https://w3id.org/np/RAEfOF3iKFaMQZDwVGTheJmvz3Ek5lB6s09hnBhdMi4Gc
.trig | .trig.txt | .jelly | .jelly.txt | .jsonld | .jsonld.txt | .nq | .nq.txt | .xml | .xml.txt
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sub:assertion {
<https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch11-08--claim-test> a <https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment>;
dc:description "ETOPO 2022 (60 arc-second, surface) was fetched from the NCEI THREDDS NetCDF Subset Service in six 60-degree longitude bands with horizStride=6, giving a 1800 x 3600 global grid at 0.1 degree (nearest-sample subsampling; the six NetCDF files, 26 MB in total, are cached in data/ and hashed in result.json). Cells with elevation >= -130 m were labelled into 4-connected components with longitude wrap-around (scipy.ndimage.label plus union-find across the +-180 meridian). Six continent seed cells and 45 oceanic and 20 continental islands are listed in derived/sites.csv; each island is located by the nearest present-day land cell (z >= 0) within +-5 cells, or failing that the nearest cell emergent at -130 m (its bank). An island is 'connected' if its -130 m component contains a continent seed. Five continental gaps were tested for connectivity at -130 m, each restricted to the relevant ocean: T1 Eurasia-North America on cells north of 20 N with the Bering region (lat > 55 N, lon 160 E to 160 W) masked; T2 Africa-South America on cells south of 30 N; T3 Eurasia-Australia, T4 Antarctica-South America and T5 Antarctica-Australia on the full grid. For every gap, the Bering connection and every island, the sill depth (shallowest sea level at which the pair joins) was found by bisection on the threshold (14 steps, lower bound -6000 m for gaps and -1000 m for islands). Outputs: derived/island_connectivity.csv and derived/measured.json. Verdict by the pre-registered rule.";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment> "Measured: 1 fraction of pre-registered oceanic islands whose emergent component at -130 m contains no continent seed (n = 45, 36 of 45 islands resolved as present-day land on the 0.1-degree grid (the rest located by their -130 m bank); 0 of 5 continental gaps connected at -130 m; 43 of 45 oceanic islands not joined to any continent even at -1000 m). Interpretation: 'The recent period' / 'period of existing species' is read as the Quaternary, for which the maximum glacio-eustatic sea-level fall (about 120-130 m below present) is the most generous possible allowance for land exposure; a gap that remains submerged at -130 m cannot have been bridged by land at any time in that period without vertical crustal movement, which Darwin's opponents (Forbes) invoked and Darwin doubted. 'Oceanic islands' are the volcanic and coral islands listed in derived/sites.csv (one representative point each). 'Continuously or almost continuously united' is approximated by connectivity at the extreme lowstand; connections that exist only near -130 m were at most intermittent, which already satisfies Darwin's denial, so the test is conservative with respect to the claim. The 0.1-degree grid (about 11 km) cannot resolve straits narrower than a cell; bilinear resampling smooths sills, which is noted as a limitation.";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "Claim test of darwin1859-ch11-08: supports, confidence 0.9";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso> <https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/darwin-origin/darwin1859-ch11-08/result.json>;
prov:wasAttributedTo <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1>;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets> "Planned datasets: noaa-etopo-2022-ncei-imageserver";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType> "claim-test/0.1.0";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind> "physical";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation> "Pre-registered. The claim is REFUTED if two or more of T1-T5 are connected at -130 m, or if 25% or more of the oceanic islands connect to a continent at -130 m. Other outcomes are 'mixed'. The Bering connection between Eurasia and North America is reported separately with its sill depth (the shallowest threshold at which the two connect) because Darwin's wording concerns continents that are 'now quite separate' and he explicitly accepted a near-continuous circumpolar land connection during the glacial period (Chapter XI); it does not enter the verdict.