https://w3id.org/np/RA7g-0792jDdxnv5xwpkKSoTLvPTE2Wx6Q_4rAosxH8Do/Head https://w3id.org/np/RA7g-0792jDdxnv5xwpkKSoTLvPTE2Wx6Q_4rAosxH8Do http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion https://w3id.org/np/RA7g-0792jDdxnv5xwpkKSoTLvPTE2Wx6Q_4rAosxH8Do/assertion https://w3id.org/np/RA7g-0792jDdxnv5xwpkKSoTLvPTE2Wx6Q_4rAosxH8Do http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasProvenance https://w3id.org/np/RA7g-0792jDdxnv5xwpkKSoTLvPTE2Wx6Q_4rAosxH8Do/provenance https://w3id.org/np/RA7g-0792jDdxnv5xwpkKSoTLvPTE2Wx6Q_4rAosxH8Do http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasPublicationInfo https://w3id.org/np/RA7g-0792jDdxnv5xwpkKSoTLvPTE2Wx6Q_4rAosxH8Do/pubinfo https://w3id.org/np/RA7g-0792jDdxnv5xwpkKSoTLvPTE2Wx6Q_4rAosxH8Do http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#Nanopublication https://w3id.org/np/RA7g-0792jDdxnv5xwpkKSoTLvPTE2Wx6Q_4rAosxH8Do/assertion https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test http://purl.org/dc/terms/description Joined NHANES 2017-2018 RHQ_J to DEMO_J on SEQN, kept females aged 20 or older with RHQ010 from 6 to 19 and a positive interview weight, and computed the weighted median defined in the pre-registration. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment Measured: 12 years, survey-weighted median age at menarche (n = 2448). Interpretation: The tested clause is the quote's catamenia: age at first menstrual period. The claim also says the breasts swell at the same age. No public individual-level thelarche variable was identified in this NHANES file, so breast development is not scored. A pass or a fail is a result about menarche. RIAGENDR 2 (female) is applied when the column is present. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Claim test of aristotle-ha07-02: mixed, confidence 0.45 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/aristotle-biology/aristotle-ha07-02/result.json https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets A public probability sample that asks adult women their age at first menstrual period in completed years, with published interview weights. One pre-specified NHANES cycle. Thelarche is not in this file and is not given a pass/fail rule. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType claim-test/0.1.0 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind biological https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation That median is below 12 or above 16. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst The cumulative interview weight first reaches one half inside the median age year, within 0.02 of one half, so the weighted median sits on a boundary between two integer ages. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst The public codebook was read for variable names and code meanings before registration. The codebook's frequency totals for RHQ010 were visible on that page (a range count, not the median). The median was not computed, and the XPT files were not downloaded. Thresholds are the claim's 'about fourteen', not a fit to those totals. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation The survey-weighted median age at menarche for adult women in this cycle falls between 13 and 15 years inclusive. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion Pre-registered. Refuted if that weighted median is < 12.0 or > 16.0. Mixed if the median is in [12.0, 13.0) or (15.0, 16.0]. Inconclusive with reason underpowered if fewer than 200 valid women remain, and with reason data-unavailable if the public XPT files cannot be retrieved or RHQ010 or WTINT2YR is absent. Codes 0 (not started), 20 (20 or older), 777 and 999 are excluded rather than imputed. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence 0.45 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict mixed https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis If the menstruation clause holds, the age at first menstrual period among adult women is about fourteen years. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod Weighted median on the interview weight. No regression on covariates. The window [13, 15] is the operational meaning of 'about fourteen', one year on either side. Values outside [12, 16] are too far from fourteen to count as 'about'. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-02--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion Pre-registered. In NHANES 2017-2018, among females aged 20 years or older at interview, with RHQ010 in the integer range 6 to 19 and WTINT2YR > 0, the weighted median of RHQ010 is in the closed interval [13.0, 15.0] years, and at least 200 women contribute. 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