https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk/Head https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk/assertion https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasProvenance https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk/provenance https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasPublicationInfo https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk/pubinfo https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#Nanopublication https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk/assertion https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test http://purl.org/dc/terms/description Restricted NHANES 2017-2018 to women with RHD043 = 7 and RHQ060 in 20-59, computed the weighted median and 90th percentile, and applied the pre-registered median thresholds. NCHS birth rates were summarized for the latest year and not used for the verdict. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#comment Measured: 50 years, survey-weighted median age at last menstrual period among natural menopause (n = 771). Interpretation: 'About their fortieth year' is the center of the distribution, operationalized as a weighted median from 38 through 43. A median of 47 or more means most women have not stopped near forty. 'Even to the fiftieth year' is the upper tail. 'No case beyond that age' would require birth counts at 51 or older; the birth-rate file stops at 45-49, which was established from the age-group labels before any rate was used, so that clause is not scored. RHD190 is top-coded at 45 in the NHANES codebook and is not used. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Claim test of aristotle-ha07-14: refutes, confidence 0.8 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#seeAlso https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/aristotle-biology/aristotle-ha07-14/result.json https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/admissibleDatasets A public survey that separates natural menopause from hysterectomy and records age at last period in years, plus a public vital-statistics series of birth rates by maternal age. NHANES 2017-2018 and the NCHS birth-rate table are the named files. The birth-rate table is admissible only as a description of ages it actually bins. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/assessmentType claim-test/0.1.0 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/dataKind biological https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/disconfirmingObservation The weighted median age at natural menopause is 47 or older, or 35 or younger. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/evidenceAgainst Codebook value labels for RHD043, RHQ060 and RHD190 were read before registration, including the fact that RHD190 collapses 45 and older into one code and that RHQ060's numeric values are labelled as a 20-to-59 range. The median was not computed and the XPT was not downloaded. Age-group labels of the NCHS birth-rate table were listed before registration; rates were not used to set thresholds. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/expectedObservation Among women who report natural menopause, the center of the age-at-last-period distribution is about 40 and the upper tail reaches about 50. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/failCriterion Pre-registered. Refuted if the weighted median age at last menstrual period, in the set above, is >= 47 or <= 35, with n >= 100. Those medians are not 'about forty' for most women. Mixed if the median is in (35, 47) and the fail rule does not apply, including a median inside [38, 43], because the beyond-fifty clause is unmeasured. Inconclusive with reason underpowered if n < 100, and data-unavailable if RHQ060, RHD043 or the weights cannot be retrieved. Birth rates at 40-44 and 45-49 in the latest year of the NCHS table are reported and do not set the verdict. Codes 19 and 60 on RHQ060 are censored labels and are excluded. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasConfidence 0.8 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasEvidence https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test--dataset-2 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasVerdict refutes https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hypothesis If the claim holds, most women stop menstruating at about forty, with a tail that reaches about fifty, and childbearing is recorded through the forties. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/inferenceMethod Weighted median and weighted 90th percentile on WTINT2YR, restricted to RHD043 code 7. The verdict compares the median with fixed ages taken from the sentence (about forty, versus a center nearer fifty). Birth rates are not a test of the universal negative past fifty. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/passCriterion Pre-registered. This test cannot return supports. The NCHS birth-rate table's oldest age group is 45-49 years, so it has no bin for births beyond fifty, and a universal negative ('no case on record' past that age) is unscored. A menopause pattern that matches the claim is therefore mixed, not a pass. Match would have required, and is reported but not allowed to pass: weighted median of RHQ060 in [38, 43] and weighted 90th percentile in [48, 55], among women with RHD043 = 7 (Menopause/Change of life) and RHQ060 in 20-59, age at interview >= 20, WTINT2YR > 0, n >= 100. The weighted percentile is the smallest age at which cumulative interview weight reaches the stated fraction of total weight. https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/preregistered false https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/claim/aristotle-ha07-14 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasAssessment https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test--dataset-1 http://purl.org/dc/terms/description age at last menstrual period among women coded as menopause https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test--dataset-1 http://purl.org/dc/terms/license public domain (U.S. government work) https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Dataset: NHANES 2017-2018 reproductive health questionnaire and demographics https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation https://wwwn.cdc.gov/Nchs/Data/Nhanes/Public/2017/DataFiles/DEMO_J.xpt https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation https://wwwn.cdc.gov/Nchs/Data/Nhanes/Public/2017/DataFiles/RHQ_J.xpt https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test--dataset-1 