV8A5Uerl-LrnV8jhI/assertion https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-01--claim-test http://purl.org/dc/terms/description Downloaded the Dryad workbook and selected the sheet whose header row names a linear selection gradient. The gradient column is the best-scoring standardized header (or any linear-gradient header when the sheet text says the estimates are standardized); quadratic, gamma and differential columns are excluded. Standard errors are the SE column whose header names the gradient, or the SE column immediately to its right. Non-numeric gradients and |β| > 10 were dropped. The median |β|, the fraction |β| ≥ 0.05 and, when at least 100 standard errors are present, the fraction |β|/SE ≥ 1.96 were compared with the pre-registered thresholds. No subsample was taken. Signs were not interpreted. Study-level medians are a sensitivity only. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-01--claim-test http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-01--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment Measured: 0.15 median absolute standardized linear selection gradient (n = 995, bootstrap 95% CI for the median [0.1390, 0.1610] (2000 resamples, seed 20261102)). Interpretation: Darwin's sentence has three clauses: (1) more individuals are born than can survive, (2) any slight advantage is preserved, which is natural selection, and (3) injurious variations are eliminated. This test operationalizes only clause (2), and only as 'selection on phenotypes exists and is often nonzero'. A standardized linear selection gradient β is the regression of relative fitness on a trait in standard-deviation units; |β| is used because the sign of β depends on how the trait was coded and is not an independent label of favourable versus injurious. Clause (1), the birth surplus, is not tested: a selection gradient does not record offspring number against replacement, and COMPADRE/COMADRE are not opened. Clause (3), elimination of injurious variations, is not tested: the compilation has no classification of variants as injurious that is independent of the fitness regression itself. The compilation is published estimates from mostly morphological traits in a few dozen species (1984–1997 literature), so a pass is a narrower test than 'all organisms in nature'. The 2015 Dryad file is admissible only if the 2001 workbook cannot be fetched or has no standardized linear-gradient column, and then the test is further narrowed to body size. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-01--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Claim test of darwin1859-ch04-01: supports, confidence 0.62 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-01--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/darwin-origin/darwin1859-ch04-01/result.json https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-01--claim-test http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-01--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets A public compilation of standardized linear selection gradients (or differentials only if no gradient column exists — differentials are then not used; the test stops as not-operationalizable) measured on phenotypes in natural populations, with a downloadable file, a reusable licence, and one row per published estimate. Single-population studies and genomic site-frequency spectra are out of scope. The birth-surplus clause and the injurious-variant clause are outside the admissible measurements. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-01--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType claim-test/0.1.0 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-01--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind biological https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-01--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation Among at least 50 estimates, the median |β| is below 0.02, or fewer than 25% of estimates have |β| ≥ 0.05. A median above 0.10 whose estimates are almost all within 1.96 SE of zero disconfirms 'often distinguishable from no selection' and is scored mixed rather than supports. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-01--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst A selection-gradient compilation does not show that more individuals are born than can survive, and it has no label of injurious variants independent of the fitness regression. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-01--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst A supports verdict is only for the selection clause. It does not establish Darwin's full sentence. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-01--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Column names in the workbook are Grad.linear.value and Grad.linear.StErr. Those abbreviations were matched to linear gradient and its standard error after the file was opened. Quadratic (Grad.quad) and differential (Diff) columns were excluded. Thresholds were not changed. The Dryad abstract states that the tabulated estimates are standardized selection gradients. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-01--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Estimates from the same study are not independent. The verdict uses estimates, as pre-registered; the study-level median of medians is a sensitivity and did not change the rule. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-01--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Only the clause that phenotypic selection is often nonzero was scored. The birth surplus and the elimination of injurious variations were not measured. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-01--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Scope is the studies inside this compilation, not all organisms in nature. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-01--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst The Dryad abstract of this compilation states an overall median absolute linear gradient of 0.16. The measured median is the script's median of numeric Grad.linear.value rows and was not adjusted toward that sentence. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-01--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst The sign of β depends on trait coding and was not read as favourable versus injurious. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-01--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst The unit is a published estimate. Studies that found selection are more likely to be published, so the distribution is not a sample of unstudied populations. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-01--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation The median absolute standardized linear selection gradient is at least 0.10, at least 60% of estimates have |β| ≥ 0.05, and, when standard errors exist for at least 100 estimates, at least 20% satisfy |β|/SE ≥ 1.96. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-01--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion Pre-registered. REFUTES the selection clause if n ≥ 50 and either median |β| < 0.02 or the fraction with |β| ≥ 0.05 is < 0.25. If the magnitude criteria for SUPPORTS hold but (iv) applies and the detectable fraction is < 0.20, the verdict is mixed (point estimates look nonzero, most are not distinguishable from error). Any other usable outcome is mixed. If n < 50, or no standardized linear-gradient column can be identified from its header, the verdict is inconclusive (underpowered or not-operationalizable). If the file cannot be fetched, inconclusive with reason data-unavailable. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-01--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence 0.62 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-01--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch04-01--claim-test--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-01--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict supports https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-01--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis In natural populations, phenotypic selection on measured traits is often nonzero: the absolute values of standardized linear selection gradients are typically at least weak, and a substantial share are distinguishable from sampling error. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-01--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod Identify the gradient column from the header before using any value (regex: linear gradient / beta, excluding quadratic, gamma and differential). Exclude non-numeric cells and |β| > 10. Compare the median |β|, the fraction |β| ≥ 0.05, and the fraction |β|/SE ≥ 1.96 to the thresholds above. Estimate-level, not study-level, is the pre-registered unit; a study-level median of medians is reported only as a sensitivity and cannot change the verdict. No subsample. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-01--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion Pre-registered, and it scores only the selection clause. Using every numeric standardized linear selection gradient β in the Kingsolver et al. 2001 Dryad compilation (fallback: the 2015 body-size KD database, labelled narrower), after dropping non-numeric values and |β| > 10: SUPPORTS if (i) n ≥ 200, (ii) median |β| ≥ 0.10, (iii) the fraction with |β| ≥ 0.05 is ≥ 0.60, and (iv) if at least 100 estimates have a paired standard error, the fraction with |β|/SE ≥ 1.96 is ≥ 0.20. If fewer than 100 estimates have an SE, (iv) is not applied. 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