https://w3id.org/np/RAHzYFhcwOT1Ggup1l-HiciqOyV7i7cx0iaurNEsO2sxA/Head https://w3id.org/np/RAHzYFhcwOT1Ggup1l-HiciqOyV7i7cx0iaurNEsO2sxA http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion https://w3id.org/np/RAHzYFhcwOT1Ggup1l-HiciqOyV7i7cx0iaurNEsO2sxA/assertion https://w3id.org/np/RAHzYFhcwOT1Ggup1l-HiciqOyV7i7cx0iaurNEsO2sxA http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasProvenance https://w3id.org/np/RAHzYFhcwOT1Ggup1l-HiciqOyV7i7cx0iaurNEsO2sxA/provenance https://w3id.org/np/RAHzYFhcwOT1Ggup1l-HiciqOyV7i7cx0iaurNEsO2sxA http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasPublicationInfo https://w3id.org/np/RAHzYFhcwOT1Ggup1l-HiciqOyV7i7cx0iaurNEsO2sxA/pubinfo https://w3id.org/np/RAHzYFhcwOT1Ggup1l-HiciqOyV7i7cx0iaurNEsO2sxA http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#Nanopublication https://w3id.org/np/RAHzYFhcwOT1Ggup1l-HiciqOyV7i7cx0iaurNEsO2sxA/assertion https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test http://purl.org/dc/terms/description Galton's child-level table was downloaded and each of the 934 children was compared with the same-sex parent and with the same-sex parent of every other family. A child counted as resembling when their own parent was strictly closer in height than more than half of those other parents. The fraction f = 536/934 was compared with 0.5 by a two-sided binomial test. The planned pedigree supplement was downloaded from figshare and its stored cell text was read: it reports counts of patients with a family cancer history, with no parent identifiers and no per-person phenotype, so no grandparent-parent-grandchild path was scored. Daughter and mother mean heights are both about 64 inches and son and father means are both about 69 inches, so the sex-matched comparison is on one scale within each sex. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment Measured: 0.5739 fraction of children closer in stature to their own same-sex parent than to most other families' same-sex parents (n = 934, two-sided binomial p against 0.5 = 7.11e-06). Interpretation: The sentence has two empirical parts: children mostly resemble their parents or ancestors, and resemblance can reappear in a grandchild after being absent in the child (the Elis example in the same paragraph). 'Resemble' for the usual case is sex-matched stature distance, because Galton measured height and sons and daughters are not the same height as both parents. The skip is a discrete phenotype on a published pedigree, not stature: stature is continuous and two-generational in this series, so it cannot show a trait absent in the child and present in the grandchild. Cancer-predisposition affection is a heritable phenotype, not the skin colour of Aristotle's anecdote; it is used only for the existential 'can' clause. A simulated pedigree does not count. The population rate of skipping is not estimated, because familial ascertainment biases that rate; one recorded skip is enough for 'can'. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Claim test of aristotle-ha07-17: mixed, confidence 0.66 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/aristotle-biology/aristotle-ha07-17/result.json https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets Individual human measurements or a checksummed transcription of a published measurement table, with one row per child and parental heights, for clause U. For clause S, a checksummed paper supplement of real families with parent identifiers and a binary inherited phenotype across three generations. Species-level life-history tables, simulated pedigrees, and encyclopaedia prose are not admissible. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType claim-test/0.1.0 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind biological https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation f at or below 0.50, or f at least 0.60 while every scorable three-generation path in a table of at least 20 paths fails to skip. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Absolute distance to the same-sex parent ignores resemblance in the other parent and in every trait except height. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Sons alone are 296/481 = 0.615 and daughters alone are 240/453 = 0.530. The pooled fraction was pre-registered; the sexes were not separate tests. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Stature in 205 British families measured by Galton is one quantitative trait. It is not the birthmark or the skin colour in Aristotle's examples, and the series is not a population sample. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst The generation-skip clause was not scored. Byrjalsen et al. 2020 Table 10 counts how many pediatric-cancer patients have an affected relative. It is not a list of grandparents, parents and grandchildren. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst The locked bar for 'mostly' was f >= 0.60. The measured 536/934 = 0.5739 is above chance (two-sided binomial p = 7.11e-06) and below that bar, so clause U is intermediate. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation The fraction f of children closer to their own same-sex parent than to most other same-sex parents is at least 0.60 and greater than chance, and at least one grandparent-parent-grandchild path shows the phenotype in the grandparent and grandchild but not in the parent. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion Refutes if f <= 0.50 (children are not closer to their own same-sex parent than to other parents; the 'usually' clause fails). Mixed if 0.50 < f < 0.60, or if U passes and a scorable pedigree table with at least 20 grandparent-parent-grandchild paths contains zero skips. Inconclusive, reason data-unavailable, if the stature table cannot be fetched. Inconclusive, reason underpowered, if U passes but no admissible pedigree table records affection on a grandparent-parent-grandchild path (the skip clause is then untested). Inconclusive, reason not-operationalizable, if a fetched pedigree file has no parent pointers and no binary phenotype. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence 0.66 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test--dataset-2 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict mixed https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis Most children are closer in a measured trait to their own parent than to other children's parents, and a heritable trait can be present in a grandparent and a grandchild while absent in the parent between them. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod Clause U: f = (number of children with p_i > 0.5) / n, compared with 0.5 by a two-sided binomial test, thresholds f >= 0.60 and p < 0.01 to pass and f <= 0.50 to refute. Clause S: count of skip paths; the existential clause passes at a count of at least 1 and fails only when the count is 0 among at least 20 paths. Both clauses must pass to support the claim. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion Two clauses, both required. (U) Stature, sex-matched: for each child in Galton's family series, d_own is the absolute difference between the child's height and the same-sex parent's height, and p_i is the fraction of other families' same-sex parents who are farther from that child than the child's own parent. A child resembles the parent when p_i > 0.5. Let f be that count divided by the number of children who have a same-sex parent height. Clause U passes if f >= 0.60 and a two-sided exact binomial test of the count against a chance proportion of 0.5 gives p < 0.01. (S) In a real (not simulated) three-generation pedigree table, a skip is one grandparent-parent-grandchild path in which the trait is recorded present in the grandparent, absent in the intervening parent, and present in the grandchild. Clause S passes if the number of such paths is at least 1. The claim passes only if U and S both pass. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/preregistered false https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/claim/aristotle-ha07-17 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasAssessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test--dataset-1 http://purl.org/dc/terms/description sex-matched parent and child heights for the 'usually resemble' clause https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-17--claim-test--dataset-1 http://purl.org/dc/terms/license GPL (HistData package). 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