https://w3id.org/np/RAGUXH6ZmCXdyIB6x-pz7J9R2QI59BaMV7p-0NWcTjU8s/Head https://w3id.org/np/RAGUXH6ZmCXdyIB6x-pz7J9R2QI59BaMV7p-0NWcTjU8s http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion https://w3id.org/np/RAGUXH6ZmCXdyIB6x-pz7J9R2QI59BaMV7p-0NWcTjU8s/assertion https://w3id.org/np/RAGUXH6ZmCXdyIB6x-pz7J9R2QI59BaMV7p-0NWcTjU8s http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasProvenance https://w3id.org/np/RAGUXH6ZmCXdyIB6x-pz7J9R2QI59BaMV7p-0NWcTjU8s/provenance https://w3id.org/np/RAGUXH6ZmCXdyIB6x-pz7J9R2QI59BaMV7p-0NWcTjU8s http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasPublicationInfo https://w3id.org/np/RAGUXH6ZmCXdyIB6x-pz7J9R2QI59BaMV7p-0NWcTjU8s/pubinfo https://w3id.org/np/RAGUXH6ZmCXdyIB6x-pz7J9R2QI59BaMV7p-0NWcTjU8s http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#Nanopublication https://w3id.org/np/RAGUXH6ZmCXdyIB6x-pz7J9R2QI59BaMV7p-0NWcTjU8s/assertion https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test http://purl.org/dc/terms/description Searched Europe PMC with the pre-registered query 'seasonal plumage colour change birds' and OPEN_ACCESS:Y, pageSize 25, and opened each hit's full text in returned order. A table counted only when its caption or header contained plumage and a season, moult or colour word and the rows were species seasonal-plumage states. Coefficient tables that name plumage colour or temperature seasonality were not that table. None of the 25 hits was admissible. The second pre-registered query, 'Turdus merula plumage', was then walked the same way: 25 hits, 24 full texts, one hit with no PMCID, and no admissible table. AVONET supplementary dataset 1 was opened only to read sheet headers. AVONET1_BirdLife columns include Sequence, Species1, Family1, Order1, Avibase.ID1, Total.individuals, Female, Male, Unknown, Complete.measures, Beak.Length_Culmen, Beak.Length_Nares, Beak.Width, Beak.Depth, Tarsus.Length, Wing.Length, Kipps.Distance, Secondary1, Hand-Wing.Index, Tail.Length, Mass, Mass.Source, Mass.Refs.Other, Inference, Traits.inferred, Reference.species, Habitat, Habitat.Density, Migration, Trophic.Level, Trophic.Niche, Primary.Lifestyle, Min.Latitude, Max.Latitude, Centroid.Latitude, Centroid.Longitude, Range.Size. No column records seasonal plumage or song, so trophic niche and morphology were not scored. The song clause is untested. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment Measured: null fraction of species scored as changing adult plumage colour with season (n = 0, no admissible table in either 25-hit window). Interpretation: The owsel in the claim's quote is the blackbird, Turdus merula, which is the species named in the claim record. 'Becomes yellow instead of black' requires a seasonal shift toward yellow, not a yellow bill, not a yellow eye-ring, and not a brown female. Juvenile versus adult plumage is not a seasonal change of the same adult. 'Many' is at least 10 percent of species scored for the trait, with a denominator. Song is a separate clause and is left untested when the table has no song column. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Claim test of aristotle-ha09-39: inconclusive, confidence 0.84 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/aristotle-biology/aristotle-ha09-39/result.json https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets A published table of seasonal plumage states or of a seasonal-change flag, checksummed, with a species denominator. Sex-only colour scores, range maps, and photographs that are not already tabulated are not admissible. AVONET counts only if it has a seasonal plumage or song field. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType claim-test/0.1.0 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind none https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation Turdus merula is scored as not shifting from black toward yellow, and the share of species that change adult plumage colour seasonally is under 10 percent. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst AVONET has no seasonal plumage or song column. Habitat, migration and trophic niche were not used as colour or song. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Tables that mention plumage colour as a regression covariate, or temperature seasonality, were not scored as seasonal adult plumage change. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst The blackbird clause and the share of species that change colour are both unscored. Song is untested. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst The pre-registered window is the first 25 open-access hits of each query. A seasonal-plumage table later in either hit list was not opened. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation At least 10 percent of bird species in a seasonal-plumage table change adult colour with season, and Turdus merula is scored as shifting from black toward yellow. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion Refutes if the blackbird is scored and is not recorded as changing from black toward yellow, and (p < 0.10 or n < 50 so that 'many' also fails). Mixed if the blackbird is scored and does not change from black toward yellow while p >= 0.10 and n >= 50, or the blackbird does change black toward yellow while p < 0.10 and n >= 50. Inconclusive, reason data-unavailable, if no admissible plumage table is fetched. A table that only compares males with females, without a season, does not score seasonal change. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence 0.84 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test--dataset-2 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test--dataset-3 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test--dataset-4 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test--dataset-5 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict inconclusive https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis If the claim holds, a substantial share of scored bird species change adult plumage colour with the season, and the blackbird (Turdus merula) is recorded as changing from black toward yellow, with a seasonal change in song. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod p = (species flagged as seasonal adult plumage-colour change) / n. Support needs p >= 0.10, n >= 50, and a positive blackbird colour row. The blackbird example and the 'many' clause can split, which is mixed. Song is scored only from a song column. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion Admissible table: a checksummed published table (paper supplement or an in-article table fetched as XML/CSV) that scores seasonal change in adult plumage colour, or that records the seasonal plumage states of Turdus merula. AVONET is used only if a column actually records seasonal plumage or song; morphology and trophic niche are not plumage. Let n be the number of species scored for seasonal plumage-colour change and p the fraction scored as changing. 'Many' is p >= 0.10 with n >= 50. The blackbird clause holds only if a row for Turdus merula records a shift from black toward yellow. The song clause holds only if a column records a seasonal song change for that species or for the scored set. Supports if p >= 0.10, n >= 50, and the blackbird row records black toward yellow. If no song column exists, the song clause is marked untested and does not block support of the colour clauses. Selection rule, fixed now: Europe PMC REST search query 'seasonal plumage colour change birds' with OPEN_ACCESS:Y, pageSize 25, hits in returned order; the first table whose header or caption contains plumage and (season or moult or color or colour) is the dataset. No later hit is opened if that table is admissible. If that search fails, a second query 'Turdus merula plumage' is allowed under the same first-table rule. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/preregistered false https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/claim/aristotle-ha09-39 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasAssessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test--dataset-1 http://purl.org/dc/terms/description first 25 open-access hits, in returned order https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test--dataset-1 http://purl.org/dc/terms/license not stated in the Europe PMC search record https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Dataset: Europe PMC search: seasonal plumage colour change birds https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/search?query=seasonal+plumage+colour+change+birds+OPEN_ACCESS%3AY&format=json&pageSize=25&resultType=core https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasDerivedFrom https://europepmc.org/ https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasChecksum sha256:b118b64244b789bddc6f871752511b903fa6dc590f7666a43d4cce45346ed981 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test--dataset-2 http://purl.org/dc/terms/description JATS table-wrap captions and headers scanned for a seasonal plumage table https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test--dataset-2 http://purl.org/dc/terms/license article licences are on the individual search hits; the search record does not state one licence for the set https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test--dataset-2 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test--dataset-2 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Dataset: Full texts opened for the seasonal-plumage search https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test--dataset-2 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC11112311/fullTextXML https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test--dataset-2 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC11296197/fullTextXML 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