https://w3id.org/np/RAArHE-eZtq2Gfxk_DB3FebvTkhd6mHXry6HTfb3-G87s/Head https://w3id.org/np/RAArHE-eZtq2Gfxk_DB3FebvTkhd6mHXry6HTfb3-G87s http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion https://w3id.org/np/RAArHE-eZtq2Gfxk_DB3FebvTkhd6mHXry6HTfb3-G87s/assertion https://w3id.org/np/RAArHE-eZtq2Gfxk_DB3FebvTkhd6mHXry6HTfb3-G87s http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasProvenance https://w3id.org/np/RAArHE-eZtq2Gfxk_DB3FebvTkhd6mHXry6HTfb3-G87s/provenance https://w3id.org/np/RAArHE-eZtq2Gfxk_DB3FebvTkhd6mHXry6HTfb3-G87s http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasPublicationInfo https://w3id.org/np/RAArHE-eZtq2Gfxk_DB3FebvTkhd6mHXry6HTfb3-G87s/pubinfo https://w3id.org/np/RAArHE-eZtq2Gfxk_DB3FebvTkhd6mHXry6HTfb3-G87s http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#Nanopublication https://w3id.org/np/RAArHE-eZtq2Gfxk_DB3FebvTkhd6mHXry6HTfb3-G87s/assertion https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test http://purl.org/dc/terms/description Downloaded the two Tucson-format .crn chronologies from NCEI, parsed the standard index (x1000, 9990 = missing) and sample depth, and took 1390-1910 (az572, 521 yr, complete) and 1420-1910 (az547, 491 yr). Test 1: raw periodogram of the mean-removed index against 5000 AR(1) surrogates matched in lag-1 autocorrelation (0.45, 0.52) and variance; the largest ordinate at 120-200 yr was compared with the pointwise 95th percentile (and with a band-maximum null). Test 2: 101-yr centred running mean (51-yr as sensitivity); local maxima at least 50 yr apart; intervals between successive maxima. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment Measured: 75.4 yr, mean interval between successive maxima of the 101-yr-smoothed Flagstaff index 1390-1910 (intervals 73, 57, 70, 68, 109); strongest 120-200-yr periodogram ordinate at 174 yr has power 1.33 vs AR(1) 95th percentile 1.64 (n = 521, 521-yr window holds ~3.5 cycles of 150 yr; spectral test low-powered by design, so the smoothed-maxima test was pre-registered alongside). Interpretation: Thompson relayed Douglass's (1909, 1914) reading of century-smoothed Flagstaff pine ring widths as showing a ~150-yr climatic cycle. 'Regular period of almost exactly 150 years' is read as a spectral line in the 130-170-yr band that is significant against a red-noise background, together with smoothed maxima recurring at 150 +/- 25 yr. The moisture-versus-temperature attribution is not tested. Modern ITRDB chronologies are standardized indices (age trend removed) built from many trees, not the few raw series Douglass had; they are the best available record of the same trees' growth signal. A 521-yr window holds only ~3.5 cycles of 150 yr, so the spectral test is low-powered and is complemented by the smoothed-maxima test. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Claim test of thompson1917-ch03-24: refutes, confidence 0.8 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/thompson-growth-form/thompson1917-ch03-24/result.json https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets Planned datasets: itrdb-az572-flagstaff-pipo, itrdb-az547-walnut-canyon-pipo https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType claim-test/0.1.0 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind biological https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation Refutes if both tests fail on az572 (no significant 120-200-yr spectral peak against red noise, and smoothed maxima spaced irregularly or outside 125-175 yr). Mixed if exactly one test passes, or if az572 passes but the az547 replicate fails both tests. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Both pre-registered tests fail at both sites: no 120-200-yr spectral ordinate exceeds the red-noise 95th percentile (Flagstaff 174 yr: 1.33 vs 1.64; Walnut Canyon 164 yr: 2.21 vs 3.39), and century-smoothed maxima recur every 57-133 yr (means 75 and 89 yr), not every 150. The smoothed series do oscillate, but irregularly and roughly twice as fast as Thompson's figure; a 51-yr smoothing gives the same conclusion. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst ITRDB standard chronologies remove the age trend by curve fitting; Douglass smoothed raw widths of a few trees. Detrending with conservative curves preserves century-scale variance in most chronologies but could damp a very long oscillation; the 521-yr window itself limits detectable periods to well under ~260 yr for two cycles. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Not pre-registered, reported as observation only: both sites show a ~70-yr spectral peak (Walnut Canyon 70 yr at 2.4x the AR(1) 95th percentile; Flagstaff 74 yr at 1.4x), in the range of known multidecadal drought variability in the Southwest, not the 150-yr cycle claimed. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Sample depth is thin early in the window (Flagstaff: 1-3 trees before 1400, 3-6 in the 1400s; Walnut Canyon: 2-4 trees before 1600), so the 15th-16th-century part of the index is noisy; this weakens any periodicity test but cannot create a regular 150-yr cycle where none is detected. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst The moisture-versus-temperature attribution in the claim was not tested. