https://w3id.org/np/RAN3TmB2ukc3k_Ak9gtHrZ6nzYMEz12cl6-jRaoSmnuE4/Head https://w3id.org/np/RAN3TmB2ukc3k_Ak9gtHrZ6nzYMEz12cl6-jRaoSmnuE4 http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion https://w3id.org/np/RAN3TmB2ukc3k_Ak9gtHrZ6nzYMEz12cl6-jRaoSmnuE4/assertion https://w3id.org/np/RAN3TmB2ukc3k_Ak9gtHrZ6nzYMEz12cl6-jRaoSmnuE4 http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasProvenance https://w3id.org/np/RAN3TmB2ukc3k_Ak9gtHrZ6nzYMEz12cl6-jRaoSmnuE4/provenance https://w3id.org/np/RAN3TmB2ukc3k_Ak9gtHrZ6nzYMEz12cl6-jRaoSmnuE4 http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasPublicationInfo https://w3id.org/np/RAN3TmB2ukc3k_Ak9gtHrZ6nzYMEz12cl6-jRaoSmnuE4/pubinfo https://w3id.org/np/RAN3TmB2ukc3k_Ak9gtHrZ6nzYMEz12cl6-jRaoSmnuE4 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#Nanopublication https://w3id.org/np/RAN3TmB2ukc3k_Ak9gtHrZ6nzYMEz12cl6-jRaoSmnuE4/assertion https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha06-08--claim-test http://purl.org/dc/terms/description Downloaded the AnAge build 15 zip, checked SHA-256 and byte size, and read anage_data.txt. Among rows with Class Aves and Female maturity (days) > 0, p is the share under 365 days. Male maturity and the earliest of the two sexes are reported and do not set the verdict. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha06-08--claim-test http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha06-08--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment Measured: 0.11458333333333333 share of bird species with female maturity under 365 days (n = 864). Interpretation: Propagate within their first year is read as female age at sexual maturity under 365 days. AnAge records maturity, not the age of the first successful clutch in the wild; that mapping is stated here and is not changed if the proportion is high or low. The scope is birds generally, so the denominator is every AnAge bird with the field filled, not a subset of large birds. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha06-08--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Claim test of aristotle-ha06-08: mixed, confidence 0.5 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha06-08--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/aristotle-biology/aristotle-ha06-08/result.json https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha06-08--claim-test http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha06-08--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets A published species-level life-history table with female age at maturity in days and a class label for birds, compiled independently of Aristotle. The Amniote Life-History Database (Myhrvold et al. 2015) was the assessors' other candidate; a HEAD request to https://esapubs.org/archive/ecol/E096/269/Amniote_Database_Aug_2015.csv on 2026-11-02T00:21:31Z returned HTTP 404, so it is not an admissible file for this run. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha06-08--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType claim-test/0.1.0 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha06-08--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind biological https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha06-08--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation At least a quarter of those species have female maturity under 365 days. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha06-08--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst 426 of 864 species are coded at exactly 365.0 days. The pre-registered cut is strictly under 365 days, so those species are not counted as breeding in the first year. The share at or under 365 days is 525/864 and is not used for the verdict. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha06-08--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Age at maturity is an imperfect stand-in for age at first breeding. Captive and wild records are pooled as AnAge publishes them. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha06-08--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst AnAge female maturity mixes wild and captive records and is age at sexual maturity, not the age of the first wild clutch. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha06-08--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation Fewer than ten percent of bird species with a recorded female age at maturity mature before one year of age. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha06-08--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion Pre-registered. The claim is refuted if p >= 0.25 and the number of species is at least 80. The verdict is 'mixed' if 0.10 <= p < 0.25 with at least 80 species: more than very few, and still a minority. The verdict is 'inconclusive' with reason 'underpowered' if fewer than 80 bird species have a positive female maturity, and with reason 'data-unavailable' if the zip checksum does not match the registered SHA-256, or the class or female-maturity column cannot be identified. Very few is not defined by Aristotle; the 0.10 and 0.25 cuts are this test's reading of that phrase and were fixed before the column was opened. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha06-08--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence 0.5 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha06-08--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha06-08--claim-test--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha06-08--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict mixed https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha06-08--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis If very few birds propagate within their first year, then the share of bird species with female age at maturity under 365 days is under one tenth. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha06-08--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod Proportion of Aves rows with female maturity days in (0, 365), among rows with female maturity days > 0. 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