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasDerivedFrom https://wwwn.cdc.gov/nchs/nhanes/search/datapage.aspx?Component=Questionnaire&Cycle=2017-2018 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasChecksum sha256:c0b46e0345ea19404928656277c8b0d10b0cca348a9b2fe4fc3c67e8b7ee73ec https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test--dataset-1 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasChecksum sha256:c919896216154ea207470dd84e428f5fdd65ced39735148c78fb6032e0b77a7b https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test--dataset-2 http://purl.org/dc/terms/description descriptive birth rates at 40-44 and 45-49; no age bin past 49 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test--dataset-2 http://purl.org/dc/terms/license public domain (U.S. government work) https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test--dataset-2 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/EvidenceItem https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test--dataset-2 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Dataset: NCHS - Birth Rates for Females by Age Group: United States https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test--dataset-2 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#atLocation https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/yt7u-eiyg/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test--dataset-2 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasDerivedFrom https://data.cdc.gov/d/yt7u-eiyg https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/evidence/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test--dataset-2 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/hasChecksum sha256:ffd01792f2e7e2d3c7f0d1381f14673f9967a8f08ab43b09a9c3590dbb606d91 https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk/provenance https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#SoftwareAgent https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label delphisci claim tester (grok-4.7; cursor/aristotle-biology-claim-tests-c447) https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7 http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#actedOnBehalfOf https://orcid.org/0009-0007-4948-9192 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7 https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/usesModel https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/model/grok-4-7 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/model/grok-4-7 http://purl.org/dc/terms/identifier grok-4.7 https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/model/grok-4-7 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/LanguageModel https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk/assertion http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7 https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk/assertion http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasDerivedFrom https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/aristotle-biology/aristotle-ha07-14/result.json https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk/assertion http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasGeneratedBy https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk/test https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk/plan http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#hadPlan https://github.com/fractastical/delphisci/blob/bf2af6ee0a84e23ffa6414ad7a0a50a8c276506e/test-data/claim-tests/README.md https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk/test http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#Activity https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk/test http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#qualifiedAssociation https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk/plan https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk/test http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAssociatedWith https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/agent/delphisci-claim-tester-grok-4-7 https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk/pubinfo https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk http://purl.org/dc/terms/created 2026-11-08T16:24:31.777Z https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk http://purl.org/dc/terms/creator https://orcid.org/0009-0007-4948-9192 https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk http://purl.org/dc/terms/license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasNanopubType https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/Assessment https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk http://purl.org/nanopub/x/introduces https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/assessment/aristotle-ha07-14--claim-test https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Claim test of aristotle-ha07-14: refutes, confidence 0.8 https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk https://w3id.org/delphi/ontology/domain https://w3id.org/delphi/resource/domain/aristotle-biology https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk/sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasAlgorithm RSA https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk/sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasPublicKey MIIBIjANBgkqhkiG9w0BAQEFAAOCAQ8AMIIBCgKCAQEAyFHtPB6p0mCjDozxlOY9CmO3nBm7Te3jFbXyLmM+G1tGe47Da0jYIbhkl9Oo1ZjxmCa3LCwlEqK8gj6hEIcL4ahW30JXh9HycfKVk1bugkzMEV15tJdTzAU3sGMFnbNsn43xY2LFLy45tApkRm5byEiM7oRRrooIdwoQKnP4Wzq/bfAoJ9qvW+MGkelyOTd1jbSt+KfmT7xKmDfWzAHddUlWwMX2QJOLxDaffOteTop6ZRgPiNmPJKA/S62Gac9XtSYT3oDkZ6/nr5cxxNLpOyxTf5FPISiCe11xYO/unYjY+mwnOfA8yhJIyx1l0O9I0vpOpn+E5TvyHJV+oSTrvwIDAQAB https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk/sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasSignature sMZqOcxq4s8ovk2szFND83SO6MAWWNjtPmgkGC9mA8W+lBO8d12ezik8n0bivvx9K7kMdAKQwF0q5UxEtdWKKtfipjMrmcHHAE8N3piHg2/KyXqXef8n0W1Tpyh64TqEoijEK+sfyXzoSuTjQIrtPOhiy8gg+Kb8ArGiYkNe/BU+t7J5YWtVB+vJvn/fkabuOnj/Nn6KJjwi4NdkVYOgCw7mPP0f+0nflGIKLIxY6X//0PNmXiHznpxQmzaxc5hps3bWjNphVfEDyM8YpsMGtnfnUHumimBbUvwhXz53bSTe5ijNPyXpn6vqD6EclLNQBgNsUwFTe+T4ZjyMZ/Y3xw== https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk/sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasSignatureTarget https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk https://w3id.org/np/RA-bDkt8IdgTRzxyinJKNVOOKWufNkpjir8a8cCjq-CQk/sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/signedBy https://orcid.org/0009-0007-4948-9192