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation Pre-registered. Primary series: ITRDB chronology az572 (Flagstaff, Arizona, Pinus ponderosa, 'Modern + Archaeological', AD 570-1987), the standard index over the window 1390-1910 (521 yr). Replicate: ITRDB az547 (Walnut Canyon, Pinus ponderosa, 1420-1987) over 1420-1910. Test 1 (spectral): periodogram of the mean-removed annual index; null = AR(1) with the series' lag-1 autocorrelation and variance, 5000 surrogates; pass if the largest periodogram ordinate at periods 120-200 yr exceeds the pointwise 95th percentile of the surrogate periodograms and its period lies in 130-170 yr. Test 2 (regularity of century-smoothed maxima, Douglass's own procedure): 101-yr centred running mean of the index (using data from 1340 on so the smoothed series spans 1390-1910); find local maxima of the smoothed series separated by at least 50 yr; pass if there are at least two intervals between successive maxima and every interval lies in 125-175 yr. Supports if both tests pass on az572. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion Refutes if both tests fail on az572 (no significant 120-200-yr spectral peak against red noise, and smoothed maxima spaced irregularly or outside 125-175 yr). Mixed if exactly one test passes, or if az572 passes but the az547 replicate fails both tests. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence 0.8 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test--dataset-2 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict refutes https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis Annual ring-width chronologies of Arizona ponderosa pine over roughly 1390-1910 contain a regular oscillation with a period of about 150 years, visible as a significant spectral peak near 150 yr and as century-smoothed maxima recurring every ~150 yr. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod Downloaded the two Tucson-format .crn chronologies from NCEI, parsed the standard index (x1000, 9990 = missing) and sample depth, and took 1390-1910 (az572, 521 yr, complete) and 1420-1910 (az547, 491 yr). Test 1: raw periodogram of the mean-removed index against 5000 AR(1) surrogates matched in lag-1 autocorrelation (0.45, 0.52) and variance; the largest ordinate at 120-200 yr was compared with the pointwise 95th percentile (and with a band-maximum null). Test 2: 101-yr centred running mean (51-yr as sensitivity); local maxima at least 50 yr apart; intervals between successive maxima. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion Pre-registered. Primary series: ITRDB chronology az572 (Flagstaff, Arizona, Pinus ponderosa, 'Modern + Archaeological', AD 570-1987), the standard index over the window 1390-1910 (521 yr). Replicate: ITRDB az547 (Walnut Canyon, Pinus ponderosa, 1420-1987) over 1420-1910. Test 1 (spectral): periodogram of the mean-removed annual index; null = AR(1) with the series' lag-1 autocorrelation and variance, 5000 surrogates; pass if the largest periodogram ordinate at periods 120-200 yr exceeds the pointwise 95th percentile of the surrogate periodograms and its period lies in 130-170 yr. Test 2 (regularity of century-smoothed maxima, Douglass's own procedure): 101-yr centred running mean of the index (using data from 1340 on so the smoothed series spans 1390-1910); find local maxima of the smoothed series separated by at least 50 yr; pass if there are at least two intervals between successive maxima and every interval lies in 125-175 yr. Supports if both tests pass on az572. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/preregistered false https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/claim/thompson1917-ch03-24 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasAssessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test--dataset-1 http://purl.org/dc/terms/description primary standard ring-width index, window 1390-1910 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test--dataset-1 http://purl.org/dc/terms/license NOAA NCEI paleoclimatology data: public domain / open https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Dataset: ITRDB chronology az572, Flagstaff Modern+Archaeological, Pinus ponderosa (Dean & Robinson), AD 570-1987 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/chronologies/northamerica/usa/az572.crn https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasDerivedFrom https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/paleoclimatology/tree-ring https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasChecksum sha256:c4726092663966bd6a4d783c9805cf8c2a3e653fc9e1496d459a2d4a1dd4ff4f https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test--dataset-2 http://purl.org/dc/terms/description replicate, window 1420-1910 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test--dataset-2 http://purl.org/dc/terms/license NOAA NCEI paleoclimatology data: public domain / open https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test--dataset-2 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test--dataset-2 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Dataset: ITRDB chronology az547, Walnut Canyon, Pinus ponderosa (Graybill), AD 1420-1987 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test--dataset-2 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/chronologies/northamerica/usa/az547.crn https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test--dataset-2 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasDerivedFrom https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/paleoclimatology/tree-ring https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test--dataset-2 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasChecksum sha256:6b6aae0ab2072f2372e63b0c166f99f3fda0c7658ef46c2ab66956beb8739a61 https://w3id.org/np/RAArHE-eZtq2Gfxk_DB3FebvTkhd6mHXry6HTfb3-G87s/provenance https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#SoftwareAgent https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label delphisci claim tester (claude-fable-5.1; 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