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst> "Deviation from the pre-registration, disclosed: the plan named the NCEI ArcGIS ImageServer (DEM_all mosaic) exportImage as the access route; it was replaced by the NCEI THREDDS subset service of the ETOPO 2022 60 arc-second file itself because the ImageServer mosaic blends ETOPO with higher-resolution coastal DEMs and resamples bilinearly, whereas the THREDDS route delivers unmodified ETOPO 2022 samples. The dataset (ETOPO 2022, DOI 10.25921/fd45-gt74), grid resolution and all analysis rules are as pre-registered.",
"Nine small oceanic islands (Ascension, Diego Garcia, Cocos Keeling, Amsterdam, Juan Fernandez, Pitcairn, Norfolk, Lord Howe, Raoul) are not sampled as land on the 0.1-degree grid; six were located by their -130 m bank and three (Cocos Keeling, Amsterdam, Pitcairn) have no emergent cell within 0.5 degrees, so they are counted as unconnected because the surrounding sampled sea floor is far below -130 m. Excluding them changes nothing (36/36 resolved islands unconnected).",
"Positive controls behave as expected: 14 of 20 continental islands connect at -130 m with shallow sills (Great Britain -30 m, Ireland -53 m, Borneo -35 m, Sumatra -20 m, Java -32 m, New Guinea -13 m, Tasmania -58 m, Newfoundland -63 m, Taiwan -56 m, Hainan -21 m, Trinidad -14 m, Sakhalin -3 m, Sri Lanka -8 m, Honshu -119 m), while the continental fragments (Madagascar, New Zealand, New Caledonia, Seychelles) are isolated to -1000 m, Cuba joins only at -728 m and the Falklands at -163 m. The method therefore discriminates shelf islands from isolated ones at the resolution used.",
"Result: 0 of 5 continental gaps are connected at -130 m (sill depths: Eurasia-North America via the North Atlantic -757 m, Africa-South America -3750 m, Australia-Asia -1321 m, Antarctica-South America and Antarctica-Australia -3422 m); 0 of 45 oceanic islands join a continent at -130 m, and 43 of 45 remain isolated even at -1000 m (the two exceptions, Iceland and the Faroes, join Europe only at -608 m across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge). The Bering connection, excluded from the verdict as explained in the pre-registration, has a sill of -45 m and joins Eurasia and North America at -130 m, as Darwin himself allowed.",
"The ETOPO 2022 surface layer includes ice-sheet and ice-shelf surfaces around Antarctica and Greenland; this can only enlarge the Antarctic component and so works against the claim for T4 and T5, which nevertheless remain unconnected.",
"The test is of bathymetry, not of history: it shows that no glacio-eustatic sea-level fall within the Quaternary range (about -120 to -130 m) could have joined the tested continents or oceanic islands to one another without vertical crustal movement of hundreds to thousands of metres. It does not rule out Forbes-style subsidence hypotheses by itself, and the 'period of existing species' is read as the Quaternary. The 0.1-degree nearest-sample grid can miss sills narrower than about 11 km in either direction (making a strait appear closed or open); the positive controls suggest the effect is small, and the margins in the main results (hundreds to thousands of metres) are far larger than any plausible resolution artefact.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation> "Pre-registered. Using the NOAA ETOPO 2022 global relief model exported from the NCEI image service onto a 0.1-degree grid, cells with elevation >= -130 m are treated as potentially emergent and labelled into connected components (with longitude wrap). The 45 pre-registered oceanic islands in derived/sites.csv are checked for membership of a continental component (continent seeds in the same file). Five continental gaps are tested for connection at -130 m: (T1) Eurasia-North America via the Atlantic, with the Bering region (lat > 55 N, lon 160 E to 160 W) masked as deep; (T2) Africa/Eurasia-South America; (T3) Australia/New Guinea-Asia; (T4) Antarctica-South America; (T5) Antarctica-Australia. The claim is SUPPORTED if none of T1-T5 is connected at -130 m and at least 90% of the oceanic islands are unconnected. A set of 20 continental (shelf or fragment) islands is run as a positive control and is not part of the verdict.