https://w3id.org/np/RALnmj-B9CxXwB0l1XFYmeF37-1848BSDWF4UCV6zgmH8/Head https://w3id.org/np/RALnmj-B9CxXwB0l1XFYmeF37-1848BSDWF4UCV6zgmH8 http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion https://w3id.org/np/RALnmj-B9CxXwB0l1XFYmeF37-1848BSDWF4UCV6zgmH8/assertion https://w3id.org/np/RALnmj-B9CxXwB0l1XFYmeF37-1848BSDWF4UCV6zgmH8 http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasProvenance https://w3id.org/np/RALnmj-B9CxXwB0l1XFYmeF37-1848BSDWF4UCV6zgmH8/provenance https://w3id.org/np/RALnmj-B9CxXwB0l1XFYmeF37-1848BSDWF4UCV6zgmH8 http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasPublicationInfo https://w3id.org/np/RALnmj-B9CxXwB0l1XFYmeF37-1848BSDWF4UCV6zgmH8/pubinfo https://w3id.org/np/RALnmj-B9CxXwB0l1XFYmeF37-1848BSDWF4UCV6zgmH8 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#Nanopublication https://w3id.org/np/RALnmj-B9CxXwB0l1XFYmeF37-1848BSDWF4UCV6zgmH8/assertion https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test http://purl.org/dc/terms/description Hamilton-Norwood counts were read from the male results sentence of the Europe PMC XML. Early stages are II, IIa, III, IIIa and IIIv. Temple-onset is II, IIa, III and IIIa; IIIv is vertex-only. t is temple-onset cases over early-stage cases. No listed stage is occipital, and the paper does not say the occiput is retained, so the occipital fraction was left unscored. The Jo PDF was read with pypdf. The sentence giving 60.6 percent temporal onset in men does not state how many men that percentage divides, so the greying clause is unscored. Baldness fails because t is at least 0.50, and greying does not pass, so the pre-registered conjunction refutes. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment Measured: 0.5806 fraction of men in early Hamilton-Norwood stages II, IIa, III, IIIa or IIIv who are in a temple-onset stage (II, IIa, III, IIIa) (n = 620, vertex-only IIIv is 260 of 620 early-stage men; occipital-onset fraction was not scored). Interpretation: The sentence distinguishes three sites. 'Bald on the front of the head' and 'no one goes bald first on the temples or the back' are about where hair is lost first, not the final horseshoe. Hamilton–Norwood stages past the early ones already join the front and the crown, so they are not an onset measure and are not scored. 'Turn grey first on the temples' is the first region to grey in men, not the region that is grey at interview. Women are outside the sentence. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Claim test of aristotle-ga05-11: refutes, confidence 0.61 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/aristotle-biology/aristotle-ga05-11/result.json https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets A checksummed clinical series that classifies men on a named baldness scale with stage definitions, and a checksummed series that records the first scalp region to grey in men. Encyclopaedia prose and undated recall without a region are not admissible. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType claim-test/0.1.0 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind biological https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation At least half of men in an early stage are in a temple-onset class, or at least half are in an occipital-onset class, or the temporal scalp is not the unique first site of greying in men. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Both series are Korean clinic and outpatient samples, not a census of men. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Jo and colleagues report that grey hair first appeared in the temporal area in 60.6 percent of men, against 31.0 percent temporal in women. The letter does not give the number of men in that percentage (522 men were recruited, which is not the same denominator), so the greying clause does not pass and does not fail. A share above one half would have been the unique mode had the denominator been stated. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst No stage in the sentence is an occipital-onset class, and the paper never says the back of the head is spared, so the occipital half of the baldness clause was not scored. The refutation is from the temple fraction. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst The baldness clause fails under the locked rule: 360 of 620 early-stage men (types II, IIa, III and IIIa) are in a temple-onset class, t = 0.5806, and 260 are vertex-only type IIIv. Types IV and later were excluded because they no longer show where hair was lost first. The 823 typed men plus 10 men the paper calls a female pattern sum to the paper's 833 men. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst The paper's own glossary says the letter 'a' marks advanced recession of the frontal hairline and 'vertex' marks an isolated patch on the crown. IIa and IIIa are therefore frontal in that glossary. They stay in the temple-onset set because that is the pre-registered Norwood list, and this is a reason for the modest confidence. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst These are the patterns on clinic photographs at the first visit, not a diary of the first hairs lost. Type II can already be a developed recession. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation Fewer than one in ten men in an early Hamilton–Norwood stage began at the temples or the occiput, and at least half of men, a majority, first grey at the temples. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion Baldness fails if n_b >= 50 and (t >= 0.50 or o >= 0.50). Greying fails if n_g >= 50 and the temporal region is not the unique mode. A clause with a fetched table that meets neither its pass nor its fail rule is intermediate. Supports only if both pass. Refutes if at least one clause fails and the other does not pass. Mixed if one passes and the other fails or is intermediate, or both are intermediate. Inconclusive, reason underpowered, if one clause is scored and the other table cannot be fetched. Inconclusive, reason data-unavailable, if neither table can be fetched. Inconclusive, reason not-operationalizable, if a fetched baldness table does not separate temple-onset from vertex-only early stages and does not define an occipital class. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence 0.61 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test--dataset-2 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict refutes https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis In men, patterned baldness begins on the front of the head and not on the temples or the occiput, and greying begins on the temples. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod Early-stage temple-onset fraction t and occipital-onset fraction o, with pass at t < 0.10 and o < 0.10 (n_b >= 50) and fail at t >= 0.50 or o >= 0.50. Male first-grey temporal fraction g, with pass at a unique temporal mode and g >= 0.50 (n_g >= 50) and fail when the temporal region is not the unique mode. Both clauses must pass. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion Two clauses, both required. (Baldness) Among men with androgenetic alopecia in a checksummed Hamilton–Norwood table, score only early stages, because later stages no longer show where hair was lost first. Temple-onset stages are those the source defines as frontotemporal or temporal recession (Norwood II, IIa, III, IIIa, and the same letters). Vertex-only stages (III vertex, IIIv) are not temple-onset. Occipital-onset is any stage the source defines as beginning on the back of the head; if the source defines no such stage and states that the occiput is retained, the occipital count is 0. Let n_b be the number of men in these early stages, t the temple-onset fraction and o the occipital-onset fraction. Baldness passes if n_b >= 50, t < 0.10 and o < 0.10. (Greying) Among men in a checksummed table or results statement of the first scalp region to turn grey, let n_g be the number of men and g the fraction whose first region is the temple or temporal scalp. Greying passes if n_g >= 50, the temporal region is the unique mode, and g >= 0.50. The claim passes only if both clauses pass. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/preregistered false https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/claim/aristotle-ga05-11 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasAssessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test--dataset-1 http://purl.org/dc/terms/description Male Hamilton-Norwood case counts in the results paragraph (the table image has no text cells). https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test--dataset-1 http://purl.org/dc/terms/license CC BY-NC 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/) https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Dataset: Jang WS et al. Annual changes of androgenetic alopecia in a Korean clinic, Ann Dermatol 2013;25:181-188 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC3662911/fullTextXML https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasDerivedFrom https://europepmc.org/article/PMC/PMC3662911 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasChecksum sha256:3eb5e18a7d83dfbb3ca0de655252baabc2d263217cbf36975d5c83f32067088d https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test--dataset-2 http://purl.org/dc/terms/description First scalp region to grey in men. The letter states the percentage and not the male denominator. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test--dataset-2 http://purl.org/dc/terms/license Copyright 2012 The Authors; journal compilation copyright 2012 Acta Dermato-Venereologica. No Creative Commons grant is printed on the PDF. The file is the public download of the letter. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test--dataset-2 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ga05-11--claim-test--dataset-2 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Dataset: Jo SJ et al. Hair graying pattern depends on gender, onset age and smoking habits. 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