[ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/np/RAJstnIeKD4ltnNRh_VG9vTA24LUopSYd0yyQ0vUuYJ_w/Head", "@graph": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/np/RAJstnIeKD4ltnNRh_VG9vTA24LUopSYd0yyQ0vUuYJ_w", "http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/np/RAJstnIeKD4ltnNRh_VG9vTA24LUopSYd0yyQ0vUuYJ_w/assertion" } ], "http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasProvenance": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/np/RAJstnIeKD4ltnNRh_VG9vTA24LUopSYd0yyQ0vUuYJ_w/provenance" } ], "http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasPublicationInfo": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/np/RAJstnIeKD4ltnNRh_VG9vTA24LUopSYd0yyQ0vUuYJ_w/pubinfo" } ], "@type": [ "http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#Nanopublication" ] } ] }, { "@id": "https://w3id.org/np/RAJstnIeKD4ltnNRh_VG9vTA24LUopSYd0yyQ0vUuYJ_w/assertion", "@graph": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch09-11--claim-test", "http://purl.org/dc/terms/description": [ { "@value": "Extinct genera in Brachiopoda, Mollusca, Cnidaria, Echinodermata, Bryozoa were paged from PBDB (1000 per page) with first-appearance ages and family names. Genera needed at least 5 occurrences and a real family. The 80 families kept are those with the most such genera, capped at 80. A family is sudden when at least 8 genera fall in international ages (stages) and at least half fall in one age (14 sudden, 14 scored). Elsewhere means an occurrence on another modern continent whose younger age bound is at least the stage base. Ambiguous countries (RU, TR, KZ, EG, ID, CY) are ignored. Thin rock, only if the modal continent is North America, means Macrostrat package counts for the preceding age are under 20% of the modal age. Clause fraction None; elsewhere-only fraction None." } ], "@type": [ "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment" ], "http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment": [ { "@value": "Measured: null fraction of sudden families meeting the artefact clause (n = 14). Interpretation: Full quote (Origin, 1st ed., ch. IX): \"But we continually over-rate the perfection of the geological record, and falsely infer, because certain genera or families have not been found beneath a certain stage, that they did not exist before that stage.\" The passage continues that groups may have existed elsewhere and multiplied before reaching Europe and the United States, and that wide intervals between formations would make them appear suddenly. The test scores that artefact clause. A first-appearance gap by itself is not a pass. Scope is narrower than all life: extinct genera in Brachiopoda, Mollusca, Cnidaria, Echinodermata and Bryozoa. Families with at least 8 qualifying genera are eligible. If more than 80 are eligible, keep the 80 with the most qualifying genera, breaking ties by family name. That cutoff uses genus counts, not the elsewhere result. Modern continent, from the occurrence country code, stands in for Darwin's 'elsewhere'. It is not a paleocontinent. The stage of appearance is the modal stage of genus first-appearance early ages. data_kind is biological when clause (E) alone would give the same verdict. It is physical only when clause (U) changes the verdict." } ], "http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label": [ { "@value": "Claim test of darwin1859-ch09-11: inconclusive, confidence 0.35" } ], "http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso": [ { "@id": "https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/darwin-origin/darwin1859-ch09-11/result.json" } ], "http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets": [ { "@value": "A public fossil occurrence store with genus first appearances, stage ages, and country, plus a public rock-package count by stage for North America. Molecular clocks and historical compilation snapshots are not used." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType": [ { "@value": "claim-test/0.1.0" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind": [ { "@value": "biological" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation": [ { "@value": "Most such families have neither an older occurrence on another continent nor, where it can be measured, a thin North American rock record below the stage." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst": [ { "@value": "A family with no older occurrence and no measured thin-rock clause is not counted as an artefact. The gap alone is not a pass." }, { "@value": "Modern country is not the Cambrian-to-Recent paleocontinent. Plates have moved, so 'elsewhere' is a present-day proxy." }, { "@value": "Occurrence queries are capped (400 in the stage, 100 on each other continent). A cap can miss an elsewhere record, which counts against the claim." }, { "@value": "PBDB JSON includes elapsed_time, so a later download can hash differently while the ages and counts stay the same." }, { "@value": "The five phyla are a narrower scope than every fossil group. Families are whatever PBDB calls a family." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation": [ { "@value": "At least 70% of families that appear inside a single stage have an older occurrence on another modern continent, or, for a North American appearance, much less preserved rock in the preceding stage." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion": [ { "@value": "Refute if the clause holds for 40% or fewer of the sudden families. Between those thresholds the verdict is mixed. If fewer than 15 families are sudden, inconclusive with reason underpowered. A family that merely lacks older occurrences, with no elsewhere record and no measured thin-rock clause, does not meet the artefact clause. If more than a quarter of sudden-family occurrence queries fail, inconclusive with reason data-unavailable." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence": [ { "@value": "0.35", "@type": "http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#double" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch09-11--claim-test--dataset-1" }, { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch09-11--claim-test--dataset-2" }, { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch09-11--claim-test--dataset-3" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict": [ { "@value": "inconclusive" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis": [ { "@value": "Families of skeletonized marine animals whose genera first appear concentrated in one stage generally already occur, in older rocks, on a different modern continent, or the North American rock record below that stage is thin." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod": [ { "@value": "Fraction of sudden families meeting (E) or applicable (U). Thresholds 0.70 and 0.40. Genus subsample is the 80 families with the most genera that have at least 5 occurrences, inside the five phyla. Occurrence queries that return more than the requested limit can miss an elsewhere record; that bias counts against the claim." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion": [ { "@value": "A family is sudden if at least 8 of its genera with at least 5 occurrences can be placed in international stages and at least 50% of those placed genera fall in one stage. The artefact clause holds if (E) at least one occurrence on a different modern continent has its younger age bound at or older than that stage's base, or (U) the modal continent is North America and Macrostrat package counts for the preceding stage in the North America project are under 20% of the modal stage's package count. (U) is not applied if those package counts cannot be read from one response per stage. Pass if the clause holds for at least 70% of sudden families." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/preregistered": [ { "@value": "false", "@type": "http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#boolean" } ] }, { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch09-11--claim-test--dataset-1", "http://purl.org/dc/terms/description": [ { "@value": "stage age bounds" } ], "http://purl.org/dc/terms/license": [ { "@value": "" } ], "@type": [ "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem" ], "http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label": [ { "@value": "Dataset: Paleobiology Database international timescale" } ], "http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation": [ { "@id": "https://paleobiodb.org/data1.2/intervals/list.json?scale_id=1&vocab=pbdb" } ], "http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasDerivedFrom": [ { "@id": "https://paleobiodb.org/data1.2/intervals/list_doc.html" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasChecksum": [ { "@value": "sha256:0fb9d3d86172e6f99691d2b0c70390ba9997849e24cf140dc252ae0a607a39a2" 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