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion> "Pre-registered. The claim is REFUTED if two or more of T1-T5 are connected at -130 m, or if 25% or more of the oceanic islands connect to a continent at -130 m. Other outcomes are 'mixed'. The Bering connection between Eurasia and North America is reported separately with its sill depth (the shallowest threshold at which the two connect) because Darwin's wording concerns continents that are 'now quite separate' and he explicitly accepted a near-continuous circumpolar land connection during the glacial period (Chapter XI); it does not enter the verdict.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence> "0.9"^^xsd:double;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence> <https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch11-08--claim-test--dataset-1>;
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict> "supports";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis> "If now-separate continents and the existing oceanic islands were not continuously or almost continuously joined by land during the period of existing species, then even at the lowest Quaternary sea level (about -130 m) the sea floor between them should remain submerged: oceanic islands should not connect to any continent, and the Atlantic, Indian and Southern Ocean gaps between continents should not close.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod> "ETOPO 2022 (60 arc-second, surface) was fetched from the NCEI THREDDS NetCDF Subset Service in six 60-degree longitude bands with horizStride=6, giving a 1800 x 3600 global grid at 0.1 degree (nearest-sample subsampling; the six NetCDF files, 26 MB in total, are cached in data/ and hashed in result.json). Cells with elevation >= -130 m were labelled into 4-connected components with longitude wrap-around (scipy.ndimage.label plus union-find across the +-180 meridian). Six continent seed cells and 45 oceanic and 20 continental islands are listed in derived/sites.csv; each island is located by the nearest present-day land cell (z >= 0) within +-5 cells, or failing that the nearest cell emergent at -130 m (its bank). An island is 'connected' if its -130 m component contains a continent seed. Five continental gaps were tested for connectivity at -130 m, each restricted to the relevant ocean: T1 Eurasia-North America on cells north of 20 N with the Bering region (lat > 55 N, lon 160 E to 160 W) masked; T2 Africa-South America on cells south of 30 N; T3 Eurasia-Australia, T4 Antarctica-South America and T5 Antarctica-Australia on the full grid. For every gap, the Bering connection and every island, the sill depth (shallowest sea level at which the pair joins) was found by bisection on the threshold (14 steps, lower bound -6000 m for gaps and -1000 m for islands). Outputs: derived/island_connectivity.csv and derived/measured.json. Verdict by the pre-registered rule.";
<https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion> "Pre-registered. Using the NOAA ETOPO 2022 global relief model exported from the NCEI image service onto a 0.1-degree grid, cells with elevation >= -130 m are treated as potentially emergent and labelled into connected components (with longitude wrap). The 45 pre-registered oceanic islands in derived/sites.csv are checked for membership of a continental component (continent seeds in the same file). Five continental gaps are tested for connection at -130 m: (T1) Eurasia-North America via the Atlantic, with the Bering region (lat > 55 N, lon 160 E to 160 W) masked as deep; (T2) Africa/Eurasia-South America; (T3) Australia/New Guinea-Asia; (T4) Antarctica-South America; (T5) Antarctica-Australia. The claim is SUPPORTED if none of T1-T5 is connected at -130 m and at least 90% of the oceanic islands are unconnected. A set of 20 continental (shelf or fragment) islands is run as a positive control and is not part of the verdict.";
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dc:description "global elevation/bathymetry on a 0.1-degree grid (six 60-degree longitude bands)";
dc:license "public domain (US Government work)";
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "Dataset: NOAA NCEI ETOPO 2022 Global Relief Model, 60 arc-second surface elevation (ETOPO_2022_v1_60s_N90W180_surface.nc), accessed through the NCEI THREDDS NetCDF Subset Service with horizStride=6 (0.1-degree nearest-sample grid)";
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