https://w3id.org/np/RAJqls6FOFPOWG_EvtqE_SPKkN_maGvzk5Z-cR9Y6FM1s/Head https://w3id.org/np/RAJqls6FOFPOWG_EvtqE_SPKkN_maGvzk5Z-cR9Y6FM1s http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion https://w3id.org/np/RAJqls6FOFPOWG_EvtqE_SPKkN_maGvzk5Z-cR9Y6FM1s/assertion https://w3id.org/np/RAJqls6FOFPOWG_EvtqE_SPKkN_maGvzk5Z-cR9Y6FM1s http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasProvenance https://w3id.org/np/RAJqls6FOFPOWG_EvtqE_SPKkN_maGvzk5Z-cR9Y6FM1s/provenance https://w3id.org/np/RAJqls6FOFPOWG_EvtqE_SPKkN_maGvzk5Z-cR9Y6FM1s http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasPublicationInfo https://w3id.org/np/RAJqls6FOFPOWG_EvtqE_SPKkN_maGvzk5Z-cR9Y6FM1s/pubinfo https://w3id.org/np/RAJqls6FOFPOWG_EvtqE_SPKkN_maGvzk5Z-cR9Y6FM1s http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#Nanopublication https://w3id.org/np/RAJqls6FOFPOWG_EvtqE_SPKkN_maGvzk5Z-cR9Y6FM1s/assertion https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test http://purl.org/dc/terms/description Downloaded eight NS-IBTS CA XML files from the DATRAS web service, kept Pleuronectes platessa records (Aphia 127143; Q1 2015-2019: 12504 records, Q3 2017-2019: 9514), converted mm length classes to cm, and computed k = 10,000 W/L^3 per fish (11474 Q1 fish of 15-50 cm with weight). Class means of k by 1-cm length class (>= 30 fish) were smoothed with a 3-class running mean and the maximum located; the same was done by sex, by year and for Q3. Maturity codes were mapped to immature (…1) / mature (…2-5) and a maximum-likelihood logistic ogive gave L50 pooled and by sex (10464 Q1 fish with maturity codes). https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment Measured: 43 cm, length class of maximum smoothed k in Q1 (upper end of analysed range 16-43 cm); k x 10^4 falls from 97.9 at 16 cm to a minimum of 93.1 at 26-27 cm and rises to 100.2 at 43 cm (n = 11474, class means based on 36-646 fish per class; standard deviations in derived/k_by_length.csv; the same U-shape appears in each year, each sex and in Q3). Interpretation: Thompson's k is the Fulton condition factor computed by length class from mean weights of trawl-caught plaice 'in a particular locality and at a particular time'. Modern survey fish are weighed individually, so class means of individual k are used, which is equivalent for the purpose. 'Near 30 cm' is read as 25-35 cm; 'about the size at which sexual maturity begins' is read as within 5 cm of the length at 50% maturity in the same samples, since the onset of maturity is not sharply defined. North Sea plaice today mature at smaller sizes than in 1907, so criterion (3) tests the coupling to maturity rather than the fixed 30 cm figure, while (2) tests the figure itself. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Claim test of thompson1917-ch03-17: refutes, confidence 0.85 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/thompson-growth-form/thompson1917-ch03-17/result.json https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets Planned datasets: ices-datras-ns-ibts-ca-q1-2015-2019, ices-datras-ns-ibts-ca-q3-2017-2019 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType claim-test/0.1.0 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind biological https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation Refutes if smoothed k is flat (max - min over classes < 3% of the mean) or monotonic (maximum at an end of the analysed range), or if L* lies outside 22-38 cm. Mixed if a hump exists in the right place but is more than 5 cm from L50, or if the hump exists only in one sex or season. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Maturity has shifted: North Sea plaice now reach 50% maturity at ~18 cm pooled (females 22.5 cm, males 15.2 cm) in Q1, far below the ~30 cm Thompson cited, so criterion (3) could not have been met at 30 cm even if a hump existed there. The k minimum (~26 cm) lies near the female L50, the opposite sign of the association Thompson proposed. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Notation: the pre-registration wrote k = 1000 W/L^3; the analysis reports k x 10^4 as Thompson did (plaice k ~ 100). The scaling does not affect any criterion. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Q3 maturity codes are sparse (1,652 fish) and Q3 L50 (~25 cm) differs from Q1; Q1 is the pre-registered primary season. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Scope difference: Thompson's 1907 fish came from 'a particular locality' in March with k from class mean weights; here fish are pooled across the whole North Sea survey and weighed individually. Spatial pooling can blur a local hump but cannot manufacture a minimum, and the by-year and by-sex replicates agree. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst The modern pattern is the inverse of Thompson's: k is highest in the smallest fish, falls to a minimum at 24-28 cm and rises again toward 40+ cm (a U, not a hump), in Q1 pooled, in each year 2015-2019, in each sex, and in Q3 (minimum 25-27 cm). No class near 30 cm is a maximum. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation Pre-registered. Data: ICES DATRAS exchange-format CA (age/biology) records for the North Sea IBTS, quarter 1 (January-February, the closest survey season to Thompson's March 1907 sample), years 2015-2019, species Pleuronectes platessa (Aphia 127143), individual weight > 0, lengths converted to cm. Compute k = 1000 W/L^3 (W in g, L in cm) per fish, average by 1-cm length class over 15-50 cm keeping classes with >= 30 fish, smooth with a 3-class running mean, and let L* be the length of the maximum smoothed k. Maturity: from the same Q1 CA records with a maturity code, classify immature (scale code ending in 1) vs mature (codes ending 2-5), fit a logistic of maturity on length (sexes pooled; by sex reported) and take L50. Supports if all hold: (1) hump: L* is at least 3 cm above the smallest and 3 cm below the largest analysed class, and smoothed k(L*) exceeds smoothed k at both ends of the analysed range by >= 3%; (2) 25 <= L* <= 35 cm; (3) |L* - L50| <= 5 cm. Secondary (reported): the same by sex, and for quarter 3 (2017-2019). https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion Refutes if smoothed k is flat (max - min over classes < 3% of the mean) or monotonic (maximum at an end of the analysed range), or if L* lies outside 22-38 cm. Mixed if a hump exists in the right place but is more than 5 cm from L50, or if the hump exists only in one sex or season. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence 0.85 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test--dataset-2 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict refutes https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis In North Sea plaice sampled in late winter, the weight-length coefficient k = W/L^3 averaged by length class rises with length to a maximum near 30 cm, close to the length at which sexual maturity begins, and then declines slowly at larger sizes. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod Downloaded eight NS-IBTS CA XML files from the DATRAS web service, kept Pleuronectes platessa records (Aphia 127143; Q1 2015-2019: 12504 records, Q3 2017-2019: 9514), converted mm length classes to cm, and computed k = 10,000 W/L^3 per fish (11474 Q1 fish of 15-50 cm with weight). Class means of k by 1-cm length class (>= 30 fish) were smoothed with a 3-class running mean and the maximum located; the same was done by sex, by year and for Q3. Maturity codes were mapped to immature (…1) / mature (…2-5) and a maximum-likelihood logistic ogive gave L50 pooled and by sex (10464 Q1 fish with maturity codes). https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion Pre-registered. Data: ICES DATRAS exchange-format CA (age/biology) records for the North Sea IBTS, quarter 1 (January-February, the closest survey season to Thompson's March 1907 sample), years 2015-2019, species Pleuronectes platessa (Aphia 127143), individual weight > 0, lengths converted to cm. Compute k = 1000 W/L^3 (W in g, L in cm) per fish, average by 1-cm length class over 15-50 cm keeping classes with >= 30 fish, smooth with a 3-class running mean, and let L* be the length of the maximum smoothed k. Maturity: from the same Q1 CA records with a maturity code, classify immature (scale code ending in 1) vs mature (codes ending 2-5), fit a logistic of maturity on length (sexes pooled; by sex reported) and take L50. Supports if all hold: (1) hump: L* is at least 3 cm above the smallest and 3 cm below the largest analysed class, and smoothed k(L*) exceeds smoothed k at both ends of the analysed range by >= 3%; (2) 25 <= L* <= 35 cm; (3) |L* - L50| <= 5 cm. Secondary (reported): the same by sex, and for quarter 3 (2017-2019). https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/preregistered false https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/claim/thompson1917-ch03-17 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasAssessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test--dataset-1 http://purl.org/dc/terms/description individual plaice length, weight, sex and maturity code (primary) https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test--dataset-1 http://purl.org/dc/terms/license ICES Data Policy (open, attribution) https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Dataset: ICES DATRAS exchange data, CA records, North Sea IBTS quarter 1, 2015-2019 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation https://datras.ices.dk/WebServices/DATRASWebService.asmx/getCAdata?survey=NS-IBTS&year=2015&quarter=1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation https://datras.ices.dk/WebServices/DATRASWebService.asmx/getCAdata?survey=NS-IBTS&year=2016&quarter=1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation https://datras.ices.dk/WebServices/DATRASWebService.asmx/getCAdata?survey=NS-IBTS&year=2017&quarter=1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation https://datras.ices.dk/WebServices/DATRASWebService.asmx/getCAdata?survey=NS-IBTS&year=2018&quarter=1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation https://datras.ices.dk/WebServices/DATRASWebService.asmx/getCAdata?survey=NS-IBTS&year=2019&quarter=1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasDerivedFrom https://datras.ices.dk/ https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasChecksum sha256:2301b217143dffc0589a1ffe49b87fb398928a929666dce2a3196c1766d2dfdc https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasChecksum sha256:a4bbaaa67ebf708f9f48b4bd4374847a6f5ee05e8474fd1f1442c5588001dab6 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test--dataset-1 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https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test--dataset-2 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Dataset: ICES DATRAS exchange data, CA records, North Sea IBTS quarter 3, 2017-2019 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test--dataset-2 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation https://datras.ices.dk/WebServices/DATRASWebService.asmx/getCAdata?survey=NS-IBTS&year=2017&quarter=3 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test--dataset-2 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation https://datras.ices.dk/WebServices/DATRASWebService.asmx/getCAdata?survey=NS-IBTS&year=2018&quarter=3 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-17--claim-test--dataset-2 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation https://datras.ices.dk/WebServices/DATRASWebService.asmx/getCAdata?survey=NS-IBTS&year=2019&quarter=3 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