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The first year is the year without horns. Bifurcate means two points on the antler being counted, and trifurcate means three. If the column is a total for both beams, those counts are doubled because each beam carries the same description. The later sentence about six years and the causal story that growth is diverted into horns are outside the four-year score." } ], "http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label": [ { "@value": "Claim test of aristotle-ha09-04: inconclusive, confidence 0.8" } ], "http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso": [ { "@id": "https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/aristotle-biology/aristotle-ha09-04/result.json" } ], "http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets": [ { "@value": "The two Dryad text tables named above, both under 1 MB. The pedigree, map, and GWAS files are not admissible. A blank cell is not a count of zero." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType": [ { "@value": "claim-test/0.1.0" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind": [ { "@value": "none" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation": [ { "@value": "Two or more of those four ages miss the expected count by more than 1.5 points, or the medians do not rise from the second year to the fourth." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst": [ { "@value": "Neither text file was opened before this registration. Names, sizes, and ids come from the Dryad API listing." }, { "@value": "The header rule for per-antler versus head-total is fixed here. It will not be switched after the medians are computed." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation": [ { "@value": "With at least 10 stags at each age, median and modal points follow 0 then an unbranched spike, then two points, then three, on the scale the header names, and the medians rise from the second year to the fourth." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion": [ { "@value": "Pre-registered. Refutes, confidence 0.75, if all four ages have at least 10 stags and at least two ages have a median more than 1.5 away from expected, or the medians do not strictly increase from year 2 through year 4. Mixed, confidence 0.60, if all four ages have at least 10 stags and exactly one age has a median more than 0.5 from expected while the other three match and the medians still increase. Inconclusive, reason underpowered, confidence 0.50, if the columns exist but any of the four ages has fewer than 10 stags. Inconclusive, reason data-unavailable, confidence 0.80, if neither small file has both an age column and a points column. The increase until six years and the loss of an age signal after six are reported if those ages exist and do not change the four-year verdict. The material-diverted-to-horns clause is untested." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence": [ { "@value": "0.8", "@type": "http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#double" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha09-04--claim-test--dataset-1" }, { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha09-04--claim-test--dataset-2" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict": [ { "@value": "inconclusive" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis": [ { "@value": "If the pattern holds, red-deer stags have no antler points in the first year, unbranched spikes in the second, two points in the third, and three in the fourth, and the count rises across those years. The claim that material is diverted into the horns is not scored." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod": [ { "@value": "Stags are the units after collapsing repeated rows. The per-antler versus whole-head scale is read from the column header, not from the median. The age offset is read from whether age 0 occurs. The causal clause about material going into the horns is not scored." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion": [ { "@value": "Pre-registered, before either antler file is opened. The files are Dryad doi:10.5061/dryad.612jm643c, CC0-1.0: Antler_measures_data_raw.txt (API id 1229477, 264624 bytes, https://datadryad.org/downloads/file_stream/1229477) and, only if that file has no age or points column, Antler_additional_form_data_raw.txt (API id 1229476, 154182 bytes, https://datadryad.org/downloads/file_stream/1229476). No other file in the dataset is downloaded. An age column header matches age or year. A points column header matches point, tine, or branch. If that header also matches beam, side, left, right, or per, the expected sequence for Aristotle years 1 to 4 is 0, 1, 2, 3. Otherwise the expected sequence is the head total 0, 2, 4, 6. If the age column contains 0, Aristotle year k is age k-1. If the smallest age is 1, Aristotle year k is age k. This choice uses the age codes only, not the point values. A blank point cell is missing, not zero. If an identifier column matches id, code, or animal and does not match snp, rows collapse to the mean points per identifier per age. Support, confidence 0.70, only if each of the four ages has at least 10 stags, the median is within 0.5 of the expected value, the mode of the rounded points equals the expected value, and the medians strictly increase from year 2 to year 3 to year 4." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/preregistered": [ { "@value": "false", "@type": "http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#boolean" } ] }, { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha09-04--claim-test--dataset-1", "http://purl.org/dc/terms/description": [ { "@value": "antler points by age in red deer" } ], "http://purl.org/dc/terms/license": [ { "@value": "CC0-1.0" } ], "@type": [ "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem" ], "http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label": [ { "@value": "Dataset: Antler_measures_data_raw.txt" } ], "http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation": [ { "@id": "https://datadryad.org/downloads/file_stream/1229477" } ], "http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasDerivedFrom": [ { "@id": 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