https://w3id.org/np/RAJmz3DuA8rQH2lhocO_bq4KqvdQKW3cSormpRotXOJOo/Head https://w3id.org/np/RAJmz3DuA8rQH2lhocO_bq4KqvdQKW3cSormpRotXOJOo http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion https://w3id.org/np/RAJmz3DuA8rQH2lhocO_bq4KqvdQKW3cSormpRotXOJOo/assertion https://w3id.org/np/RAJmz3DuA8rQH2lhocO_bq4KqvdQKW3cSormpRotXOJOo http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasProvenance https://w3id.org/np/RAJmz3DuA8rQH2lhocO_bq4KqvdQKW3cSormpRotXOJOo/provenance https://w3id.org/np/RAJmz3DuA8rQH2lhocO_bq4KqvdQKW3cSormpRotXOJOo http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasPublicationInfo https://w3id.org/np/RAJmz3DuA8rQH2lhocO_bq4KqvdQKW3cSormpRotXOJOo/pubinfo https://w3id.org/np/RAJmz3DuA8rQH2lhocO_bq4KqvdQKW3cSormpRotXOJOo http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#Nanopublication https://w3id.org/np/RAJmz3DuA8rQH2lhocO_bq4KqvdQKW3cSormpRotXOJOo/assertion https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109 http://purl.org/dc/terms/description Joined RHQ_J to DEMO_J on SEQN, kept exact RHQ010 ages 6 through 19, and computed the pre-registered weighted and unweighted medians with WTINT2YR. Breast development was not in the file and was not scored. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment Measured: 12 years (weighted median age at first menstrual period, RHQ010) (n = 2948). Interpretation: The sentence says that at about fourteen the breasts swell and the menses begin. One assessor marked the claim only partly resolvable because breast development and menarche need not coincide and because a modern median is a poor stand-in for one ancient age. This test measures only age at menarche, the clause with a direct public variable (RHQ010). It does not measure thelarche, and a support would not establish that the two events begin together. 'About fourteen' is pre-registered as a median in [13, 15], within one year of 14. The sample is United States residents in 2017-2018, which is inside the claim's scope of human females and is not a reconstruction of classical Athens. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Claim test of aristotle-ha07-02 (pr-109): mixed, confidence 0.55 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/aristotle-biology/aristotle-ha07-02/pr-109/result.json https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets A public survey that asks women the age in years of the first menstrual period, with a documented weight for the interview sample. One NHANES cycle, not a pool of cycles chosen after seeing the median. Girls who have not started and top-coded ages are excluded rather than imputed. Thelarche is not substituted from another study after the fact. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType claim-test/0.1.0 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind biological https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation Both medians are below 12 or above 16 years. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Registered at 2026-11-02T00:42:19Z (7:42 PM America/New_York on 2026-11-01), before RHQ_J.xpt or DEMO_J.xpt was downloaded. HEAD of the XPT URLs returned HTTP 200, content-length 1242960 and 3412720. The public codebook was read for variable names and value labels, and that HTML also prints frequency counts. Those counts are not measurements and were not used to place the [13, 15] window, which is the claim's 'about fourteen'. The XPT files, which are over 1 MB, will not be committed. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation The weighted and the unweighted median age at first menstrual period are both between 13 and 15 years inclusive. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion Pre-registered. The menarche clause is refuted when both the weighted and the unweighted medians of exact RHQ010 ages are below 12 or above 16. A median in the gray band, or disagreement between the weighted and unweighted medians, is mixed. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence 0.55 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109--dataset-2 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict mixed https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis If girls begin to menstruate at about fourteen, the median recalled age at first menstrual period in a national sample of women and girls falls within a year of fourteen. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod Weighted and unweighted medians of exact recalled ages, classified into near, far, and gray bins fixed above. Both medians must fall in the same decisive bin. No resolvability score enters the verdict. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion Pre-registered. NHANES 2017-2018 RHQ_J variable RHQ010, joined to DEMO_J on SEQN, interview weight WTINT2YR. Exact ages are the integers 6 through 19. Codes 0 (has not started), 20 (20 or older), 777, and 999 are excluded from the median. The weighted median is the smallest included age at which the cumulative positive interview weight reaches at least half of the total positive weight, after sorting ages ascending. The unweighted median uses the same rule with equal weights. Near means the median is in [13, 15]. Far means it is below 12 or above 16. Gray is everything else in between. Supports only if both medians are near and at least 200 exact ages are included. Refutes only if both medians are far and at least 200 exact ages are included. Mixed if the two medians are not in the same bin, or either is gray. Inconclusive with reason 'data-unavailable' if either file fails to download or WTINT2YR cannot be joined. Inconclusive with reason 'underpowered' if fewer than 200 exact ages remain. Inconclusive with reason 'other' if codes 0 and 20 together exceed 10 percent of non-missing RHQ010 values. Breast development is not in this file and is not given a verdict. Confidence: 0.75 if refutes, 0.50 if supports, 0.55 if mixed. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/preregistered false https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/claim/aristotle-ha07-02 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasAssessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109--dataset-1 http://purl.org/dc/terms/description recalled age at first menstrual period (RHQ010) https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109--dataset-1 http://purl.org/dc/terms/license U.S. government public-use file (National Center for Health Statistics) https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Dataset: NHANES 2017-2018 Reproductive Health (RHQ_J) https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation https://wwwn.cdc.gov/Nchs/Data/Nhanes/Public/2017/DataFiles/RHQ_J.xpt https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasDerivedFrom https://wwwn.cdc.gov/Nchs/Data/Nhanes/Public/2017/DataFiles/RHQ_J.htm https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasChecksum sha256:c919896216154ea207470dd84e428f5fdd65ced39735148c78fb6032e0b77a7b https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109--dataset-2 http://purl.org/dc/terms/description interview weight WTINT2YR https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109--dataset-2 http://purl.org/dc/terms/license U.S. government public-use file (National Center for Health Statistics) https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109--dataset-2 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109--dataset-2 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Dataset: NHANES 2017-2018 Demographics (DEMO_J) https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109--dataset-2 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation https://wwwn.cdc.gov/Nchs/Data/Nhanes/Public/2017/DataFiles/DEMO_J.xpt https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109--dataset-2 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasDerivedFrom https://wwwn.cdc.gov/Nchs/Data/Nhanes/Public/2017/DataFiles/DEMO_J.htm https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--pr-109--dataset-2 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasChecksum sha256:c0b46e0345ea19404928656277c8b0d10b0cca348a9b2fe4fc3c67e8b7ee73ec https://w3id.org/np/RAJmz3DuA8rQH2lhocO_bq4KqvdQKW3cSormpRotXOJOo/provenance https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#SoftwareAgent https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label delphisci claim tester (Grok 4.7; 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