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A table counted only when its caption or header contained plumage and a season, moult or colour word and the rows were species seasonal-plumage states. Coefficient tables that name plumage colour or temperature seasonality were not that table. None of the 25 hits was admissible. The second pre-registered query, 'Turdus merula plumage', was then walked the same way: 25 hits, 24 full texts, one hit with no PMCID, and no admissible table. AVONET supplementary dataset 1 was opened only to read sheet headers. AVONET1_BirdLife columns include Sequence, Species1, Family1, Order1, Avibase.ID1, Total.individuals, Female, Male, Unknown, Complete.measures, Beak.Length_Culmen, Beak.Length_Nares, Beak.Width, Beak.Depth, Tarsus.Length, Wing.Length, Kipps.Distance, Secondary1, Hand-Wing.Index, Tail.Length, Mass, Mass.Source, Mass.Refs.Other, Inference, Traits.inferred, Reference.species, Habitat, Habitat.Density, Migration, Trophic.Level, Trophic.Niche, Primary.Lifestyle, Min.Latitude, Max.Latitude, Centroid.Latitude, Centroid.Longitude, Range.Size. No column records seasonal plumage or song, so trophic niche and morphology were not scored. The song clause is untested." } ], "@type": [ "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment" ], "http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment": [ { "@value": "Measured: null fraction of species scored as changing adult plumage colour with season (n = 0, no admissible table in either 25-hit window). Interpretation: The owsel in the claim's quote is the blackbird, Turdus merula, which is the species named in the claim record. 'Becomes yellow instead of black' requires a seasonal shift toward yellow, not a yellow bill, not a yellow eye-ring, and not a brown female. Juvenile versus adult plumage is not a seasonal change of the same adult. 'Many' is at least 10 percent of species scored for the trait, with a denominator. Song is a separate clause and is left untested when the table has no song column." } ], "http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label": [ { "@value": "Claim test of aristotle-ha09-39: inconclusive, confidence 0.84" } ], "http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso": [ { "@id": "https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/aristotle-biology/aristotle-ha09-39/result.json" } ], "http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets": [ { "@value": "A published table of seasonal plumage states or of a seasonal-change flag, checksummed, with a species denominator. Sex-only colour scores, range maps, and photographs that are not already tabulated are not admissible. AVONET counts only if it has a seasonal plumage or song field." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType": [ { "@value": "claim-test/0.1.0" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind": [ { "@value": "none" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation": [ { "@value": "Turdus merula is scored as not shifting from black toward yellow, and the share of species that change adult plumage colour seasonally is under 10 percent." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst": [ { "@value": "AVONET has no seasonal plumage or song column. Habitat, migration and trophic niche were not used as colour or song." }, { "@value": "Tables that mention plumage colour as a regression covariate, or temperature seasonality, were not scored as seasonal adult plumage change." }, { "@value": "The blackbird clause and the share of species that change colour are both unscored. Song is untested." }, { "@value": "The pre-registered window is the first 25 open-access hits of each query. A seasonal-plumage table later in either hit list was not opened." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation": [ { "@value": "At least 10 percent of bird species in a seasonal-plumage table change adult colour with season, and Turdus merula is scored as shifting from black toward yellow." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion": [ { "@value": "Refutes if the blackbird is scored and is not recorded as changing from black toward yellow, and (p < 0.10 or n < 50 so that 'many' also fails). Mixed if the blackbird is scored and does not change from black toward yellow while p >= 0.10 and n >= 50, or the blackbird does change black toward yellow while p < 0.10 and n >= 50. Inconclusive, reason data-unavailable, if no admissible plumage table is fetched. A table that only compares males with females, without a season, does not score seasonal change." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence": [ { "@value": "0.84", "@type": "http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#double" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test--dataset-1" }, { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test--dataset-2" }, { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test--dataset-3" }, { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test--dataset-4" }, { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha09-39--claim-test--dataset-5" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict": [ { "@value": "inconclusive" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis": [ { "@value": "If the claim holds, a substantial share of scored bird species change adult plumage colour with the season, and the blackbird (Turdus merula) is recorded as changing from black toward yellow, with a seasonal change in song." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod": [ { "@value": "p = (species flagged as seasonal adult plumage-colour change) / n. 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