[ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/np/RAArHE-eZtq2Gfxk_DB3FebvTkhd6mHXry6HTfb3-G87s/provenance", "@graph": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1", "@type": [ "http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#SoftwareAgent" ], "http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label": [ { "@value": "delphisci claim tester (claude-fable-5.1; cursor/claim-tests-thompson-efb7)" } ], "http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#actedOnBehalfOf": [ { "@id": "https://orcid.org/0009-0007-4948-9192" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/usesModel": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/model/claude-fable-5-1" } ] }, { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/model/claude-fable-5-1", "http://purl.org/dc/terms/identifier": [ { "@value": "claude-fable-5.1" } ], "@type": [ "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/LanguageModel" ] }, { "@id": "https://w3id.org/np/RAArHE-eZtq2Gfxk_DB3FebvTkhd6mHXry6HTfb3-G87s/assertion", "http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1" } ], "http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasDerivedFrom": [ { "@id": "https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/thompson-growth-form/thompson1917-ch03-24/result.json" } ], "http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasGeneratedBy": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/np/RAArHE-eZtq2Gfxk_DB3FebvTkhd6mHXry6HTfb3-G87s/test" } ] }, { "@id": "https://w3id.org/np/RAArHE-eZtq2Gfxk_DB3FebvTkhd6mHXry6HTfb3-G87s/test", "@type": [ "http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#Activity" ], "http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#qualifiedAssociation": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/np/RAArHE-eZtq2Gfxk_DB3FebvTkhd6mHXry6HTfb3-G87s/plan" } ], "http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAssociatedWith": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1" } ] }, { "@id": "https://w3id.org/np/RAArHE-eZtq2Gfxk_DB3FebvTkhd6mHXry6HTfb3-G87s/plan", "http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#hadPlan": [ { "@id": "https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/README.md" } ] } ] }, { "@id": "https://w3id.org/np/RAArHE-eZtq2Gfxk_DB3FebvTkhd6mHXry6HTfb3-G87s/assertion", "@graph": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test", "http://purl.org/dc/terms/description": [ { "@value": "Downloaded the two Tucson-format .crn chronologies from NCEI, parsed the standard index (x1000, 9990 = missing) and sample depth, and took 1390-1910 (az572, 521 yr, complete) and 1420-1910 (az547, 491 yr). Test 1: raw periodogram of the mean-removed index against 5000 AR(1) surrogates matched in lag-1 autocorrelation (0.45, 0.52) and variance; the largest ordinate at 120-200 yr was compared with the pointwise 95th percentile (and with a band-maximum null). Test 2: 101-yr centred running mean (51-yr as sensitivity); local maxima at least 50 yr apart; intervals between successive maxima." } ], "@type": [ "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment" ], "http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment": [ { "@value": "Measured: 75.4 yr, mean interval between successive maxima of the 101-yr-smoothed Flagstaff index 1390-1910 (intervals 73, 57, 70, 68, 109); strongest 120-200-yr periodogram ordinate at 174 yr has power 1.33 vs AR(1) 95th percentile 1.64 (n = 521, 521-yr window holds ~3.5 cycles of 150 yr; spectral test low-powered by design, so the smoothed-maxima test was pre-registered alongside). Interpretation: Thompson relayed Douglass's (1909, 1914) reading of century-smoothed Flagstaff pine ring widths as showing a ~150-yr climatic cycle. 'Regular period of almost exactly 150 years' is read as a spectral line in the 130-170-yr band that is significant against a red-noise background, together with smoothed maxima recurring at 150 +/- 25 yr. The moisture-versus-temperature attribution is not tested. Modern ITRDB chronologies are standardized indices (age trend removed) built from many trees, not the few raw series Douglass had; they are the best available record of the same trees' growth signal. A 521-yr window holds only ~3.5 cycles of 150 yr, so the spectral test is low-powered and is complemented by the smoothed-maxima test." } ], "http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label": [ { "@value": "Claim test of thompson1917-ch03-24: refutes, confidence 0.8" } ], "http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso": [ { "@id": "https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/thompson-growth-form/thompson1917-ch03-24/result.json" } ], "http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-claude-fable-5-1" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets": [ { "@value": "Planned datasets: itrdb-az572-flagstaff-pipo, itrdb-az547-walnut-canyon-pipo" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType": [ { "@value": "claim-test/0.1.0" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind": [ { "@value": "biological" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation": [ { "@value": "Refutes if both tests fail on az572 (no significant 120-200-yr spectral peak against red noise, and smoothed maxima spaced irregularly or outside 125-175 yr). Mixed if exactly one test passes, or if az572 passes but the az547 replicate fails both tests." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst": [ { "@value": "Both pre-registered tests fail at both sites: no 120-200-yr spectral ordinate exceeds the red-noise 95th percentile (Flagstaff 174 yr: 1.33 vs 1.64; Walnut Canyon 164 yr: 2.21 vs 3.39), and century-smoothed maxima recur every 57-133 yr (means 75 and 89 yr), not every 150. The smoothed series do oscillate, but irregularly and roughly twice as fast as Thompson's figure; a 51-yr smoothing gives the same conclusion." }, { "@value": "ITRDB standard chronologies remove the age trend by curve fitting; Douglass smoothed raw widths of a few trees. Detrending with conservative curves preserves century-scale variance in most chronologies but could damp a very long oscillation; the 521-yr window itself limits detectable periods to well under ~260 yr for two cycles." }, { "@value": "Not pre-registered, reported as observation only: both sites show a ~70-yr spectral peak (Walnut Canyon 70 yr at 2.4x the AR(1) 95th percentile; Flagstaff 74 yr at 1.4x), in the range of known multidecadal drought variability in the Southwest, not the 150-yr cycle claimed." }, { "@value": "Sample depth is thin early in the window (Flagstaff: 1-3 trees before 1400, 3-6 in the 1400s; Walnut Canyon: 2-4 trees before 1600), so the 15th-16th-century part of the index is noisy; this weakens any periodicity test but cannot create a regular 150-yr cycle where none is detected." }, { "@value": "The moisture-versus-temperature attribution in the claim was not tested." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation": [ { "@value": "Pre-registered. Primary series: ITRDB chronology az572 (Flagstaff, Arizona, Pinus ponderosa, 'Modern + Archaeological', AD 570-1987), the standard index over the window 1390-1910 (521 yr). Replicate: ITRDB az547 (Walnut Canyon, Pinus ponderosa, 1420-1987) over 1420-1910. Test 1 (spectral): periodogram of the mean-removed annual index; null = AR(1) with the series' lag-1 autocorrelation and variance, 5000 surrogates; pass if the largest periodogram ordinate at periods 120-200 yr exceeds the pointwise 95th percentile of the surrogate periodograms and its period lies in 130-170 yr. Test 2 (regularity of century-smoothed maxima, Douglass's own procedure): 101-yr centred running mean of the index (using data from 1340 on so the smoothed series spans 1390-1910); find local maxima of the smoothed series separated by at least 50 yr; pass if there are at least two intervals between successive maxima and every interval lies in 125-175 yr. Supports if both tests pass on az572." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion": [ { "@value": "Refutes if both tests fail on az572 (no significant 120-200-yr spectral peak against red noise, and smoothed maxima spaced irregularly or outside 125-175 yr). Mixed if exactly one test passes, or if az572 passes but the az547 replicate fails both tests." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence": [ { "@value": "0.8", "@type": "http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#double" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence": [ { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test--dataset-1" }, { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test--dataset-2" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict": [ { "@value": "refutes" } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis": [ { "@value": "Annual ring-width chronologies of Arizona ponderosa pine over roughly 1390-1910 contain a regular oscillation with a period of about 150 years, visible as a significant spectral peak near 150 yr and as century-smoothed maxima recurring every ~150 yr." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod": [ { "@value": "Downloaded the two Tucson-format .crn chronologies from NCEI, parsed the standard index (x1000, 9990 = missing) and sample depth, and took 1390-1910 (az572, 521 yr, complete) and 1420-1910 (az547, 491 yr). Test 1: raw periodogram of the mean-removed index against 5000 AR(1) surrogates matched in lag-1 autocorrelation (0.45, 0.52) and variance; the largest ordinate at 120-200 yr was compared with the pointwise 95th percentile (and with a band-maximum null). Test 2: 101-yr centred running mean (51-yr as sensitivity); local maxima at least 50 yr apart; intervals between successive maxima." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion": [ { "@value": "Pre-registered. Primary series: ITRDB chronology az572 (Flagstaff, Arizona, Pinus ponderosa, 'Modern + Archaeological', AD 570-1987), the standard index over the window 1390-1910 (521 yr). Replicate: ITRDB az547 (Walnut Canyon, Pinus ponderosa, 1420-1987) over 1420-1910. Test 1 (spectral): periodogram of the mean-removed annual index; null = AR(1) with the series' lag-1 autocorrelation and variance, 5000 surrogates; pass if the largest periodogram ordinate at periods 120-200 yr exceeds the pointwise 95th percentile of the surrogate periodograms and its period lies in 130-170 yr. Test 2 (regularity of century-smoothed maxima, Douglass's own procedure): 101-yr centred running mean of the index (using data from 1340 on so the smoothed series spans 1390-1910); find local maxima of the smoothed series separated by at least 50 yr; pass if there are at least two intervals between successive maxima and every interval lies in 125-175 yr. Supports if both tests pass on az572." } ], "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/preregistered": [ { "@value": "false", "@type": "http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#boolean" } ] }, { "@id": "https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/thompson1917-ch03-24--claim-test--dataset-1", "http://purl.org/dc/terms/description": [ { "@value": "primary standard ring-width index, window 1390-1910" } ], "http://purl.org/dc/terms/license": [ { "@value": "NOAA NCEI paleoclimatology data: public domain / open" } ], "@type": [ "https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem" ], "http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label": [ { "@value": "Dataset: ITRDB chronology az572, Flagstaff Modern+Archaeological, Pinus ponderosa (Dean & Robinson), AD 570-1987" } ], "http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation": [ { "@id": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/chronologies/northamerica/usa/az572.crn" } ], "http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasDerivedFrom": [ { "@id": 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