https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA/Head https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA/assertion https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasProvenance https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA/provenance https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasPublicationInfo https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA/pubinfo https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#Nanopublication https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA/assertion https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test http://purl.org/dc/terms/description Two PBDB diversity tables were requested for Animalia genera by stage, one marine and one lacustrine,fluvial. The two youngest stages in the marine table were dropped from both. Foote per-capita origination and extinction were computed where X_bt >= 5 and each environment has at least 20 occurrences. On stages present in both, the difference in rates was regressed on the difference in log10 occurrence counts. The verdict uses the intercept. No subsample was taken. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment Measured: 0.043789 sampling-controlled intercept of freshwater minus marine origination rate (per genus per Myr) (n = 72, origination intercept 0.043789 (one-sided p for <0 0.9911); extinction intercept 0.047047 (one-sided p for <0 0.9998)). Interpretation: Darwin's 'freshwater basins' are the PBDB environments lacustrine and fluvial together. Marine is the comparison he names. Terrestrial is in the claim's scope sentence but is not the contrast this test scores. 'New forms have arisen more slowly' is the Foote per-capita origination rate; 'old forms have been exterminated more slowly' is the Foote per-capita extinction rate. The small area of basins, the severity of competition, and the survival of ancient anomalous forms are not measured. Living-lineage age is not used. A lower fossil rate can be produced by poor preservation, which is why the intercept is taken after the sampling difference rather than from the raw rates. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Claim test of darwin1859-ch04-16: refutes, confidence 0.5 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/darwin-origin/darwin1859-ch04-16/result.json https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets A public fossil occurrence compilation that can be filtered to freshwater (lacustrine or fluvial) versus marine and that returns boundary-crosser counts by stage. Extant-only phylogenies are not substituted. Terrestrial occurrences are not part of this contrast. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType claim-test/0.1.0 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind biological https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation Both intercepts are positive, each with one-sided p < 0.05, so freshwater genera originate and go extinct faster than marine genera after the sampling difference. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Foote rates still depend on preservation. The intercept removes the linear association with the log occurrence-count difference and nothing else. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Freshwater is lacustrine plus fluvial. Brackish, terrestrial and other environments are not in the contrast. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Genera are not Darwin's varieties, and the fossil record of fresh water is the thinner of the two. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst The small area of basins, the severity of competition, and the presence of ancient anomalous forms were not measured. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation On paired stages, the sampling-controlled intercept of (freshwater rate minus marine rate) is negative for both origination and extinction. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion Pre-registered. REFUTES if both intercepts are positive and the one-sided p-value for intercept > 0 is < 0.05 (freshwater faster for both origination and extinction). Any other completed comparison is mixed. Inconclusive if either diversity call fails, if the freshwater envtype is rejected (the two freshwater environments are not added as separate tables), or if fewer than 20 stages meet the pair rule (underpowered). https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence 0.5 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict refutes https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis Per-capita origination and per-capita extinction of animal genera are both lower in freshwater than in the sea, stage by stage, after the difference in sampling is accounted for. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod Paired stages, Foote per-capita rates, OLS intercept of the rate difference on the log10 occurrence-count difference. One-sided p < 0.05. Stages need X_bt >= 5 and at least 20 occurrences in each environment. The two youngest stages are dropped. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion Pre-registered. Two PBDB occs/diversity tables, Animalia, genera, stage resolution: envtype=marine and envtype=lacustrine,fluvial. Foote rates p = ln((X_bt+X_Ft)/X_bt)/dt and q = ln((X_bt+X_bL)/X_bt)/dt. Drop the two youngest marine stages from both tables. A stage is paired only if both environments have X_bt >= 5, duration > 0 and at least 20 occurrences. Sampling control: for each rate, regress the paired difference (freshwater minus marine) on the paired difference in log10 occurrence count, and test the intercept. SUPPORTS if both intercepts are negative and the one-sided p-value for intercept < 0 is < 0.05, with at least 20 paired stages. No subsample and no terrestrial comparison. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/preregistered false https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/claim/darwin1859-ch04-16 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasAssessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test--dataset-1 http://purl.org/dc/terms/description marine and freshwater (lacustrine, fluvial) genus boundary-crosser counts by stage https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test--dataset-1 http://purl.org/dc/terms/license https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Dataset: Paleobiology Database occs/diversity by environment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation https://paleobiodb.org/data1.2/occs/diversity.json?base_name=Animalia&interval=Phanerozoic&count=genera&time_reso=stage&vocab=pbdb&envtype=lacustrine%2Cfluvial https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation https://paleobiodb.org/data1.2/occs/diversity.json?base_name=Animalia&interval=Phanerozoic&count=genera&time_reso=stage&vocab=pbdb&envtype=marine https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasDerivedFrom https://paleobiodb.org/ https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasChecksum sha256:68ba1fa914505f7f29bdb826cb825c8f9c7da0525fc7c8c271aaeaeb7b5fa014 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasChecksum sha256:8bcc154a5c40eae6407a1ca46c2a3238169bb2dc70eadb876dd63fdd489b309d https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA/provenance https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#SoftwareAgent https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label delphisci claim tester (grok-4.7; cursor/darwin-selection-ranges-2c1e) https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#actedOnBehalfOf https://orcid.org/0009-0007-4948-9192 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/usesModel https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/model/grok-4-7 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/model/grok-4-7 http://purl.org/dc/terms/identifier grok-4.7 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/model/grok-4-7 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/LanguageModel https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA/assertion http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7 https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA/assertion http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasDerivedFrom https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/darwin-origin/darwin1859-ch04-16/result.json https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA/assertion http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasGeneratedBy https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA/test https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA/plan http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#hadPlan https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/README.md https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA/test http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#Activity https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA/test http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#qualifiedAssociation https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA/plan https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA/test http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAssociatedWith https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7 https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA/pubinfo https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA http://purl.org/dc/terms/created 2026-11-08T16:24:31.808Z https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA http://purl.org/dc/terms/creator https://orcid.org/0009-0007-4948-9192 https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA http://purl.org/dc/terms/license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasNanopubType https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA http://purl.org/nanopub/x/introduces https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/darwin1859-ch04-16--claim-test https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Claim test of darwin1859-ch04-16: refutes, confidence 0.5 https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/domain https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/domain/darwin-origin-1859 https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA/sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasAlgorithm RSA https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA/sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasPublicKey MIIBIjANBgkqhkiG9w0BAQEFAAOCAQ8AMIIBCgKCAQEAyFHtPB6p0mCjDozxlOY9CmO3nBm7Te3jFbXyLmM+G1tGe47Da0jYIbhkl9Oo1ZjxmCa3LCwlEqK8gj6hEIcL4ahW30JXh9HycfKVk1bugkzMEV15tJdTzAU3sGMFnbNsn43xY2LFLy45tApkRm5byEiM7oRRrooIdwoQKnP4Wzq/bfAoJ9qvW+MGkelyOTd1jbSt+KfmT7xKmDfWzAHddUlWwMX2QJOLxDaffOteTop6ZRgPiNmPJKA/S62Gac9XtSYT3oDkZ6/nr5cxxNLpOyxTf5FPISiCe11xYO/unYjY+mwnOfA8yhJIyx1l0O9I0vpOpn+E5TvyHJV+oSTrvwIDAQAB https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA/sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasSignature kLTr5KyZt5ZgtqUAnXGqpSwsNJEW5C6tMZNvVad/QBjlZc2hkJISnsalgf9acYcLw96bdzKYSYkGzqqbPdIZzn/S3XGRL0HmvtP2SLoS9UXdpPaXl1ozAGZ0/MWN7nWfYp2HH2R1OyZKxmnswR4Er8fwQ3SmQxfYF7h+zd3oPUEDgmWO92FFfF9Y76RnWt/2r9gm8B0hA5/EhyUQdbNjiDWVEAJZSOPd2egDUnL+ewKLkx2kcQS9TxeogvQNa+z5p+RybZZwsi4JPCgkRIqTmcLG/iAYktdEWBx0Bo0fhnug6zHV5sa1B6C576W+VlNMk9pLH85IazyLpKMzf07Qhw== https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA/sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasSignatureTarget https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA https://w3id.org/np/RADRYfLkr5lSacxrMhWSo0F9HYl8f1gHO1NBT_UTvLPAA/sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/signedBy https://orcid.org/0009-0007-4948-9192